Changes in productivity of Spanish university libraries

This paper analyzes productivity growth, technical progress, and efficiency change in a sample of 34 Spanish university libraries between 2003 and 2007. Data envelopment analysis and a Malmquist index are combined with a bootstrap method to provide statistical inference estimators of individual productivity, technical progress, pure efficiency, and scale efficiency scores. To calculate productivity, a three-stage service model has been developed, examining productivity changes in the relationships between the libraries' basic inputs, intermediate outputs, and final outputs. The results indicate a growth in the productivity of the libraries (relationship between basic inputs and intermediate outputs) and in the productivity of the service (relationship between basic inputs and final outputs). The growth in productivity in both relationships is due to technical progress. If the variable representing the use of electronic information resources is removed from the final output, the result is a significant reduction in productivity.     

Is Agency Skin Deep? Surface Attributes Influence Infants' Sensitivity to Goal‐Directed Action

Three studies investigated the role of surface attributes in infants' identification of agents, using a habituation paradigm designed to tap infants' interpretation of grasping as goal directed (Woodward, 1998). When they viewed a bare human hand grasping objects, 7‐ and 12‐month‐old infants focused on the relation between the hand and its goal. When the surface properties of the hand were obscured by a glove, however, neither 7‐ nor 12‐month‐old infants represented its actions as goal directed (Study 1). Next, infants were shown that the gloved hands were part of a person either prior to (Study 2) or during (Study 3) the habituation procedure. Infants who actively monitored the gloved person in Study 2 and older infants in Study 3 interpreted the gloved reaches as goal directed. Thus, varying the extent to which an entity is identifiable as a person impacts infants' interpretation of the entity as an agent.     

Race/Ethnicity and Stop‐and‐Frisk: Past,Present, Future

Scholarly debates surrounding stop‐and‐frisk typically assess the effectiveness and lawfulness of stop‐and‐frisk. Notwithstanding these efforts, recent reviews have excluded some recent research that addresses its impact on racial and ethnic immigrants. Understanding how the practice of stop‐and‐frisk affects racial and ethnic immigrants is worth including in reviews of these policies, considering the recent growth of research involving crime and immigrants that largely finds that immigration does not result in higher levels of crime. This review includes recent work showing that overall enforcement – stops and arrests – is higher in immigrant communities despite their lower levels of criminal involvement and recent work exploring differences among first‐generation and second‐generation immigrants in perceptions of police stops. Finally, some suggestions for the future of stop‐and‐frisk research are considered.     

Parents’ education as a determinant of educational childcare time

We analyze the relationship between parents’ education and the time devoted to childcare activities, with a focus on activities aimed at increasing the child’s human capital. We use the sample of opposite-sex couples with children under age 18, from Spain (2002) and the UK (2000), included in the Multinational Time Use Study. By estimating a seemingly unrelated regressions tobit model, we find that mothers’ education is associated with an increase in the time devoted to educational childcare by fathers in both Spain and the UK, while it is associated with an increase in the time devoted to educational childcare by mothers in Spain. We also find that fathers’ education has no effect on the time devoted to educational childcare time by either parent. It seems that what really matters in determining the time devoted to educational childcare at the couple level is the educational level of the mother.     

The International Multidimensional Fertility Index: The European Case

We propose an index to measure the degree of ability or desire of the population in a given country to have children, via an analysis of certain factors that may have a positive or negative influence on the fertility rate of that country. Using data for the twenty-eight countries of the European Union, and Principal Components Analysis, we construct the International Multidimensional Fertility Index as a combination of four dimensions: (1) Economy and family, (2) Attitudes and habits, (3) Work–Life Balance, and (4) Policy, along with nineteen distinct variables. We find that Denmark, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg are among the countries with the highest value of the index, and they also have high fertility rates within the EU. At the other end of the spectrum, Latvia, Cyprus, and Greece, are ranked in the last positions according to our index, countries that also present low values in their fertility rates. We also find a positive correlation between the value of our index and country fertility rates, an indication that our index may be capturing country differences in the conditions for bearing children, with higher values of the index indicating better conditions for childbirth and childrearing. To the extent that international data becomes available, our methodology will allow for the construction of international rankings, helpful in identifying cross-country differences in the conditions for fertility.     

Quick counts from non-selected polling stations

Countless examples of misleading forecasts on behalf of both campaign and exit polls affecting, among others, British, French, and Spanish elections could be found. This has seriously damaged their image. Therefore, procedures should be used that minimize errors, especially on election night when errors are more noticeable, in order to maintain people's trust in surveys. This paper proposes a method to obtain quick and early outcome forecasts on the election night. The idea is to partly sample some (whatever) polling stations and use the consistency that polling stations show between elections to predict the final results. Model accuracy is analysed through simulation using seven different types of samples in four elections. The efficacy of the technique is also tested predicting the 2005 Eusko Legebiltzarra elections from real data. Results confirm that the procedure generates highly reliable and accurate forecasts. Furthermore, compared with the classical quick count strategy, the method is revealed as much more robust and precise.     

Analysis of capital expenditure projects with uncertain discrete cash flows

In this paper, a methodology is presented for evaluating risky projects whose cash flows, start times and durations are not known with certainty. The methodology directly computes statistics of the present worth (i.e. means and variances) from closed-form analytical formulas which are derived with explicit consideration of the risks associated with the individual variables that affect the profitability index of the projects. It is assumed that the cash flows occur discretely over time and that a fixed discount rate exists over the project duration. The application of the technique is demonstrated through systematic steps on a number of example problems.     

Some Restricted randomization rules in sequential designs

This paper presents a new class of designs (Big Stick Designs) for sequentially assigning experimental units to treatments, when only the time covariate is considered. By prescribing the degree of imbalance which the experimenters can tolerate, complete randomization is used as long as the imbalance of the treatment allocation does not exceed the prescribed value. Once it reaches the value, a deterministic assignment is made to lower the imbalance. Such designs can be easily implemented with no programming and little personnel support. They compare favorably with the Biased Coin Designs, the Permuted Black Designs, and the Urn Designs, as far as the accidental bias and selection bias are concerned. Generalizations of these designs are considered to achieve various purposes, e.g., avoidance of deterministic assignments, early balance, etc.