Scenarios, Uncertainty and Conditional Forecasts of the World Population

Current official population forecasts differ little from those that Whelpton made 50 years ago either in the cohort–component methodology used or in the arguments used to motivate the assumptions. However, Whelpton produced some of the most erroneous forecasts of this century. This suggests that current forecasters should ensure that they give users an assessment of the uncertainty of their forecasts. We show how simple statistical methods can be combined with expert judgment to arrive at an overall predictive distribution for the future population. We apply the methods to a world population forecast that was made in 1994. Accepting that point forecast, we find that the probability is only about 2% that the world population in the year 2030 will be less than the low scenario of 8317 million. The probability that the world population will exceed the high scenario of 10 736 million is about 13%. Similarly, the probability is only about 51% that the high–low interval of a recent United Nations (UN) forecast will contain the true population in the year 2025. Even if we consider the UN high–low intervals as conditional on the possible future policies of its member states, they appear to have a relatively small probability of encompassing the future population.     

Job-strain and well-being among Finnish social workers: exploring the differences in occupational well-being between child protection social workers and social workers without duties in child protection

Work-related mental distress and its impact on employees’ working life is a mounting issue among Finnish social workers. This article focuses on identifying the factors associated with child welfare social workers’ occupational well-being. The occupational well-being of Finnish child welfare social workers (N?=?364) and social workers whose duties do not include child protection work (N?=?524) was explored and compared with each other using t-test statistics and logistic regression analysis. The data, collected in 2014/2015, were obtained from an ongoing longitudinal cohort study on work-related well-being among Finnish public sector employees. A multi-dimensional and holistic approach to occupational well-being was used as the outline for the analysis and comparison of the two groups. Child protection social workers reported higher levels of burnout and secondary traumatic stress than social workers without child protection duties. Despite these burdens, both groups showed a similar level of general health, compassion satisfaction and overall occupational well-being. Individual and organizational factors associated with high occupational well-being were identified. Supervision was found to be an important supporting element. This study identified multiple determinants related to social workers’ occupational well-being, comprising positive and negative elements with regard to organizational and individual factors.     

The Use of Chemical Restraints for Older Long-Term Hospital Patients: A Case Report from Finland

The purpose of this study was to describe the use and concomitant use of psychotropics and other drugs as chemical restraints in the aged in long-term hospital care. The study consisted of 154 patients (42 men, 112 women) hospitalized in five long-term care wards in Pori City Hospital, Finland. Three or more psychotropics were regularly given to 33% of the patients and regularly or irregularly to 53% of the patients. Two or more benzodiazepine derivatives or related drugs were regularly given to 24% of the patients and regularly or irregularly to 46% of the patients. The very poor cognitive and functional abilities of the patients, the common concomitant use of psychotropic drugs, the use of psychotropics to control the behavior of the patients, and the lack of documentation of the effects and side effects of the drugs give rise to the conclusion that psychotropics were used as chemical restraints in these long-term care wards.     

The Effects of Education on the Duration of Unemployment

ABSTRACT This paper studies the relationship between the level of education and the probability of re-employment. Using a search theoretical model, it is shown that on the lowest levels additional education increases the probability of re-employment, but on the highest levels the relationship turns negative. Finnish microeconomic data on unemployed workers show that unemployed people who have 13–14 years of education have the highest re-employment probability.