Creating a Consensus: Psychologists, the Supreme Court, and School Desegregation, 1952–1955

SPSSI psychologists' involvement in the early civil rights movement in the postwar United States was epitomized by their involvement in the case of Brown v. Board of Education. This article examines how social scientists sought to maintain the persona of objective, scientific expert when asked to prepare briefs for the U.S. Supreme Court for the Brown case. The social scientists believed that only by collapsing what they saw as an artificial distinction between objectivity and advocacy could the social scientist become a social activist. This article is based on extensive research in numerous archives, including the papers of Gordon W. Allport, Kenneth B. Clark, Stuart W. Cook, David Krech, the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, Theodore M. Newcomb, Robert Redfield, and the Society for the Psychological Study of Social Issues.     

Career decision-making,career exploration behaviors,and self-regulated learning

Helping individuals make a career decision is a key aim of career counseling. Determining how to encourage self-regulated learning and behaviors needed to achieve this goal often underlies career interventions. The English version of the Career Exploration Behavior survey (CEB-E) measures activities individuals engage in to learn about career options. The present study explored the psychometric properties of the CEB and its impact on various career outcomes. In the first study (N = 498), a good-fitting second-order factor model with four group-level scales and loadings was retained as the best model. In the second study (N = 143), convergent validity and incremental validity of the CEB dimensions were explored through correlation and regression analyses. The CEB predicted commitment making, metacognitions, and vocational identity. Results suggest the CEB-E is a psychometrically sound assessment of career exploration behaviors with potential utility for theory development, program evaluation, and monitoring client progress.     

Stability analysis using mixed models: A critique of tolerance interval methods and a probabilistic solution

Recently, tolerance interval approaches to the calculation of a shelf life of a drug product have been proposed in the literature. These address the belief that shelf life should be related to control of a certain proportion of batches being out of specification. We question the appropriateness of the tolerance interval approach. Our concerns relate to the computational challenges and practical interpretations of the method. We provide an alternative Bayesian approach, which directly controls the desired proportion of batches falling out of specification assuming a controlled manufacturing process. The approach has an intuitive interpretation and posterior distributions are straightforward to compute. If prior information on the fixed and random parameters is available, a Bayesian approach can provide additional benefits both to the company and the consumer. It also avoids many of the computational challenges with the tolerance interval methodology.     

Inference and Decision Making for 21st-Century Drug Development and Approval

ABSTRACT

The cost and time of pharmaceutical drug development continue to grow at rates that many say are unsustainable. These trends have enormous impact on what treatments get to patients, when they get them and how they are used. The statistical framework for supporting decisions in regulated clinical development of new medicines has followed a traditional path of frequentist methodology. Trials using hypothesis tests of “no treatment effect” are done routinely, and the p-value < 0.05 is often the determinant of what constitutes a “successful” trial. Many drugs fail in clinical development, adding to the cost of new medicines, and some evidence points blame at the deficiencies of the frequentist paradigm. An unknown number effective medicines may have been abandoned because trials were declared “unsuccessful” due to a p-value exceeding 0.05. Recently, the Bayesian paradigm has shown utility in the clinical drug development process for its probability-based inference. We argue for a Bayesian approach that employs data from other trials as a “prior” for Phase 3 trials so that synthesized evidence across trials can be utilized to compute probability statements that are valuable for understanding the magnitude of treatment effect. Such a Bayesian paradigm provides a promising framework for improving statistical inference and regulatory decision making.     

Expanding the Scope of Responsible Conduct of Research Instruction

We argue that responsible conduct research (RCR) instruction should be extended beyond students and trainees funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) or National Science Foundation (NSF) to include all students, trainees, faculty, and research staff involved in research. Extending the scope of RCR instruction can help institutions develop and maintain an environment that promotes ethical research conduct. Universities and scientific organizations have objected to expanding the scope of RCR instruction on the grounds that it would be a major undertaking that would require the expenditure of additional institutional resources. We argue, however, that expanding the scope of RCR instruction can be done efficiently without placing undue burdens on institutions.     

An Evaluation of Persons per Household (PPH) Estimates Generated by the American Community Survey: A Demographic Perspective

The American Community Survey (ACS) is a U.S. Census Bureau product designed to provide accurate and timely demographic and economic indicators on an annual basis for both large and small geographic areas within the United States. Operational plans call for ACS to serve not only as a substitute for the decennial census long-form, but as a means of providing annual data at the national, state, county, and subcounty levels. In addition to being highly ambitious, this approach represents a major change in how data are collected and interpreted. Two of the major questions facing the ACS are its functionality and usability. This paper explores the latter of these two questions by examining “persons per household (PPH),” a variable of high interest to demographers and others preparing regular post-censal population estimates. The data used in this exploration are taken from 18 of the counties that formed the set of 1999 ACS test sites. The examination proceeds by first comparing 1-year ACS PPH estimates to Census 2010 PPH values along with extrapolated estimates generated using a geometric model based on PPH change between the 1990 and 2000 census counts. Both sets of estimates are then compared to annual 2001–2009 PPH interpolated estimates generated by a geometric model based on PPH from the 2000 census to the 2010 census. The ACS PPH estimates represent what could be called the “statistical perspective” because variations in the estimates of specific variables over time and space are viewed largely by statisticians with an eye toward sample error. The model-based PPH estimates represent a “demographic perspective” because PPH estimates are largely viewed by demographers as varying systematically and changing relatively slowly over time, an orientation stemming from theory and empirical evidence that PPH estimates respond to demographic and related determinants. The comparisons suggest that the ACS PPH estimates exhibit too much “noisy” variation for a given area over time to be usable by demographers and others preparing post-censal population estimates. These findings should be confirmed through further analysis and suggestions are provided for the directions this research could take. We conclude by noting that the statistical and demographic perspectives are not incompatible and that one of the aims of our paper is to encourage the U.S. Census Bureau to consider ways to improve the usability of the 1-year ACS PPH estimates.     

Friends of the Circuits: Interest Group Influence on Decision Making in the U.S. Courts of Appeals*

Objective. Though there is an extensive literature focused on the participation and efficacy of interest group amici curiae in the U.S. Supreme Court, there is little rigorous analysis of amici curiae in the U.S. Courts of Appeals. Here, we systematically analyze the influence of amicus curiae briefs on U.S. Court of Appeals decision making to provide insights regarding both judicial decision making and the efficacy of interest groups. Methods. We use a probit model to capture influences on appellant success in the courts of appeals from 1997–2002. Results. We find that amicus briefs filed in support of the appellant enhance the likelihood of that litigant's probability of success, but that amicus briefs filed in support of the appellee have no effect on litigation outcomes. Conclusion. Amici can help level the playing field between appellants and appellees by serving to counter the propensity to affirm in the U.S. Courts of Appeals.     

Three's a crowd? The Nader vote in the 2000 presidential, election in U.S. metropolitan areas

The 2000 U.S. presidential election resulted in one of the closest and most controversial outcomes in U.S. history. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader had little chance of winning, but nevertheless impacted the race in several close states and arguably swung the race from Al Gore to George W. Bush. This research examines Ralph Nader's “urban strategy” to win 5% of the vote for president and the bases of his electoral support. This study uses the METRO_2000 data set which contains a variety of publicly available variables for 276 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the year 2000. The analysis uses OLS regression to examine the determinants of the percentage of the vote for Nader in each MSA. The results indicate that the Nader vote was positively influenced by key electoral variables such as the level of electoral participation, whether Nader was on the ballot or could be written in, and the closeness of the race in state polls leading up to the election. The Nader vote was also higher in MSAs with high percentages of voters who supported Nader programs including environmentalists, those favoring universal health care and gay rights, union members, and MSAs that were college towns or with high percentages of college-educated voters. Ralph Nader's urban strategy effectively mobilized enough of his electoral base to impact the 2000 election, but electoral constraints and the closeness of the race prevented him from achieving his goal of attaining 5% of the vote. This case holds lessons about the limits and possibilities of third party campaigns in U.S. presidential elections.