STOCHASTIC COST-VOLUME-PROFIT ANALYSIS WITH A LINEAR DEMAND FUNCTION

In this paper we incorporate a linear demand function to model the price-volume causal relationship into stochastic cost-volume-profit (CVP) analysis. We assume that the objective function is to maximize expected profit; other objective functions are also discussed and compared. A linear stochastic model follows from which probabilistic statements can be easily obtained if the random variables are assumed to be multivariate normal. The basic framework is shown to be a special case of project value maximization where project value is the cash flow of the project discounted for time and risk according to the capital asset pricing model. Moreover, an intertemporal extension that considers inventory is developed. In summary, a new approach to stochastic CVP analysis that incorporates the management decision process in an uncertain environment is developed.     

积极老龄化理念下的老年教育课程建设策略

发展老年教育是实施积极老龄化战略的重要举措,课程建设是教育目标得以实现的基本保证.结合当前老年教育课程建设的不足,本文提出,老年教育课程建设应以健康、参与和保障三大支柱作为服务目标,着力从课程目标取向、课程内容建构、课程实施形式以及课程师资组成等方面回应和落实积极老龄化理念的要求.     

A COMPARISON OF SEQUENCING RULES FOR A TWO-STATE HYBRID FLOW SHOP

A common manufacturing environment in many industries (such as the glass, steel, paper, costume jewelry, and textile industries) is a hybrid flow shop. This system has continuous-process machinery in the fist state of manufacturing and repetitive-batch equipment in the second. Little research has investigated this type system. Scheduling managers of hybrid flow shops tend either to use existing job-shop rules or to devise their own rules. These approaches often are less than adequate for efficient scheduling. In this paper we extend the rule presented by Narasimhan and Panwalker [4] to include a general class of hybrid flow shops. This extenstion, called the generalized cumulative minimum-deviation (GCMD) rule, is compared under various operation conditions to three other sequencing rules: shortest processing time, longest processing time, and minimum deviation. The operating conditions are determined by the number of machines at both stages. The results of 7200 simulation runs demonstrate that the GCMD rule is better than the other rules in minimizing each of five chosen criteria. Thus, the GCMD rule can help managers to schedule hybrid flow shops efficiently to achieve various corporate objectives.     

Notes and Communications “A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL”: A COMMENT*

Janssen and Daniel analyzed the choice between a one- or a two-point conversion for a particular game situation in college football. Their decision criteria was maximum expected utility based on a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function defined over the games outcomes. An alternative approach based on a stochastic dominance criterion is presented that does not rely on knowledge of the relative importance of tying vs. winning; rather, it relies on a notion of consistency in the sequential problem.     

A NOTE ON HOLDING COSTS AND LOT-SIZE ERRORS

This note examines the sensitivity of the basic economic-order-quantity inventory model to lot-size errors when holding costs are assumed to be a strictly increasing (though not necessarily linear) function of average inventory. In particular, we show that the penalty associated with ordering either too much or too little is a function not only of the size of the error but of the shape of the holding-cost curve as well. We demonstrate that, under certain conditions, even relatively small lot-size errors can be extremely costly.     

A DISCRETE DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR MADE-TO-ORDER COST ANALYSIS

A model is presented that yields optimal production rates for a firm producing a contracted order. The model is unique in that it considers the influence of production rate and learning on total program cost. An application to the specific characteristics of two military production programs is presented. As demonstrated by the application, models of this type may be used as decision-making tools when negotiating the cost impact of contract modifications.     

加强党的执政能力建设努力化解新时期人民内部矛盾

加强党的执政能力建设和正确处理新时期人民内部矛盾这两大重要课题之间有着相辅相成、相互促进的关系。因此,通过提高党驾驭市场经济的能力、发展社会主义民主政治的能力,建设社会主义先进文化和构建社会主义和谐社会的能力等具体途径,才能去化解新时期的人民内部矛盾。     

旁观者心态与张爱玲小说的叙事策略

中国文学史对张爱玲一直有某些误解,其中之一就是张爱玲的“冷眼旁观”。她这种貌似清高的创作姿态,给很多读者留下了冷漠薄情的印象。事实上,张爱玲是个“外冷内热”的人,这也正是她的旁观者心态的本质。了解她的旁观者心态的表现与动因对于她的叙事策略研究有很大帮助,也有利于我们进一步了解她的创作在人性、历史、哲学等方面达到的深度。