Using Deductive Reasoning to Identify Unhappy Communities

Social Indicators Research - The complex interplay between media and population sentiment is a well-known, yet hard to model, phenomenon. The extrema of individual sentiment (euphoria and...     

An Adversarial Risk Analysis Framework for Cybersecurity

Risk analysis is an essential methodology for cybersecurity as it allows organizations to deal with cyber threats potentially affecting them, prioritize the defense of their assets, and decide what security controls should be implemented. Many risk analysis methods are present in cybersecurity models, compliance frameworks, and international standards. However, most of them employ risk matrices, which suffer shortcomings that may lead to suboptimal resource allocations. We propose a comprehensive framework for cybersecurity risk analysis, covering the presence of both intentional and nonintentional threats and the use of insurance as part of the security portfolio. A simplified case study illustrates the proposed framework, serving as template for more complex problems.     

Bayesian inference in a matrix normal dynamic linear model with unknown covariance matrices

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a matrix normal dynamic linear model when the variance and covariance matrices of its error terms are unknown and can be changing over time. Given that the analysis is not conjugate, we use simulation methods based on Monte Carlo Markov chains to estimate the parameters of the model. This analysis allows us to carry out a dynamic principal components analysis in a set of multivariate time series. Furthermore, it permits the treatment of series with different lengths and with missing data. The methodology is illustrated with two empirical examples: the value added distribution of the firms operating in the manufacturing sector of the countries participating in the BACH project, and the joint evolution of a set of international stock-market indices.     

Characterizations and ordering properties based on log-odds functions

In this paper, we obtain some general results on characterizations of probability distributions from relationships between conditional moment, failure rate, and log-odds rate functions. We also study stochastic orders and classes based on the log-odds rate function and some relationships with usual stochastic orderings and classes. Some characterizations and ordering properties are obtained by using weighted distributions.     

A multiple group item response theory model with centered skew-normal latent trait distributions under a Bayesian framework

Very often, in psychometric research, as in educational assessment, it is necessary to analyze item response from clustered respondents. The multiple group item response theory (IRT) model proposed by Bock and Zimowski [12] provides a useful framework for analyzing such type of data. In this model, the selected groups of respondents are of specific interest such that group-specific population distributions need to be defined. The usual assumption for parameter estimation in this model, which is that the latent traits are random variables following different symmetric normal distributions, has been questioned in many works found in the IRT literature. Furthermore, when this assumption does not hold, misleading inference can result. In this paper, we consider that the latent traits for each group follow different skew-normal distributions, under the centered parameterization. We named it skew multiple group IRT model. This modeling extends the works of Azevedo et al. [4], Bazán et al. [11] and Bock and Zimowski [12] (concerning the latent trait distribution). Our approach ensures that the model is identifiable. We propose and compare, concerning convergence issues, two Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) algorithms for parameter estimation. A simulation study was performed in order to evaluate parameter recovery for the proposed model and the selected algorithm concerning convergence issues. Results reveal that the proposed algorithm recovers properly all model parameters. Furthermore, we analyzed a real data set which presents asymmetry concerning the latent traits distribution. The results obtained by using our approach confirmed the presence of negative asymmetry for some latent trait distributions.     

A liberalism gone wrong? Muscular liberalism and the quest for monocultural difference

On 5 February 2011, the British Prime Minister, David Cameron, addressed the Munich Security Conference on the theme of ‘radicalisation and Islamic extremism’. In his view this was the ‘root cause of the problem’ of ‘home-grown terrorism’ that allegedly thrived in an environment of passive tolerance, a liberalism gone wrong. The solution asserted Cameron was for British society (and by extension Western societies in general) to promote actively those values that allegedly defined it. What was needed was ‘a much more active, muscular liberalism’. This was a curious suggestion given that such an idea harks back to a much earlier time when Britannia still ruled the waves. It might well be dismissed as a throwaway line, if it was not for the fact that it was presented as a solution to a specific problem allegedly rooted in the specific context of managing diasporas and their attendant identities. But what is this idea of ‘muscular liberalism’? What does the resurrection of this mostly forgotten use of the idea of ‘muscularity’ signify in the current era? What might the Prime Minister's appeal to this sort of language mean in terms of illuminating the temper of our times? This paper aims to explore those questions. It is argued that the invocation of ‘muscular liberalism’ is more than a revealing discursive shift exposing the insecurities generated by the presence and political influence of diasporic cultures, as others have rightly noted. Beyond these insecurities lie even deeper fears, specifically that liberalism may be succeeding in empowering those who have previously been considered unimportant or unworthy of inclusion within the idea of British identity. Muscular liberalism, it is argued, is all about ensuring that the very values taken to be archetypically liberal are simultaneously applauded and neutralised.     

Foundations for collaborative performance measurement

In the past years, companies have been establishing collaboration relationships as a means to become more competitive. This type of relationship presents some special characteristics that need to be managed properly in order to be successful. Performance measurement systems (PMSs) may support the management of such relationships by aiding to define and collect the necessary information. However, further understanding is needed to identify the elements and interactions among collaborative elements and how they can be integrated within a PMS. The aim of this article is twofold. The first purpose is to analyse the contents of works that tackle interorganisational and collaborative relationships as well as PMSs for interorganisational and collaborative environments by defining a typology. The typology comprises two dimensions: degree of relationships among collaboration elements and integration of collaboration within PMS. The second purpose is to perform a comparative study of the works for identifying main strengths and gaps for future research.     

The Meaningful Roles Intervention: An Evolutionary Approach to Reducing Bullying and Increasing Prosocial Behavior

Bullying is a problem that affects adolescents worldwide. Efforts to prevent bullying have been moderately successful at best, or iatrogenic at worst. We offer an explanation for this limited success by employing an evolutionary‐psychological perspective to analyze antibullying interventions. We argue that bullying is a goal‐directed behavior that is sensitive to benefits as well as costs, and that interventions must address these benefits. This perspective led us to develop a novel antibullying intervention, Meaningful Roles, which offers bullies prosocial alternatives—meaningful roles and responsibilities implemented through a school jobs program and reinforced through peer‐to‐peer praise notes—that effectively meet the same status goals as bullying behavior. We describe this new intervention and how its theoretical evolutionary roots may be applicable to other intervention programs.     

Modeling population density guided by land use-cover change model: a case study of Bogotá

Population and Environment - Population densities provide valuable spatial information to identify populations at risk, quantify mobility, and improve our understanding of future urban settlements....     

The effects of the Chilean divorce law on women’s first birth decisions

In 2004 a new law in Chile allowed couples to divorce for the first time. The law also established compensation in case of divorce where one spouse sacrifices professional development or advancement for the good of the household. Using birth histories constructed from the Chilean Social Security Survey (Encuesta de Prevision Social–EPS) Panel 2002–2009, we investigate the effect of the divorce law on a woman’s decision of when to have a first child. We find that the divorce law increases the hazard rate of having the first child by 61 % for more educated women, controlling for socioeconomic characteristics, length of marriage and the negative trend in fertility rates observed in Chile since the mid-1960s. We also find that a given percentage increase in a woman’s potential income will increase the hazard rate by a greater percentage increase after the passage of the law.