Intended Message Versus Message Received in Hypothetical Physician Risk Communications: Exploring the Gap

We examined the risk perception that is derived from hypothetical physician risk communications. Subjects (n= 217) completed a questionnaire on the Web for $3. Subjects were presented with four hypothetical cancer risk scenarios that included a physician risk communication in one of three risk communication formats: verbal only, verbal plus numeric probability as a percent, and verbal plus numeric probability as a fraction. In each scenario, subjects were asked to imagine themselves as the patient described and to state their perceived personal susceptibility to the cancer (i.e., risk perception) on a 0 to 100 scale, as well as responses to other measures. Subjects' risk perceptions were highly variable, spanning nearly the entire probability scale for each scenario, and the degree of variation was only slightly less in the risk communication formats in which a numeric statement of risk was provided. Subjects were more likely to overestimate than underestimate their risk relative to the stated risk in the numeric versions, and overestimation was associated with the belief that the physician minimized the risk so they wouldn't worry, innumeracy, and worry, as well as decisions about testing for the cancer. These results demonstrate significant gaps between the intended message and the message received in physician risk communications. Implications for medical decisions, patient distress, and future research are discussed.     

Canadians in Crisis: the Nature and Source of Support for Leadership in a National Emergency*

Cet article analyse un cas ou la position théorique de Parsons concernant «l'in-flation de confiance» dans les autorités politiques est opérant dans un groupe à l'occasion d'une crise nationale. Un analyse de contenu de 1047 lettres à lèditeur démontre que leurs auteurs arriverent aux mêmes conclusions mais à partir de significations subjecteurs les plus diverses et une grande variété de prises de positions idéalogiques. Dès lors, le consensus dans les systèmes de valeur devenait aleatoire: on chercha à le susciter par le biais de deux stratégies de leadership. D'une part on cherche à revaloriser l'attachement aux valeurs les plus fondamentales; d'autre part on veut créer la crainte par un dénigrement de l'ennemi. Une analyse plus poussée évonce les conséquences possibles pour le système de la répugnance chez les membres a mener une analyse critique des politiques de leurs dirigeants. This paper explores a case where Parsons' inflation of trust in political authorities was operating among system members during a national crisis. A content analysis of 1047 letters to the editor shows that writers reached the same conclusion but through widely different subjective meanings and ideological positions. Hence, value consensus was seen as problematic, and its source was sought in an exploration of two leadership strategies: inculcation of attachment to core values, and mobilization of fear through vilification of the enemy. Further analysis suggests the consequences for the system of a reluctance among members to scrutinize the policies of political leaders.     

CUSUM Hypothesis Tests and Alternative Response Probabilities for Finite Poisson Trials

This article develops a new cumulative sum statistic to identify aberrant behavior in a sequentially administered multiple-choice standardized examination. The examination responses can be described as finite Poisson trials, and the statistic can be used for other applications which fit this framework. The standardized examination setting uses a maximum likelihood estimate of examinee ability and an item response theory model. Aberrant and non aberrant probabilities are computed by an odds ratio analogous to risk adjusted CUSUM schemes. The significance level of a hypothesis test, where the null hypothesis is non-aberrant examinee behavior, is computed with Markov chains. A smoothing process is used to spread probabilities across the Markov states. The practicality of the approach to detect aberrant examinee behavior is demonstrated with results from both simulated and empirical data.     

The best subset of parameters in min-max linear regression

These Fortran-77 subroutines provide building blocks for Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) (Craven and Wahba, 1979) calculations in data analysis and data smoothing including ridge regression (Golub, Heath, and Wahba, 1979), thin plate smoothing splines (Wahba and Wendelberger, 1980), deconvolution (Wahba, 1982d), smoothing of generalized linear models (O'sullivan, Yandell and Raynor 1986, Green 1984 and Green and Yandell 1985), and ill-posed problems (Nychka et al., 1984, O'sullivan and Wahba, 1985). We present some of the types of problems for which GCV is a useful method of choosing a smoothing or regularization parameter and we describe the structure of the subroutines.Ridge Regression: A familiar example of a smoothing parameter is the ridge parameter X in the ridge regression problem which we write.     

Development and validation of the Protective Gambling Beliefs Scale (PGBS)

This article aimed to develop and validate a measure of protective beliefs – distinct from the absence of erroneous beliefs – that may be associated with resistance to gambling problems. Study 1 was designed to determine the reliability and content validity of a preliminary set of protective belief items. Participants (N = 1479, 813 males) also completed the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI). Most items were associated with reduced risk of problems; however, items relating to an awareness of gambling harm, and preparedness to lose money were positively correlated with gambling problems and were therefore not demonstrably protective. Study 2 sought to reduce scale size and assess the scale’s ability to predict risk of gambling problems. Participants (N = 1168, 625 males) completed belief items, the PGSI, and measures of gambling consumption and cognitive distortions. Results showed that endorsement of protective beliefs was negatively correlated with PGSI, gambling consumption and cognitive distortions, and predicted PGSI above that of cognitive distortions. Findings suggest that the Protective Gambling Beliefs Scale (PGBS) offers a unique tool for understanding resistance to the development of gambling problems. Future research should focus on exploring whether protective beliefs can diminish the likelihood of the onset of problem gambling.     

A Comparison of Arbitration Procedures for Risk‐Averse Disputants*

We propose an arbitration model framework that generalizes many previous quantitative models of final offer arbitration, conventional arbitration, and some proposed alternatives to them. Our model allows the two disputants to be risk averse and assumes that the issue(s) in dispute can be summarized by a single quantifiable value. We compare the performance of the different arbitration procedures by analyzing the gap between the disputants' equilibrium offers and the width of the contract zone that these offers imply. Our results suggest that final offer arbitration should give results superior to those of conventional arbitration.     

Integrating Individual Differences in Career Assessment: The Atlas Model of Individual Differences and the Strong Ring

Career assessment methods often include measures of individual differences constructs, such as interests, personality, abilities, and values. Although many researchers have recently called for the development of integrated models, career counseling professionals have long faced the challenge of integrating this information into their practice. The authors examine the use of integrated models to enhance the career counseling process, including Armstrong, Day, McVay, and Rounds's (2008) RIASEC‐based Atlas Model of Individual Differences (using Holland's 1997, typology of 6 interest types: Realistic, Investigative, Artistic, Social, Enterprising, and Conventional [RIASEC]) and Armstrong, Smith, Donnay, and Rounds's (2004) basic interests‐based Strong Ring. These models provide a structured framework for presenting clients with assessment feedback that emphasizes connections between interests, personality, and abilities.