Cross‐Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat

This article uses a game‐theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross‐milieu terrorist collaboration—the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists’ collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision‐making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right‐wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right‐ or left‐wing extremists. The game‐theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed.     

从启蒙者到依附者——“17年诗歌”诗人角色的易换

回望17年诗坛,我们在大多数诗歌千篇一律的声音里发现,那个自"五四"以来就置身于"启蒙"潮头的身影,在三十年后竟然成为政策的传声筒、政治的依附者。社会状况、读者对象、诗歌审美标准、诗人心态的改变,及其病态的"先锋情结",是这代诗人们最终选择"依附者"角色的至关重要的因素。     

低压及欠平衡钻井中注气量对井内压力的影响

以多相瞬变流理论为基础,建立了井筒内气液两相流动模型,并对低压欠平衡钻井中注气量对井内压力的影响关系和规律进行计算和分析。计算分析结果表明,注气量对井内压力的影响除与注气量本身大小有关外,还与井深、井眼与钻柱结构尺寸、井内液相流量和性质等因素密切相关。单纯增大注气量并不一定就必然会导致井内压力的降低,这取决于所给条件下构成井筒内气液两相流体的静液压力和流阻间的平衡关系。介绍的模型及方法对确定低压欠平衡钻井过程中各相关参数、地面压缩机组的配置、以及设计方案等有一定指导意义。     

基于网络文化视域的大学生政治社会化问题探究

随着科学技术的迅速发展,与网络密切相关的网络文化越来越受到人们的关注。网络文化是人类文明的划时代成果,它所包含的丰富的经济、政治、科技、教育、艺术等诸多信息对当代大学生政治社会化过程也会产生重要的影响。网络文化不仅对大学生政治社会化起着积极的促进作用,同时也对大学生政治社会化造成一定的负面影响。基于对网络文化的认识,必须坚持"依法治网"与"以德治网"相结合的原则,从而保证大学生顺利实现政治社会化。     

潘之恒《亘史》侠客形象研究

侠客是中国封建社会中的一部分特殊人群,是具有传奇色彩的英雄人物。明代徽州由于商品经济的发展,侠客文学体裁作品出现了创作高潮.这其中,安徽小说家潘之恒创作的笔记体小说《亘史》中塑造了大量性格鲜明、颇具特色的侠客形象。而那些女性侠客,更是以非凡的身手,细腻的情感,在传记文学史上为女性书写了浓墨重彩的一笔。     

Partial linear single-index models with additive distortion measurement errors

We study partial linear single-index models (PLSiMs) when the response and the covariates in the parametric part are measured with additive distortion measurement errors. These distortions are modeled by unknown functions of a commonly observable confounding variable. We use the semiparametric profile least-squares method to estimate the parameters in the PLSiMs based on the residuals obtained from the distorted variables and confounding variable. We also employ the smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty (SCAD) to select the relevant variables in the PLSiMs. We show that the resulting SCAD estimators are consistent and possess the oracle property. For the non parametric link function, we construct the simultaneous confidence bands and obtain the asymptotic distribution of the maximum absolute deviation between the estimated link function and the true link function. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods and a real dataset is analyzed for illustration.     

Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian variable selection in logistic mixed models

In this article, to reduce computational load in performing Bayesian variable selection, we used a variant of reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and the Holmes and Held (HH) algorithm, to sample model index variables in logistic mixed models involving a large number of explanatory variables. Furthermore, we proposed a simple proposal distribution for model index variables, and used a simulation study and real example to compare the performance of the HH algorithm with our proposed and existing proposal distributions. The results show that the HH algorithm with our proposed proposal distribution is a computationally efficient and reliable selection method.     

考虑异质性行为的灾后应急物资动态调度优化

在以人道主义为本的应急救援活动中，不可忽视被救灾民和施救决策者们异质性行为的影响。一方面，将各灾民因救援物资需求未被及时满足而呈现的差异化心理痛苦度量成经济损失，并纳入应急救援调度的社会成本这一决策目标中；另一方面，在灾后物资调度决策中，关注具有异质性偏好的各应急决策者所展现出的不同救援态度。结合面向联合机会约束规划的动态供需平衡限制，最终构建一个考虑灾民和决策者们异质性行为的多阶段灾后救援物资分配和应急路径优化模型。采用2008年汶川地震为案例背景，应用遗传算法对模型求解和参数分析，将仿真结果与不考虑异质性行为的传统救援调度方案进行比较，得出一些结论为构建高效的应急救援体系提供有益参考。     

What makes hybrid insourcing successful: A new public–private partnership model for social welfare services

Outsourcing has been a key policy tool for delivering a range of social services, and regarded as more effective than insourcing or direct government provision. At the same time, it has also caused many delivery issues such as principal‐agent problems, a lack of policy coordination, and poor‐quality welfare services. While the pendulum continues to swing between insourcing and outsourcing, we aim to propose a new public–private partnership model called the “hybrid insourcing model” and examine which factors influence the performance of the model. In South Korea, around 2010, the local government in Namyangju City was the first to implement the “Hope Care Center model,” a kind of hybrid insourcing model, which has been praised for its innovation and widely emulated by central and local governments. Our analysis utilizes data collected between December 2017 and January 2018 from public sector employees and civilian staff in Namyangju and a comparable city, A. From this, we draw a number of implications, both for theory and for policy. We argue that, for public–private partnerships, active cooperation and equality are the biggest factors in contributing to positive performance. These work alongside leaders with a clear vision and with employees' positive attitude.     

论“主体建构”的认识论来源及理论意义

本文着力解决的是主体建构在社会科学诸多范式与取向中的合法性问题。主体建构是一种视角、一个解释工具,也是一种方法论取向,同时也可以被理解为一种认识论倾向。主体建构以现象学关于主体意向性与意义建构的论断为认识论基础,以理解社会学为理论源泉,试图理解关于同一社会现象在不同主体的视角下的不同的意义。主体建构的目的是对这些不同的意义进行差异性理解、过程性理解与情境性理解,并以此解构垄断意义与固化意义,寻求社会现象的多元意义。