Effects of a single outlier on arma identification

Fox (1972), Box and Tiao (1975), and Abraham and Box (1979) have proposed methods for detecting outliers in time series whose ARMA form is known (or identified). We show that the existence of a single aberrant observation, innovation, or intervention causes an ARMA model to be misidentified using unadjusted autocorrelation (acf) and partial autocorrelation estimates. The magnitude, location, type of outlier, and in some cases the ARMA's parameters, affect the identification outcome. We use variance inflation, signal-to-noise ratios, and acf critical values to determine an ARMA model's susceptibility to misidentifi-cation. Numerical and simulation examples suggest how to iteratively use the outlier detection methods in practice.     

The Nature,Social Organization and Promotion of Management Research: Towards Policy

This paper argues for the distinctiveness of management research and develops a perspective concerning management research policy. It argues that the key defining characteristic of management research is its applied nature, and that its central concern should be ‘the general (engineering) problem of design’. Because a key goal of management research is to improve the relationship between theory and practice, a fundamental concern lies with its diverse nature and the consequential difficulty of integration of sub-disciplines, as well as with the issue of the relevance and the application of findings. As a policy paper, it aims to introduce a limited number of analytical frameworks in order to develop a policy position, thus helping frame the debate concerning the role of management research. Specifically, it achieves this, first by exploring the ontology of management research, examining its form, features, peculiarities and idiosyncrasies using Becher's conceptual schema for exploring the nature of disciplines; second by identifying a requisite form of social organization to support management research activity using the Gibbons et al. taxonomy of knowledge production systems; and finally, by identifying some conclusions, research policy implications, and suggesting a set of policy propositions concerning the conduct of management research.     

Attachment and emotion regulation: Compensatory interactions and leader–member exchange

The current study draws on attachment theory (Bowlby, 1982) to examine how attachment (a relationship-based trait disposition), and the interaction between attachment and emotion regulation, relate to LMX quality. Data were collected from subordinates and supervisors in a variety of work settings. Attachment anxiety and attachment avoidance negatively predicted LMX quality. Moderator effects were found between attachment and emotion regulation.     

评估合作机会的3条法则

常有人向我咨询合伙事宜。同事或朋友邀请他们参与某个合作项目，他们认为那是“千载难逢的好机会”。而这些机会不是需要投入大量的钱和时间，就是涉及与当前职业完全不同的新领域，有时甚至是两种情况兼具。     

Bridging the divide: elders and the assessment process

Summary At the heart of needs-based assessment is an uneasy tensionbetween agency-centred and user-centred objectives. Using casematerial from an ethnographic study of the process of assessmentfor older people, this paper looks at what happens when practitionerstry to understand the needs of individual elders through a processdominated by agency agendas. By marginalizing the older person'sinsights, the risk of unwelcome or inappropriate interventionmay increase. A user-centred approach, by contrast, requiresinformation gathering and provision that is meaningful to theolder person and sensitive to their efforts to analyse and managetheir situation. These efforts are often revealed in narrativeform as the person tells their story which, in an agency-centredassessment, is easily overlooked or even ignored.     

Detecting year-of-birth mortality patterns with limited data

Summary.  Late life mortality patterns are of crucial interest to actuaries assessing risk of longevity, most obviously for annuities and defined benefit pension schemes. The stability of public finances is also affected, as the governments have very substantial risk of longevity in the form of state benefits and public sector pension schemes. One important explanatory variable for late life mortality patterns is year of birth. Previous work has demonstrated various techniques for detecting such patterns, but always with long time series of mortality rates. The paper describes two alternative ways to detect such patterns, even with missing population data or the absence of a time series. The paper finds support for the idea that different birth cohorts have different rates of aging.     

Model Selection and Regression t-Statistics

It is shown that dropping quantitative variables from a linear regression, based on t-statistics, is mathematically equivalent to dropping variables based on commonly used information criteria.     

Contextualizing Business Ethics: Anomie and Social Life

The objective of this paper is to explore howthe current interest in Business Ethics can be locatedwithin an analysis of contemporary society which takesinto account the prevalence of moral uncertainty along with the concomitant desire to(re)establish some form of normative order. As such,Business Ethics may be seen as a socially constructedfield of study which reflects broaderchanges and controversies within society. Yet as a body of knowledge,Business Ethics articulates epistemological doubts. Twodistinctive themes in Business Ethics discourse areconsidered — the modernist/rationalist and thepostmodernist/relativist. It is argued that in different ways, each canbe seen as both an expression of, and a reaction to, theincreasing incidence of anomie in society. Theimplications for organizational practices are thenconsidered through the example of Corporate Codes ofEthics and the problem of establishing consensus wherethe grounds for any claim to moral authority areproblematic.