Comparative research in social work: methodological considerations using the ‘diachronic–synchronic’ distinction in linguistics

Although there has been a significant increase in the number of comparative studies in social work, there has, to date, been a deficit in terms of methodological discussion and development in this domain. In this article, a linked pair of methodological concepts (‘diachronic’–‘synchronic’), drawn from linguistics, and often used in comparative research studies in the humanities and social sciences, has been applied to the field of comparative research in social work. The use of this distinction in comparative research of social work contributes to the progress of social work as a research-based scientific discipline. The distinction also offers the potential for the development of research methodology in the field of comparative social work research.     

Keeping up with the Joneses and the welfare effects of monetary policy

This paper examines the implications of “keeping up with the Joneses” preferences (jealousy) for the welfare effects of monetary policy. I develop a New Keynesian model, where households are jealous and the central bank follows the Taylor rule. I show that the welfare effects of monetary policy over time depend significantly on the relative strength of the consumption externality caused by jealousy and the monopolistic distortion. When a first-order approximation of the utility function is used, then the main result is the following: If jealousy (the monopolistic distortion) dominates, then a decrease in the interest rate reduces (increases) welfare in the short run, but increases (reduces) welfare in the medium run. However, the use of a second-order approximation changes the sign of the overall welfare effect of monetary policy if the initial level of employment is at the optimal level or just below it.     

How to compare interpretatively different models for the conditional variance function

This study considers regression-type models with heteroscedastic Gaussian errors. The conditional variance is assumed to depend on the explanatory variables via a parametric or non-parametric variance function. The variance function has usually been selected on the basis of the log-likelihoods of fitted models. However, log-likelihood is a difficult quantity to interpret – the practical importance of differences in log-likelihoods has been difficult to assess. This study overcomes these difficulties by transforming the difference in log-likelihood to easily interpretative difference in the error of predicted deviation. In addition, methods for testing the statistical significance of the observed difference in test data log-likelihood are proposed.     

Social and health‐care priorities of local politicians in Finland: do the attitudes of politicians reflect the actual processes in municipalities?

The aim of this study was to find out whether elected politicians' attitudes influence policy-making processes in terms of social and health-care resource allocation. A preliminary hypothesis was developed on the basis of previous empirical findings on the attitudes of politicians. If health-care costs decreased during the period 1993–1999, then secondary care costs should have increased and vice versa; if the total amount of resources increased, then secondary care must have been allocated fewer resources. However, the results of this study showed that the actual resource-allocation processes did not reflect the attitudes of local politicians. Expenditure on secondary health care increased during this period, while primary health-care services were allocated fewer resources. Analysing the actual decision-making processes rather than investigating attitudes to priority setting may prove more useful in gaining a better understanding of priority-setting processes and the mechanisms used in different contexts.     

Correlates of Sexual Abuse in a Sample of Adolescent Girls Admitted to Psychiatric Inpatient Care

We examined correlations of child sexual abuse among 300 adolescent girls in psychiatric inpatient treatment. Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.)-based psychiatric diagnoses were obtained from the Schedule for Affective Disorder and Schizophrenia for School-Age Children—Present and Lifetime and from data on family and behavioral characteristics from the European Addiction Severity Index (EuropASI). A total of 79 girls (26.3%) had experienced child sexual abuse during their lifetime. Child sexual abuse was associated with an adolescent’s home environment, sibling status, smoking, posttraumatic stress disorder diagnosis, self-mutilating behavior, and suicidal behavior. At least 62% of the perpetrators were acquaintances of the victims. Correlates of child sexual abuse can be used to identify child sexual abuse victims and persons at heightened risk for child sexual abuse.     

Systematic handling of missing data in complex study designs – experiences from the Health 2000 and 2011 Surveys

We present a systematic approach to the practical and comprehensive handling of missing data motivated by our experiences of analyzing longitudinal survey data. We consider the Health 2000 and 2011 Surveys (BRIF8901) where increased non-response and non-participation from 2000 to 2011 was a major issue. The model assumptions involved in the complex sampling design, repeated measurements design, non-participation mechanisms and associations are presented graphically using methodology previously defined as a causal model with design, i.e. a functional causal model extended with the study design. This tool forces the statistician to make the study design and the missing-data mechanism explicit. Using the systematic approach, the sampling probabilities and the participation probabilities can be considered separately. This is beneficial when the performance of missing-data methods are to be compared. Using data from Health 2000 and 2011 Surveys and from national registries, it was found that multiple imputation removed almost all differences between full sample and estimated prevalences. The inverse probability weighting removed more than half and the doubly robust method 60% of the differences. These findings are encouraging since decreasing participation rates are a major problem in population surveys worldwide.     

On future household structure

Summary.  We develop a method for computing probabilistic household forecasts which quantifies uncertainty in the future number of households of various types in a country. A probabilistic household forecast helps policy makers, planners and other forecast users in the fields of housing, energy, social security etc. in taking appropriate decisions, because some household variables are more uncertain than others. Deterministic forecasts traditionally do not quantify uncertainty. We apply the method to data from Norway. We find that predictions of future numbers of married couples, cohabiting couples and one-person households are more certain than those of lone parents and other private households. Our method builds on an existing method for computing probabilistic population forecasts, combining such a forecast with a random breakdown of the population according to household position (single, cohabiting, living with a spouse, living alone etc.). In this application, uncertainty in the total numbers of households of different types derives primarily from random shares, rather than uncertain future population size. A similar method could be applied to obtain probabilistic forecasts for other divisions of the population, such as household size, health or disability status, region of residence and labour market status.     

Estimation of Exposure Time Distributions

In many demographic analyses, such as the assessment of environmental cancer risks, one may be interested not only in the age-by-state distribution of the population but also in the distribution of the population by time spent in a given state. States can represent geographic areas, marital statuses, labor force participation, or states of epidemiologic exposure. Recursive formulas for the calculation of the distribution of the population according to exposure time are derived under time-invariant state transition rates. Although populations can have identical growth rates and identical age-by-state distributions, they can have very different distributions by exposure time. An application to the analysis of carcinogenic exposure states is given, using data from Finland. The effect of population heterogeneity on the estimated exposure time distributions is studied.     

Study on a resource allocation formula for social services in Finland

This article considers how a specific need-based resource allocation formula for children's day care, income support, child welfare and other social services was developed. The formula is needed for the municipal allocation of state subsidies for social services, and the work was performed for the Ministry of Social Welfare and Health. Cross-sectional data were collected from the 436 Finnish municipalities and 37 small areas within the six largest cities. Because of the simultaneous relationship between supply and demand of services, two-stage least-square estimation and structural equations models were used in the analysis. After the effect of supply was removed from the service utilisation data, group-need factors (municipal variables) were found for these services. The new formula is financially and administratively feasible, transparent and reasonably simple.