Sex,lies, and post-trial publicity: The reputation repair strategies of Dominique Strauss-Kahn

The object of this investigation is the only interview given so far by the former Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK), after being declared innocent of sexual assault charges brought against him by New York's District Attorney. During his television appearance, DSK used some rhetorical and, more precisely, dramaturgical image repair strategies, but also combined them with other communication strategies. This article analyzes said strategies and suggests that image repair theory researchers must include other analytical elements, strategic as well as contextual, when researching responses to crises. Furthermore, this study also discusses the role of culture and post-trial publicity in image repair strategies.     

Integer-valued autoregressive processes with periodic structure

In this paper the periodic integer-valued autoregressive model of order one with period T, driven by a periodic sequence of independent Poisson-distributed random variables, is studied in some detail. Basic probabilistic and statistical properties of this model are discussed. Moreover, parameter estimation is also addressed. Specifically, the methods of estimation under analysis are the method of moments, least squares-type and likelihood-based ones. Their performance is compared through a simulation study.     

Analysis of individual- and time-specific covariate effects on survival of Serinus serinus in north-eastern Spain

We developed models for the analysis of recapture data for 2678 serins ( Serinus serinus ) ringed in north-eastern Spain since 1985. We investigated several time- and individual-specific factors as potential predictors of overall mortality and dispersal patterns, and of gender and age differences in these patterns. Time-specific covariates included minimum daily temperature, days below freezing, and abundance of a strong competitor, siskins ( Carduelis spinus ) during winter, and maximum temperature and rainfall during summer. Individual covariates included body mass (i.e. body condition), and wing length (i.e. flying ability), and interactions between body mass and environmental factors. We found little support of a predictive relationship between environmental factors and survival, but good evidence of relationships between body mass and survival, especially for juveniles. Juvenile survival appears to vary in a curvilinear manner with increasing mass, suggesting that there may exist an optimal mass beyond which increases are detrimental. The mass-survival relationship does seem to be influenced by at least one environmental factor, namely the abundance of wintering siskins. When siskins are abundant, increases in body mass appear to relate strongly to increasing survival. When siskin numbers are average or low the relationship is largely reversed, suggesting that the presence of strong competition mitigates the otherwise largely negative aspects of greater body mass. Wing length in juveniles also appears to be related positively to survival, perhaps largely due to the influence of a few unusually large juveniles with adult-like survival. Further work is needed to test these relationships, ideally under experimentation.     

Revisiting corporate governance through the lens of the Spanish evidence

The purpose of this study is to illustrate the characteristics of the Spanish corporate governance system and especially describe the diffusion of each mechanism among listed firms, in comparison with other industrialized countries. In doing so, we identify idiosyncratic traits of the Spanish corporate governance model that points up how the dichotomy between outsider- and insider-oriented models is simplistic and does not fit with the Spanish context. We argue, instead, that corporate governance has evolved in Spain towards a hybrid model that is situated in an intermediate position between the two aforementioned systems. The result of this hybridization is a system characterized by a new role for the state as a regulator, the presence of large blockholders, and a higher free float of capital on the stock market. Still, it is a very weak market for corporate control, and has reduced incorporation of Anglo-Saxon practices such as information transparency, board independence, or variable compensation packages for the management.     

Analysis of individual- and time-specific covariate effects on survival of Serinus serinus in north-eastern Spain

We developed models for the analysis of recapture data for 2678 serins ( Serinus serinus ) ringed in north-eastern Spain since 1985. We investigated several time- and individual-specific factors as potential predictors of overall mortality and dispersal patterns, and of gender and age differences in these patterns. Time-specific covariates included minimum daily temperature, days below freezing, and abundance of a strong competitor, siskins ( Carduelis spinus ) during winter, and maximum temperature and rainfall during summer. Individual covariates included body mass (i.e. body condition), and wing length (i.e. flying ability), and interactions between body mass and environmental factors. We found little support of a predictive relationship between environmental factors and survival, but good evidence of relationships between body mass and survival, especially for juveniles. Juvenile survival appears to vary in a curvilinear manner with increasing mass, suggesting that there may exist an optimal mass beyond which increases are detrimental. The mass-survival relationship does seem to be influenced by at least one environmental factor, namely the abundance of wintering siskins. When siskins are abundant, increases in body mass appear to relate strongly to increasing survival. When siskin numbers are average or low the relationship is largely reversed, suggesting that the presence of strong competition mitigates the otherwise largely negative aspects of greater body mass. Wing length in juveniles also appears to be related positively to survival, perhaps largely due to the influence of a few unusually large juveniles with adult-like survival. Further work is needed to test these relationships, ideally under experimentation.     

Statistical methods for the analysis of high-throughput data based on functional profiles derived from the Gene Ontology

The increasing availability of high-throughput data, that is, massive quantities of molecular biology data arising from different types of experiments such as gene expression or protein microarrays, leads to the necessity of methods for summarizing the available information. As annotation quality improves it is becoming common to rely on biological annotation databases, such as the Gene Ontology (GO), to build functional profiles which characterize a set of genes or proteins using the distribution of their annotations in the database. In this work we describe a statistical model for such profiles, provide methods to compare profiles and develop inferential procedures to assess this comparison. An R-package implementing the methods will be available at publication time.     

On the Bayesian analysis of categorical data: the problem of nonresponse

It is demonstrated how a suitably chosen prior for the frequency parameters can streamline the Bayesian analysis of categorical data with missing entries due to nonresponse or other causes. The two cases where the data follow the Multinomial or the Hypergeometric model are treated separately. In the first case it is adequate to restrict the prior (for the cell probabilities) to the class of Dirichlet distributions. In the case of the Hypergeometric model it is convenient to select a prior from the class of Dirichlet-Multinomial (DM) distributions. The DM distributions are studied in some details.     

Unit Roots: Bayesian Significance Test

The unit root problem plays a central role in empirical applications in the time series econometric literature. However, significance tests developed under the frequentist tradition present various conceptual problems that jeopardize the power of these tests, especially for small samples. Bayesian alternatives, although having interesting interpretations and being precisely defined, experience problems due to the fact that that the hypothesis of interest in this case is sharp or precise. The Bayesian significance test used in this article, for the unit root hypothesis, is based solely on the posterior density function, without the need of imposing positive probabilities to sets of zero Lebesgue measure. Furthermore, it is conducted under strict observance of the likelihood principle. It was designed mainly for testing sharp null hypotheses and it is called FBST for Full Bayesian Significance Test.     

Waiting time to exhaust lottery numbers

Questions related to lotteries are usually of interest to the public since people think there is a magic formula which will help them to win lottery draws. This note shows how to compute the expected waiting time to observe specific numbers in a sequence of lottery draws and show that surprising facts are expected to occur.