Joint Beliefs in Conflictual Coordination Games

The traditional solution concept for noncooperative game theory is the Nash equilibrium, which contains an implicit assumption that players probability distributions satisfy t probabilistic independence. However, in games with more than two players, relaxing this assumption results in a more general equilibrium concept based on joint beliefs (Vanderschraaf, 1995). This article explores the implications of this joint-beliefs equilibrium concept for two kinds of conflictual coordination games: crisis bargaining and public goods provision. We find that, using updating consistent with Bayes rule, players beliefs converge to equilibria in joint beliefs which do not satisfy probabilistic independence. In addition, joint beliefs greatly expand the set of mixed equilibria. On the face of it, allowing for joint beliefs might be expected to increase the prospects for coordination. However, we show that if players use joint beliefs, which may be more likely as the number of players increases, then the prospects for coordination in these games declines vis-à-vis independent beliefs.     

Calculation of age-specific fertility schedules from tabulations of parity in two censuses

The mathematics of stable populations recently has been generalized to cover populations with time-varying fertility and mortality by a modification incorporating the sum of age-varying growth rates in place of the fixed growth rate of a stable population. Equations that characterize nonstable populations apply to any cohort-like phenomenon with a measurable property that cumulates gains or losses through time. In particular, the equations fit the relation between a population's average parity at a given age and age-specific fertility rates previously experienced at lower ages. Techniques devised to derive an intercensal life table from single-year age distributions in two censuses are adapted to estimate accurate intercensal fertility schedules from distributions of parity by age of woman in two censuses. Birth-order specific fertility schedules are also estimated.     

Transition Shock and the Relocation of People from Mental Handicap Hospitals and Hostels

The process of deinstitutionalisation has been gathering momentum in Britain and the United States since the mid-1970s. A discussion of these trends provides the background to an examination of “transition shock” as it affects people relocated from mental handicap institutions. The paper explores the theoretical underpinnings of the concept of transition shock and links them to the findings of a follow-up study of the behavioural consequences of relocation.     

Place-based urban ecology: A century of park planning in Seattle

This research responds to calls from within the field of urban ecology to explicitly incorporate humanities-based research in order to achieve robust interdisciplinarity. Our research provides an example of a place-based urban ecological analysis. We use this framework to analyze over a century of park planning and development within the city of Seattle. We identify four eras of park planning that are linked by a comprehensive 100-year park plan. This case study examines how the political, cultural, and economic aspects of park planning have produced and been influenced by long-term trends and historical contingencies. This research also offers practical insights for effective contemporary urban planning, emphasizing the need for flexible and adaptive long-term plans when confronted with unpredictable events, emerging political arrangements, changing cultural priorities, and shifting fiscal climates.     

ANOMALIES, PROBINGS, INSIGHTS: KEN FOREMAN'S ROLE IN THE SAMPLING INFERENCE CONTROVERSY OF THE LATE 20TH CENTURY

This paper is based on the author's recollections of work done for and with E.K. Foreman, and later developments of that work. It describes most particularly the author's early intimations of the potential for using prediction models in survey sampling, the reasons why the use of such models, especially for inferential purposes, was so strongly resisted in the second half of the 20th century, the manner in which randomization and prediction inferences can be combined, and some advantages flowing from that combination.     

Free agency,owner incentives,and the national football league players association

In an effort to raise salaries in professional football, the National Football League Players Association (NFLPA) has demanded that NFL owners set aside 55 percent of gross revenues to fund a union wage scale. An alternative means of raising salaries, as evidenced by the relatively higher earnings in major league baseball and professional basketball, is through a free agent system wherein players are free to sell themselves in the open market. This paper examines the NFLPA’s claim that free agency will not work in the NFL because owners lack the financial incentive to win that would induce them to bid on free agents.     

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