Mean-variance portfolios using Bayesian vector-autoregressive forcasts

Protfolio optimization is very sensitive to the forecats of returns and (co-)variances of the underlying assets. This paper applies a Bayesian vector-autoregression of the asset universe to predict the returns. Further, the co-variance matrix is forecasted by an Augmented GARCH estimation of the most volatile principle components of the return series. As an empirical illustration, the daily stock returns of the German stocks index DAX have been used to calculate some well-known mean-variance portfolios. Back-testing is used to evaluate the performance. The approach seems to be promising.     

Using the Internet for scientific publishing: <Emphasis Type="Italic">FQS</Emphasis> as an example

Since the “Public Library of Science” launched its first open-access journals and the “Berlin Declaration on Open Access to Knowledge in the Sciences and Humanities” has been released in 2003 and found enormous attention, the claim for open access—to make publicly funded journal articles available for the public—started to reach German scientists too. But still no experience has been made with electronic publishing in general and more specifically with open-access publishing. One consequence is that the potential capacity of open access—the (inter) national and (trans) disciplinary visibility and accessibility of scientific output—is not sufficiently used by German researchers. Ways to successfully establish an open-access journal are presented in this article by referring to “Forum Qualitative Sozialforschung/Forum:Qualitative Social Research” (FQS) as an example: after introducing the current state of FQS traditional and innovative ways of publishing are being discussed which had been employed while developing FQS and which helped FQS to become the most important electronic journal in the field of qualitative research.     

Lesbian and Gay Parents: Their Experiences of Children's Health Care in Australia

This study investigates the experiences of lesbian and gay parents seeking health care for their children within the Australian medical system. Previously unavailable demographic data was collected on lesbian and gay families, and qualitative information was sought from parents about positive or problematic health care experiences related to sexual orientation and family constellation. Ninety-two lesbian or gay parents responded to a national postal and Web-based survey. Eighty-nine percent of respondents reported a high level of satisfaction with the health care received by their children. Despite overall satisfaction, however, 49 percent of parents identified fear of disclosure of sexual orientation, and 27 percent reported negative or problematic experiences with their children's health care related to sexual orientation or family constellation. This study indicates that fear of discrimination and homophobic attitudes towards lesbian and gay families remain a factor within the Australian health care system.     

The identification of distribution form II

The concept of distribution form developed in Brenner and Fraser (1980) is modified and extended to cover the more general context involving a class of distribution for form. This extension underlies the choice of a particular structural model for the three-parameter Weibull in Evans, Fraser and Massam (1982). The extended definition of distribution form is based on the requirement of objectivity in modelling (Fraser 1979). Three characterizations of this objectivity each require that the class of response presentations have closure under composition and thus be expressible in terms of a group. In particular, this implies that empirical support would not observationally be available for that generalization of a structural model called astructured model (Fraser 1972; the term functional model has been used inappropriately by Bunke, 1975 and Dawid and Stone, 1982).     

A global risk assessment model for civil wars

In this study, we construct a multivariate model that assesses the risk of an outbreak of civil war in a country over a period of 5 years into the future. In addition to structural factors of state weakness, which have dominated the literature on civil war onset, this model includes repression of basic human rights to personal integrity – an important harbinger of wars to come – as an aspect of state behavior. Our aim is not to explore the causal factors of civil war onset, but to build a model that includes indicators that correlate with civil war outbreak and may be used to predict it. Based on two versions of the model – logit and neural network – out-of-sample risk assessments for three different time periods are generated and compared to the historical record of civil war outbreak during those years. In addition, the model’s ability to produce in-sample risk assessments over a 5-year period is tested. Finally, we compute truly predictive civil war risk assessments for all countries for which data are available, for the years 2008–2012. The analyses show that with a relatively simple model and based on publicly available data sources, meaningful civil war risk assessments can be computed. The quality of the predictions exceeds that of prominent studies, in which the risk of interstate war is assessed.     

Social representations of the euro in Austria

In summer 1997, a survey on attitudes and social representations of the single European currency was conducted in Austria on a sample of 534 respondents. Participants were asked to fill out a questionnaire on economic expectations and psychological aspects relating to the change of the national currencies to the single European currency. In addition to the standard questionnaire distributed in all 15 EU member states (Müller-Peters et al., 1998. Explaining attitudes towards the cure. Design of a cross-national study. Journal of Economic Psychology 19, 663–680), subjects in Austria were asked to indicate what they freely associated with the term “European single currency” and to evaluate their own associations. On the basis of individuals' attitudes towards the euro, the total sample was divided into five sub-samples of (a) strong opponents of the euro, (b) moderate opponents, (c) neutral or indifferent respondents, (d) moderate supporters, and (e) strong supporters. Social representations of these sub-samples were then analysed. Firstly, frequencies of associations within the five groups were investigated by correspondence analysis. It was found that opponents associated mainly negative feelings with the euro, thinking of currency instability and financial losses in conjunction with it. Moreover, strong euro opponents feared a loss of national autonomy and the unjust distribution of EU-related benefits and costs. Supporters, on the other hand, most frequently mentioned the facilitation of tourism and trading opportunities. Comparability of prices and incomes across Europe and the stimulation of the national economy were other frequently mentioned positive consequences. Secondly, sequences of associations were analysed. Four groups showed a tendency to more extreme emotions, that is, positive or negative, at the beginning of the association process with a shift towards neutral associations after their initial associations. The belief in a stronger European identity and a threat to Austrian identity, respectively, proved to be a relevant cause for subjective support of or opposition to the euro. Moderate opposition seems to be related to anticipated financial restrictions, both at the individual and the national level.