Are elderly drivers a road hazard?: Problem definition and political impact

Elderly drivers are increasing in number and some statistics show they are more likely to be involved in fatal accidents than all other age groups but those under 25. States have attempted to address the problem in various ways, but very few have required mandatory retesting at license renewal for those beyond a particular age. Why have so few states chosen to act? The key is how the issue is framed for the public and decision makers. Several phases of problem definition are explored to explain the political dynamics of the older driver issue: incidence, causality, severity, crisis labeling, problem population characteristics, and linkage of values to the issue and solutions. Based upon this analysis, it is not surprising that elder interest groups have been successful in containing policy initiatives designed to restrict elderly driving.     

Union militancy among public employees: A public choice hypothesis

Public employee union membership has grown from under 6 percent to over 20 percent of all union members since 1963. This growth has been ascribed to lagging wages, inelastic demands for public products, political clout, changed laws, and reduced professionalism and public spiritedness. These explanations agree that public employees now confront their employers in a newly militant and adversarial mode. We disagree. We model this growth in membership as a continuation of old public employment relations and forecast the soon diminution of militancy.     

A Non-parametric Test for Generalized First-order Autoregressive Models

We derive a non-parametric test for testing the presence of V(X_i,ε_i) in the non-parametric first-order autoregressive model X_i+1=T(X_i)+V(X_i,ε_i)+U(X_i)ε_i+1, where the function T(x) is assumed known. The test is constructed as a functional of a basic process for which we establish a weak invariance principle, under the null hypothesis and under stationarity and mixing assumptions. Bounds for the local and non-local powers are provided under a condition which ensures that the power tends to one as the sample size tends to infinity.The testing procedure can be applied, e.g. to bilinear models, ARCH models, EXPAR models and to some other uncommon models. Our results confirm the robustness of the test constructed in Ngatchou Wandji (1995) and in Diebolt & Ngatchou Wandji (1995).     

Nonverbal expectancy violations and conversational involvement

A central feature of nonverbal expectancy violations theory is that unexpected behaviors trigger a cognitive-affective appraisal of such behavior, leading to a valencing of the behavior(s) as positive or negative. It has been proposed that communicator reward mediates the interpretation and evaluation of such violations but may be more important when the violative act is ambiguous in meaning than when it is not. Unclear is whether nonverbal behavioral composites introduce greater or less equivocality of interpretation. Two experiments employing multi-cue conversational involvement violations addressed this issue. In the first, dyads (N=51) engaged in a 10-minute baseline interview, after which participants rated each other on several measures of reward valence. One randomly selected member then served as a confederate interviewee during a second interview and either significantly increased or decreased involvement. In the second experiment, reward was manipulated as physical attractiveness, status, and task expertise. Dyads (N = 60) engaged in prolonged problem-solving discussions during which the confederates either committed an involvement violation or not. In both experiments, the involvement changes were sufficiently unexpected, arousing, and distracting to qualify as violations of expectations. Analysis of message interpretations indicated that (1) relative to normal involvement levels, increased nonverbal involvement was interpreted as most immediate/affectionate, receptive, similar, dominant, and composed, and decreased involvement as least so, and (2) reward mediated only the interpretation of formality. High involvement violations in turn produced greater attraction, credibility, and persuasiveness than low involvement violations for high as well as low-reward communicators, as predicted.where Joe Walther and Jim Baesler are doctoral students. An earlier version of this paper was presented to the annual meeting of the International Communication Association, New Orleans, May 1988.     

The Persistence of Outmoded Contraceptive Regimes: The Cases of Mexico and Brazil

Two of the most striking characteristics of contraceptive practice in the world today are the wide variation in patterns of use across countries and the tendency of the distribution of use by method to persist or narrow, even as new methods become available. The argument advanced in this article is that the disposition to commit to a reduced range of methods results from positive feedback in the process of contraceptive choice, and follows the logic of path dependence. The positive feedback derives, in large part, from social interaction among both the providers and the users of contraceptive methods. The persistence of outmoded contraceptive regimes is illustrated with the experience of Mexico and Brazil. In each case, it is argued that the conditions, events, and policies in the early stage of the adoption process have had a determinant bearing on the contraceptive practice prevailing in the late 1990s.     

Optimal Bayesian Randomization

Randomization is a puzzle for Bayesians. The intuitive need for randomization is clear, but there is a standard result that Bayesians need not randomize. In this paper we propose a model in which randomization is a strictly optimal procedure. The most important aspect of our model is that there are several parties who make different decisions and observe different data. The result also sheds light on the ethical considerations involving randomization in a clinical trial.     

A Cross‐National Investigation of the Relationship Between Infant Walking and Language Development

The acquisition of walking has recently been linked with infant language development (Walle & Campos, 2014). If this relation reflects the consequence of an epigenetic event, then it should be present regardless of when the infant typically begins to walk, the infant's culture, and the infant's native language. This study sought to replicate the previously reported link between walking and language development in American infants and investigate whether this relation exists cross‐nationally in typically developing Chinese infants exposed to Mandarin. Urban Chinese infants not only provide a distinct linguistic and cultural population in which to study this relation but also typically begin walking approximately 6 weeks later than American infants. Our results demonstrated that (1) walking infants in both the American and Chinese samples had greater receptive and productive vocabularies than same‐aged crawling infants, (2) differences between crawling and walking infants were proportionally similar in each sample, and (3) the walking‐language relation was present for both noun and non‐noun vocabularies. These findings provide further support of a relation between infant walking onset and language development, independent of age. Avenues for future research of the processes involved in this relation, as well as additional populations of interest to investigate, are discussed.     

La qualité de l'emploi en Amérique latine: théorie et faits

Traditionnellement, la littérature sur le développement consacrée aux marchés du travail d'Amérique latine s'est concentrée sur le nombre d'emplois et la productivité. Mais, étant donné la persistance d'une forte proportion d'emplois informels ou précaires, pour que l'analyse ait du sens, il faut aussi considérer des implications du statut professionnel sur la qualité de l'emploi. Partant d'observations faites ces dernières décennies, les auteurs concluent que la plupart des aspects de cette qualité – protection sociale comprise – dépendent de la signature d'un contrat écrit. Ce constat les conduit à formuler quelques suggestions pour stabiliser l'emploi formel et assurer un financement suffisant de la protection sociale.