Social investment effects of public education,health care,and welfare service expenditures on economic growth

The purpose of this study is to theoretically and empirically examine whether public spending in education, health care, and welfare service operates as a fruitful investment in welfare states, which has been implied in the literature of social investment arguments. Based on comprehensive review of existing literature, this study suggested a tripartite mechanism of social investment effect of such spending, that is “enhancement of human capital,” “support for labor force participation,” and “job creation.” To find the empirical evidence, a pooled time‐series cross‐section analysis was conducted with the data of 15 advanced welfare states from 1980 to 2015 using estimation technique of fixed‐effect model. The results confirmed that public spending in education, health care, and welfare service had a positive medium‐term as well as long‐term effect on economic performance, while cash‐type welfare spending had an obscure or no visible effect on economy. Government consumption that is a proxy and control variable of size of the welfare state showed a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term but a negative effect in the long run. In conclusion, this study suggests that reinforcing social services should be recognized and dealt with as essence of social investment strategy.     

Slashed generalized exponential distribution

In this paper, we introduce an extension of the generalized exponential (GE) distribution, making it more robust against possible influential observations. The new model is defined as the quotient between a GE random variable and a beta-distributed random variable with one unknown parameter. The resulting distribution is a distribution with greater kurtosis than the GE distribution. Probability properties of the distribution such as moments and asymmetry and kurtosis are studied. Likewise, statistical properties are investigated using the method of moments and the maximum likelihood approach. Two real data analyses are reported illustrating better performance of the new model over the GE model.     

机械原理教学方法和手段的改革与实践

为满足科技与经济社会发展不断变化的要求,培养高素质的工程技术人才,提高机械原理的教学质量,提出了在教学方法和教学手段上改革的具体实施方法,旨在注重师生互动,加强工程实践,重视实验教学,优化教学过程,最大限度地调动学生学习的积极性、互动性、参与性和创造性.     

Accommodating diverse clients' needs in evaluation capacity building: A case study of the Tobacco Control Evaluation Center

In this case study, we detail and analyze how the Tobacco Control Evaluation Center (TCEC), an evaluation technical assistance center that serves approximately 100 local tobacco control organizations in California, endeavors to build capacity among the state-funded local providers it serves by using evaluation capacity building activities with an utilization-focused evaluation framework. We call this a "blended approach" and describe these methods. Satisfaction and demand for TCEC services are documented to provide measurements for evaluation capacity building. Final evaluation report scores from two intervention cycles (2004-2007 and 2007-2010) submitted to the California Health Department, Tobacco Control Division are also assessed and compared. These measures demonstrate an increase in evaluation capacity by local projects under TCEC's purview.     

What clients of couple therapy model developers and their former students say about change, part II: model-independent common factors and an integrative framework

Proponents of the common factors movement in marriage and family therapy (MFT) suggest that, rather than specific models of therapy, elements common across models of therapy and common to the process of therapy itself are responsible for therapeutic change. This article-the second of two companion articles-reports on a study designed to further investigate common factors in couple therapy. We used grounded theory techniques to analyze data from interviews with MFT model developers Dr. Susan M. Johnson, Dr. Frank M. Dattilio, Dr. Richard C. Schwartz, former students of Dr. Johnson and Dr. Schwartz, and each of their clients who had been successful in couple therapy. This article reports model-independent variables, that is, general aspects of therapy that are not directly related to the therapist's model. Model-independent categories include client variables, therapist variables, the therapeutic alliance, therapeutic process, and expectancy and motivational factors, each with several subcategories. We also present a conceptual framework that outlines how model-dependent and model-independent common factors may interact to produce change. We discuss our findings and proposed framework in relation to the current common factors literature in psychology and MFT. We also discuss clinical, training, and research implications.     

加快郑州市县域经济发展的思考

县域经济是国民经济的重要组成部分。在中部崛起的现实机遇中,如何更好的发展县域经济是我们需要思考的问题。文章阐述了发展县城经济的现实意义,剖析了郑州市的现状和特征,提出了郑州市县域经济的发展目标、思路和对策。     

An overview of the Salmonella enteritidis risk assessment for shell eggs and egg products.

This article summarizes a quantitative microbial risk assessment designed to characterize the public health impact of consumption of shell eggs and egg products contaminated with Salmonella Enteritidis (SE). This risk assessment's objectives were to: (1) establish the baseline risk of foodborne illness from SE, (2) identify and evaluate potential risk mitigation strategies, and (3) identify data gaps related to future research efforts. The risk assessment model has five modules. The Egg Production module estimates the number of eggs produced that are SE-contaminated. Shell Egg Processing, Egg Products Processing, and Preparation & Consumption modules estimate the increase or decrease in the numbers of SE organisms in eggs or egg products as they pass through storage, transportation, processing, and preparation. A Public Health Outcomes module then calculates the incidence of illnesses and four clinical outcomes, as well as the cases of reactive arthritis associated with SE infection following consumption. The baseline model estimates an average production of 2.3 million SE-contaminated shell eggs/year of the estimated 69 billion produced annually and predicts an average of 661,633, human illnesses per year from consumption of these eggs. The model estimates approximately 94% of these cases recover without medical care, 5% visit a physician, an additional 0.5% are hospitalized, and 0.05% result in death. The contribution of SE from commercially pasteurized egg products was estimated to be negligible. Five mitigation scenarios were selected for comparison of their individual and combined effects on the number of human illnesses. Results suggest that mitigation in only one segment of the farm-to-table continuum will be less effective than several applied in different segments. Key data gaps and areas for future research include the epidemiology of SE on farms, the bacteriology of SE in eggs, human behavior in food handling and preparation, and human responses to SE exposure.     

The Savvy Caregiver Program: Impact of an Evidence-Based Intervention on the Well-Being of Ethnically Diverse Caregivers

This article reports on the impact of the Savvy Caregiver Program (SCP) on English-speaking caregivers of Hispanic, Black/African American, and Asian/Pacific Islander descent. Caregivers completed a questionnaire prior to study enrollment, at 6 and 12 months postenrollment. Caregivers in all 3 ethnic groups showed more caregiver competence, reduced depression, greater tolerance for care recipients’ memory problems, better management of their overall situation, and improved perception of that situation 6 months and 12 months post-enrollment. The study demonstrates that in the sample studied the SCP was as effective in helping ethnically diverse caregivers as it has shown to be with Caucasian caregivers.     

Neighborhood Structure,Social Organization,and Number of Short‐Term Sexual Partnerships

We examine the relationship between neighborhood structural characteristics, social organization, and the sexual partnering practices of adults. Analyses of 1990 census and 1995–1997 survey‐based data on Chicago neighborhoods and adult sexual activity reveal for men a number of neighborhood influences on sexual partnering practices. First, residential stability is negatively associated with having a short‐term sexual partner in the last year. Second, neighborhood social ties are positively associated with short‐term sexual partnering in neighborhoods with low levels of collective efficacy—the combination of cohesion and shared expectations for beneficial action among neighbors—but this effect is substantially reduced as collective efficacy increases. Moreover, neighborhood collective efficacy and social ties mediate the effect of residential stability on sexual partnering practices. Neighborhood characteristics were not associated with short‐term sexual partnering for women.     

中国生猪生产布局影响因素实证研究——基于省级面板数据

合理的生猪生产布局对中国生猪产业可持续发展具有十分重要的意义,影响生猪生产区域变动的因素不能仅停留在感性认识上。基于Nerlove模型及经济学相关理论,结合各省级单位的面板数据建立动态自回归模型,对中国生猪生产布局变动的规律、特点、趋势及其效果作出系统的测度和分析。研究表明：中国生猪生产区域布局经历了五次比较大的变动,而粮食产量、原有饲养规模、消费市场的潜力、交通运输的通达性、气候条件、畜牧业与种植业的比较优势等都是影响生猪生产区域格局的因素;从影响程度看,原有饲养规模和消费市场购买力水平影响最为突出,地区粮食产量对生猪生产布局影响不显著。此结论对优化中国生猪生产布局具有指导意义。