Effects of Outcome and Probabilistic Ambiguity on Managerial Choices

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and likely influences management decisions. This study examines, given imprecise probabilities and outcomes, how managers make choices when they are provided with single-figure benchmarks. Seventy-nine MBA students completed two experiments. We found that, in a decision framed as a decision under certainty involving an ambiguous outcome, the majority of the subjects were ambiguity prone in the loss condition and switched to ambiguity aversion in the gain condition. However, in the presence of probabilistic ambiguity in a decision under risk, this expected switching pattern was shown only when the difference in riskiness between the two choice options (in the loss condition) was perceived to be relatively small. In a companion study, we used a written protocol approach to identify factors that affect decision makers' investment choices when faced with ambiguous outcomes. Protocols frequently mentioned that the ambiguous outcome option was risky, even in the case which was framed as a decision under certainty in the problem statement. In a decision under risk with ambiguous outcomes, the combination of probabilistic risk and outcome ambiguity was seen as even more risky.     

The Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism and generalized utility theories: Theoretical predictions and empirical observations

Karni and Safra [8] prove that the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism reveals a decision maker's true certainty equivalent of a lottery if and only if he satisfies the independence axiom. Segal [17] claims that this mechanism may reveal a violation of the reduction of compound lotteries axiom. This paper empirically tests these two interpretations. Our results show that the second interpretation fits better with the collected data. Moreover, we show by means of some nonexpected utility examples that these results are consistent with a wide range of functionals.     

An experimental evaluation of the descriptive validity of lottery-dependent utility theory

This article compares the performance of the expected utility (EU) and lottery-dependent expected utility (LDEU) models in predicting the actual choices of experimental subjects among risky options. In the process, we present two approaches for calibrating the LDEU model for an individual decision maker. The results indicate that while LDEU exhibits a higher potential for correctly predicting choice, the version of the model calibrated by indifference judgments does not outperform EU. We suggest a functional form for the parametric functions that defines the LDEU model, and discuss ways in which this function can be incorporated into choice-based assessment approaches to improve predictions.This research was supported in part by the Business Associates Fund at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University.     

Poverty among Working Families: New Insights from an Improved Poverty Measure

Objective . This article examines poverty among working families with children using a refined experimental poverty measure based on recommendations by the National Academy of Sciences Panel on Poverty and Family Assistance. Methods . Using data from the 1998 Current Population Survey, this research constructs an experimental poverty measure that takes into account noncash government benefits as well as job-related expenses, elements not included in the current official measure of family income. Results . We find that current statistics based on the official poverty line understate the extent of economic hardship, particularly among full-time working families with children, because expenses, such as child care costs, tend to outweigh noncash benefits, such as food stamps, that these families may receive. Furthermore, without the recent expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit, poverty among full-time working families would be even higher. Conclusions . These findings highlight challenges faced by many families, especially those with adults moving off welfare and into the labor market.     

Posture Development in Infants at Heightened versus Low Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorders

Evidence suggests that children and adults diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) exhibit difficulties with postural control. Retrospective video studies of infants later diagnosed with ASD indicate that infants who eventually receive an ASD diagnosis exhibit delays in postural development. This study investigates early posture development prospectively and longitudinally in 22 infants at heightened biological risk for ASD (HR) and 18 infants with no such risk (Low Risk; LR). Four HR infants received an autism diagnosis (AD infants) at 36 months. Infants were videotaped at home at 6, 9, 12, and 14 months during everyday activities and play. All infant postures were coded and classified as to whether or not they were infant‐initiated. Relative to LR infants, HR infants were slower to develop skill in sitting and standing postures. AD infants exhibited substantial delays in the emergence of more advanced postures and initiated fewer posture changes. Because posture advances create opportunities for infants to interact with objects and people in new and progressively more sophisticated ways, postural delays may have cascading effects on opportunities for infant exploration and learning. These effects may be greater for infants with ASD, for whom posture delays are more significant.     

Preface

Sociological Forum -     

A 14-h night-shift in the control room of a fire brigade

All 29 operators in the control room of a fire brigade performed test sessions during work and leisure time at 2-h intervals on a day with a 14-h night-shift, a day off and a day with a 10-h morning shift. The test sessions consisted of a visual search choice reaction time test and two Sternberg memory search tests (1 or 5 letters had to be memorized). Furthermore, the operators recorded their oral temperature and their subjective alertness before each test session. The subject also kept a diary of work and sleep times for 14 days. The circadian rhythm of body temperature was hardly changed by a single night-shift. Parallel to the body temperature, the subjective alertness fell significantly during the night-shift reaching a minimum value at 06:00 h. The mean reaction times increased non-significantly at the end of the night-shift and the results of the two Sternberg memory search tests showed no significant trends. The sleep of the operators after the night-shift was on average reduced to 5 hs 34 min. The results of subjective rating of alertness and reaction time test are interpreted as effects of the combined influences of circadian rhythmicity, sleep loss and time on professional task. Most results support the conclusion that a 14-h night-shift without extensive breaks is not acceptable.     

杜绝预算诡计

在繁荣时期,企业领导不会太在意预算诡计又到了做预算的时候,几名经理企图故伎重演。营销主管抛出一份“谦虚”的计划,以便自己超额完成目标,赚到奖金。事业部经理掩盖本部门的弊病,以便为计划争取资金。产品开发总监坚持说,如果不给他的设想投资,公司将注定完蛋。马拉康顾问公司(Marakon Associates)驻纽约合伙人理查德·斯     

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管理知识工作者的人必须以新的方式履行职能巴布逊学院(Babson College)信息技术与管理学总统奖教授托马斯·达文波特(Thomas Davenport)称:如今,知识工作者占据了经济发达国家25％到50％的劳动力。知识工作者为你发明新产品和新服务、设计营销计划,并制定战略。