The International Multidimensional Fertility Index: The European Case

We propose an index to measure the degree of ability or desire of the population in a given country to have children, via an analysis of certain factors that may have a positive or negative influence on the fertility rate of that country. Using data for the twenty-eight countries of the European Union, and Principal Components Analysis, we construct the International Multidimensional Fertility Index as a combination of four dimensions: (1) Economy and family, (2) Attitudes and habits, (3) Work–Life Balance, and (4) Policy, along with nineteen distinct variables. We find that Denmark, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg are among the countries with the highest value of the index, and they also have high fertility rates within the EU. At the other end of the spectrum, Latvia, Cyprus, and Greece, are ranked in the last positions according to our index, countries that also present low values in their fertility rates. We also find a positive correlation between the value of our index and country fertility rates, an indication that our index may be capturing country differences in the conditions for bearing children, with higher values of the index indicating better conditions for childbirth and childrearing. To the extent that international data becomes available, our methodology will allow for the construction of international rankings, helpful in identifying cross-country differences in the conditions for fertility.     

Quick counts from non-selected polling stations

Countless examples of misleading forecasts on behalf of both campaign and exit polls affecting, among others, British, French, and Spanish elections could be found. This has seriously damaged their image. Therefore, procedures should be used that minimize errors, especially on election night when errors are more noticeable, in order to maintain people's trust in surveys. This paper proposes a method to obtain quick and early outcome forecasts on the election night. The idea is to partly sample some (whatever) polling stations and use the consistency that polling stations show between elections to predict the final results. Model accuracy is analysed through simulation using seven different types of samples in four elections. The efficacy of the technique is also tested predicting the 2005 Eusko Legebiltzarra elections from real data. Results confirm that the procedure generates highly reliable and accurate forecasts. Furthermore, compared with the classical quick count strategy, the method is revealed as much more robust and precise.     

Highest posterior density estimation from multiply censored Pareto data

In statistical practice, it is quite common that some data are unknown or disregarded for various reasons. In the present paper, on the basis of a multiply censored sample from a Pareto population, the problem of finding the highest posterior density (HPD) estimates of the inequality and precision parameters is discussed assuming a natural joint conjugate prior. HPD estimates are obtained in closed forms for complete or right censored data. In the general multiple censoring case, it is shown the existence and uniqueness of the estimates. Explicit lower and upper bounds are also provided. Due to the posterior unimodality, HPD credibility regions are simply connected sets. For illustration, two numerical examples are included.     

Analysis of capital expenditure projects with uncertain discrete cash flows

In this paper, a methodology is presented for evaluating risky projects whose cash flows, start times and durations are not known with certainty. The methodology directly computes statistics of the present worth (i.e. means and variances) from closed-form analytical formulas which are derived with explicit consideration of the risks associated with the individual variables that affect the profitability index of the projects. It is assumed that the cash flows occur discretely over time and that a fixed discount rate exists over the project duration. The application of the technique is demonstrated through systematic steps on a number of example problems.     

Some Restricted randomization rules in sequential designs

This paper presents a new class of designs (Big Stick Designs) for sequentially assigning experimental units to treatments, when only the time covariate is considered. By prescribing the degree of imbalance which the experimenters can tolerate, complete randomization is used as long as the imbalance of the treatment allocation does not exceed the prescribed value. Once it reaches the value, a deterministic assignment is made to lower the imbalance. Such designs can be easily implemented with no programming and little personnel support. They compare favorably with the Biased Coin Designs, the Permuted Black Designs, and the Urn Designs, as far as the accidental bias and selection bias are concerned. Generalizations of these designs are considered to achieve various purposes, e.g., avoidance of deterministic assignments, early balance, etc.     

Frame evolution: A new approach to understanding changes in diversity reforms at public universities in the United States

University diversity policy in the past two decades has shifted from rationales that focused on social justice to ones that emphasize educational excellence [Lipson, D. (2007, Fall). Embracing diversity: The institutionalization of affirmative action as diversity management at UC-Berkeley, UT-Austin, and UW-Madison. Law & Social Inquiry, 32(4), 985–1026; Moreno, J. F., Smith, D. G., Parker, S., Clayton-Pedersen, A. R., & Teraguchi, D. H. (2006). Using multiple lenses: An examination of the economic and racial/ethnic diversity of college students. Report from the James Irvine Foundation Campus Diversity Initiative; Moses, M. S., & Chang, M. J. (2006). Toward a deeper understanding of the diversity rationale. Educational Researcher, 35(1), 6–11; Skrenty, J. D. (2002). The minority rights revolution. Princeton University Press]. The consensus among diversity scholars is that this shift has taken place as a result of Federal court decisions restricting the use of affirmative action in admissions. This paper sheds new light on these shifts in rationale by proposing a new theory of frame evolution. I developed this, an extension to Snow et al.’s [Snow, D. A., et al. (1986). Frame alignment processes, micromobilization, and movement participation. American Sociological Review, 51(4), 464–481] theory of frame alignment, as a way to show how policy discourses evolve to accommodate changing demands. I argue that policy frames tend to evolve in a sequential pattern of accommodation, consolidation, and bridging. In-depth interview data with 41 diversity advocates at four public universities in the United States reveal three stages in the frame evolution process: the first motivated by a need to accommodate existing institutional norms, the second motivated by a need to build a core constituency of supporters, and the third with the aim of converting those “on the fence” into policy supporters. In the case of higher education diversity policy, the three stages equate to a maintenance frame, a social justice frame, and an excellence frame.     

Teaching Note—Creating an Integrative Research Learning Environment for BSW and MSW Students

ABSTRACT

Research courses are often the least popular among BSW and MSW students because the connection between social work practice and research is not always evident. This teaching note introduces the structure of the Social Work integrative Research Lab (SWiRL), which was implemented in a social work program without a doctoral program at a large public university. SWiRL offers students opportunities to engage meaningfully in a variety of social work research projects using a framework of nested mentoring. Students gain hands-on research experience while they develop confidence, leadership, and mentoring skills within this structure. The authors discuss recommendations for other social work programs that do not have doctoral education or an established research environment.