世界史如何从分散走向统一

世界近代史是人类社会发展转型的关键时期。　它推动人类历史从分散走向统一。这期间世界史出现了许多新的特点和丰富的内容，在　研究过程中学术界形成了许多新的观点与方法。     

小型教学用局域网络的快速恢复法

要解决大量学生上机练习时会经常碰见网络系统及软件遭破坏的问题 ,可先利用NORTON软件将硬盘某分区所有资料做成扩展名为 .gho的镜像文件并置于服务器 ,再在dos下通过一张自制的网络启动盘启动终端机与服务器之间的网络 ,并通过网络找到 .gho这个文件 ,以迅速恢复网络与系统和软件包。     

LOG-PERIODOGRAM ESTIMATION OF LONG MEMORY VOLATILITY DEPENDENCIES WITH CONDITIONALLY HEAVY TAILED RETURNS

Many recent papers have used semiparametric methods, especially the log-periodogram regression, to detect and estimate long memory in the volatility of asset returns. In these papers, the volatility is proxied by measures such as squared, log-squared, and absolute returns. While the evidence for the existence of long memory is strong using any of these measures, the actual long memory parameter estimates can be sensitive to which measure is used. In Monte-Carlo simulations, I find that if the data is conditionally leptokurtic, the log-periodogram regression estimator using squared returns has a large downward bias, which is avoided by using other volatility measures. In United States stock return data, I find that squared returns give much lower estimates of the long memory parameter than the alternative volatility measures, which is consistent with the simulation results. I conclude that researchers should avoid using the squared returns in the semiparametric estimation of long memory volatility dependencies.     

Bayesian modelling of catch in a north-west Atlantic fishery

Summary. We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used and the mesh size of the nets) are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log-catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to the prediction of catches for single and aggregated ships.     

涂附磨具单位面积CaCO3含量分析方法的改进

以铜试剂代替氰化物作掩蔽剂 ,用EDTA容量法测定涂附磨具单位面积CaCO3 含量 ,获得了满意的效果。     

新形势下的插播型电视教材

探讨了新形势下插播型电视教材的制作与应用 ,为更好地适应现代教育技术发展的需要提供了帮助     

Empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the mean of a population containing many zero values

If a population contains many zero values and the sample size is not very large, the traditional normal approximation‐based confidence intervals for the population mean may have poor coverage probabilities. This problem is substantially reduced by constructing parametric likelihood ratio intervals when an appropriate mixture model can be found. In the context of survey sampling, however, there is a general preference for making minimal assumptions about the population under study. The authors have therefore investigated the coverage properties of nonparametric empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the population mean. They show that under a variety of hypothetical populations, these intervals often outperformed parametric likelihood intervals by having more balanced coverage rates and larger lower bounds. The authors illustrate their methodology using data from the Canadian Labour Force Survey for the year 2000.     

Sample sizes for estimation in clinical research

A sample size justification should be given for all clinical investigations. However, sometimes the objective of a trial is to estimate an effect with a view to planning a later definitive study. This paper describes the calculations for designing studies where one wishes to adopt an estimation approach through using confidence intervals around the overall response. Calculations are given for data anticipated to take a Normal form. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.