Mean-variance portfolios using Bayesian vector-autoregressive forcasts

Protfolio optimization is very sensitive to the forecats of returns and (co-)variances of the underlying assets. This paper applies a Bayesian vector-autoregression of the asset universe to predict the returns. Further, the co-variance matrix is forecasted by an Augmented GARCH estimation of the most volatile principle components of the return series. As an empirical illustration, the daily stock returns of the German stocks index DAX have been used to calculate some well-known mean-variance portfolios. Back-testing is used to evaluate the performance. The approach seems to be promising.     

Does intergenerational mobility shape psychological distress? Sorokin revisited

Drawing from Sorokin's hypothesis that socially mobile individuals are at greater risk of experiencing psychological distress than their non-mobile counterparts, we investigate whether intergenerational occupational mobility influences psychological distress, as measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale. Using data for men from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) and Sobel's Diagonal Mobility Models, we find little evidence for Sorokin's hypothesis; mobile individuals are no more likely to be psychologically distressed than their non-mobile counterparts. In fact, one group of mobile men - those who left their farming origins - are actually less distressed than the sons who remain as farmers and non-mobile men in higher-ranked social classes. We speculate that this reflects the fact that farming became very arduous during the late 20th century and these mobile sons of farmers appreciate their improved life chances. Our findings suggest that the association between mobility and psychological distress varies across specific class backgrounds and is contingent upon the broader social and economic context.     

On the historical determinants of third sector strength: A qualitative comparative analysis

This study proposes a theoretical explanation for the main causes of the third sector's strength. A Boolean comparative analysis based mainly on the theoretical frameworks of Rokkan and Esping-Andersen indicates that the combination of state-supported urban interests and Protestantism are necessary conditions. This result is very close to Max Weber's explanation of civil society which presupposes the facilitating role of the autonomous state. Thus, the empirical results are reinterpreted within the context of a Weberian explanatory framework. The implications of this endeavor within the historical context of developing countries are further explicated.     

作为文化感应变化的间断熵——埃克森·瓦尔迪兹石油泄漏事故研究

间断熵在文化领域被定义为一种永久的衰退,是人类文化系统对环境适应灵活性的永久萎缩,它预测并解释了灾后人类系统不能重建的原因。1989年发生于埃克森·瓦尔迪兹的石油泄漏事故是一次技术性灾难,对威廉王子湾地区的商业性捕鱼和建立在生存资料基础上的社区生活模式造成了严重的影响,并在其随后的灾后重建中表现出明显的间断熵过程。究其原因在于：（1）自然资源基础受到严重损坏,影响了原有的生计方式;（2）外来援助的方向性错误或有所保留,致使当地居民的精神创伤加剧;（3）灾后地区政治生态妨碍人类与环境互动传统模式的恢复。威廉王子湾地区作为自然资源社区,代表了一种文化上适合可持续发展的能力,那么他们应该被竭力保护,而不是被排斥或消除。对此,人类学家应该致力于研究如何对抗间断熵,为预防、应对和缓解灾难创造出文化上适宜的新方法。     

魔兽与母亲——灾难的象征论

1991年10月发生在奥克兰地区的大火灾造成25人丧生,6000多人无家可归。幸存者用各种方式表达自己对这场灾难的认识,其中凸显了有关自然与文化、有序与无序、时间与空间以及传统的男女性别区分与生死等二元结构,尤其是对作为自然象征的母亲与作为灾难象征的魔兽二者之间的对立显示了自然与非自然力量的对比。人们为了解释灾难的去而复来,甚至认定灾难的发生是早已注定的、循环的,从而肯定了上帝对于自然灾害发生的控制权,由此,毁灭者也是创造者。奥克兰大火中隐含着如建筑材料的不当使用和居民区的不合理规划等技术性因素,因此其可部分归结为技术性灾难。而由于技术性灾难产生于一个文化的竞技场,而不是自然自身的,在这种情况下,能满足人们心理需求的合乎情理的灾难意象或隐喻非常少,因此,技术性灾难不会流变为神话,而是作为永远的历史而存在。综观上述过程,灾难被重新界定为＂创造性的毁灭＂,从而被赋予了一种令人敬畏的美。尽管并非所有的文化都会以上述方式去象征地表达灾难,但所有的文化在描述与解释灾难时,象征都将会是他们行动的一部分。这些象征的建立缓解或消解了灾民对于灾难的恐惧,这也可以部分解释为什么灾难多发区的居民大多不愿意搬迁。     

Using the Internet for scientific publishing: <Emphasis Type="Italic">FQS</Emphasis> as an example

Since the “Public Library of Science” launched its first open-access journals and the “Berlin Declaration on Open Access to Knowledge in the Sciences and Humanities” has been released in 2003 and found enormous attention, the claim for open access—to make publicly funded journal articles available for the public—started to reach German scientists too. But still no experience has been made with electronic publishing in general and more specifically with open-access publishing. One consequence is that the potential capacity of open access—the (inter) national and (trans) disciplinary visibility and accessibility of scientific output—is not sufficiently used by German researchers. Ways to successfully establish an open-access journal are presented in this article by referring to “Forum Qualitative Sozialforschung/Forum:Qualitative Social Research” (FQS) as an example: after introducing the current state of FQS traditional and innovative ways of publishing are being discussed which had been employed while developing FQS and which helped FQS to become the most important electronic journal in the field of qualitative research.