Principles for Conduct of Pest Risk Analyses: Report of an Expert Workshop

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) have focused attention on risk assessment of potential insect, weed, and animal pests and diseases of livestock. These risks have traditionally been addressed through quarantine protocols ranging from limits on the geographical areas from which a product may originate, postharvest disinfestation procedures like fumigation, and inspections at points of export and import, to outright bans. To ensure that plant and animal protection measures are not used as nontariff trade barriers, GATT and NAFTA require pest risk analysis (PRA) to support quarantine decisions. The increased emphasis on PRA has spurred multiple efforts at the national and international level to design frameworks for the conduct of these analyses. As approaches to pest risk analysis proliferate, and the importance of the analyses grows, concerns have arisen about the scientific and technical conduct of pest risk analysis. In January of 1997, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) held an invitation-only workshop in Washington, D.C. to bring experts in risk analysis and pest characterization together to develop general principles for pest risk analysis. Workshop participants examined current frameworks for PRA, discussed strengths and weaknesses of the approaches, and formulated principles, based on years of experience with risk analysis in other setting and knowledge of the issues specific to analysis of pests. The principles developed highlight the both the similarities of pest risk analysis to other forms of risk analysis, and its unique attributes.     

Caregiving mothers of children with impairments: coping and support in Russia

Parents providing long‐term care for their children with impairments face myriad physical and emotional challenges. Researchers have examined coping strategies among parent caregivers in various contexts internationally. However, little research has focused on caregiving mothers of children with impairments in developing countries, and even less on mothers in Russia. The purpose of this qualitative study is to investigate the ways in which caregiving mothers cope and their perceptions of services and supports they need and utilize in a small Russian city. Semi‐structured interviews were conducted with caregiving mothers (n = 20) concerning postnatal and current treatment, information and services, finances, social support, and future plans. Analysis revealed that planning for the future and navigating limited resources, overcoming structural barriers and cultural obstacles, and maintaining social support were the three most important facets of mothers’ abilities to cope with the demands of caregiving.     

One Decade of Self Exclusion: Missouri Casino Self-Excluders Four to Ten Years after Enrollment

For more than a decade, casinos around the world have offered self-exclusion programs (SEPs) to gamblers seeking help with their gambling behavior. Despite the proliferation of SEPs, little is known about the long-term outcomes for gamblers who utilize these programs. The current study assessed the experiences of a sample (N = 113) of Missouri self-excluders (SEs) for as long as 10 years after their initial enrollment in the Missouri Voluntary Exclusion Program (MVEP). Most SEs had positive experiences with MVEP and reduced their gambling and gambling problems after enrollment. However, 50% of SEs who attempted to trespass at Missouri casinos after enrollment were able to, indicating that the benefit of MVEP was attributable more to the act of enrollment than enforcement. SEs who engaged in complementary treatment or self-help groups had more positive outcomes than those who did not, suggesting that SEPs ought to encourage and provide information about additional support and treatment options to participants.     

Interstate Migration Has Fallen Less Than You Think: Consequences of Hot Deck Imputation in the Current Population Survey

We show that much of the recent reported decrease in interstate migration is a statistical artifact. Before 2006, the Census Bureau's imputation procedure for dealing with missing data in the Current Population Survey inflated the estimated interstate migration rate. An undocumented change in the procedure corrected the problem starting in 2006, thus reducing the estimated migration rate. The change in imputation procedures explains 90% of the reported decrease in interstate migration between 2005 and 2006, and 42% of the decrease between 2000 (the recent high-water mark) and 2010. After we remove the effect of the change in procedures, we find that the annual interstate migration rate follows a smooth downward trend from 1996 to 2010. Contrary to popular belief, the 2007-2009 recession is not associated with any additional decrease in interstate migration relative to trend.     

Boundary Ambiguity and Borderline Personality Traits: Implications for Treatment for Adolescent Girls in Foster Care

This article explores the relationship between boundary ambiguity and borderline personality traits in adolescent girls in foster care. Boundary ambiguity is a family systems concept: family members are uncertain about who is in or out of the family—in either psychological or physical presence or absence. In foster care, it can be assumed that an adolescent girl has experienced trauma significant enough to be removed from her family. The connection between early childhood trauma and attachment disruption in addition to the connection between insecure/disorganized attachment and borderline personality disorder leads to the conclusion that these same adolescents are at high risk for developing borderline personality traits. The sample consists of 40 caseworkers from New England’s child protection departments and therapists from residential programs working with adolescent girls. They completed the Shedler-Westen Assessment Procedure for Adolescents to determine the presence of personality disruption as well as a variation of Pauline Boss’s Boundary Ambiguity Scale #1, and demographic questionnaires. The results find a significant correlation between boundary ambiguity and borderline personality traits. These findings provide directions for future research in clinical treatment and child welfare policy making.     

Genealogies and Gene-ideologies: The Legitimacy of the Beta Israel (Falasha)

The migration of the vast majority of Beta Israel (Falasha) to Israel has been accompanied by major shifts in the discourse regarding their ‘Jewishness’ and ‘Ethiopian-ness’. This article discusses the adoption of traditions of Danite descent in place of traditions of Solomonic descent and the emergence of genetics as the most important identity marker, replacing reckonings of lineage. The first shift is connected to the migration of the Beta Israel from Ethiopia to Israel; the second to changing concepts of what represents ‘proof’ of identity in the modern and post-modern world.     

Social Protest and Self-Enhancement: A Conditional Relationship

Data from a panel study are used to test the theoretically informed hypothesis that participation in social protest activities in the seventh grade has self-enhancing outcomes in the ninth grade and in young adulthood where the subjects in the seventh grade express alienation from the conventional social order. However, participation in social protest activities in the seventh grade is expected to have self-devaluing consequences in the ninth grade and young adulthood where the subjects in the seventh grade do not express alienation from the conventional social order. The results of OLS multiple regression analyses with interaction terms were consistent with the hypothesis. As predicted, among subjects who rejected the idea that one can get ahead by working hard, seventh grade social protest was inversely related to self-derogation; and, among subjects who affirm the idea that one can get ahead by working hard, social protest activities were related to higher subsequent levels of self-derogation.     

Adolescent Self-Rejection and Adult Social Action: A Conditional Relationship

Objective . Theoretically informed models of the relationship between stigmatized personal identities and participation in collective social action are tested. Methods . Data from a longitudinal study of participants ( N = 4,169) followed between adolescence and the fourth decade of life are used to estimate structural equation models. Results . The data support hypotheses that perceived rejection during adolescence anticipates participation in social action under conditions when respondents reported during adolescence (1) that many of the kids at school participated in social movements ( p < .10) and (2) that they perceived themselves as having personal control over adverse outcomes ( p < .05), but not under mutually exclusive conditions. In all models, gender, mother's education, and minority status were specified as control variables. Conclusions . Early experiences of rejection and failure dispose people to engage in collective social action if they perceive social support for such action and anticipate that action will be effective.     

Fitting Hierarchical Holographic Modeling into the Theory of Scenario Structuring and a Resulting Refinement to the Quantitative Definition of Risk

A point of view is suggested from which the Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) method can be seen as one more method within the Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS), which is that part of Quantitative Risk Assessment having to do with the task of identifying the set of risk scenarios. Seen in this way, HHM brings strongly to our attention the fact that different methods within TSS can result in different sets of risk scenarios for the same underlying problem. Although this is not a problem practically, it is a bit awkward conceptually from the standpoint of the "set of triplets" definition of risk, in which the scenario set is part of the definition. Accordingly, the present article suggests a refinement to the set of triplets definition, which removes the specific set of scenarios, found by any of the TSS methods, from the definition of risk and casts it, instead, as an approximation to the "true" set of scenarios that is native to the problem at hand and not affected by the TSS method used.