A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTIVE ABILITY OF ADAPTIVE FORECASTING,RE-ESTIMATION,AND RE-IDENTIFICATION USING BOX-JENKINS TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS ON QUARTERLY EARNINGS DATA

This paper assesses the predictive ability of the Box-Jenkins methodology when utilized in an on-going setting. Three procedures are utilized to update the original forecasts generated from the Box-Jenkins models: adaptive forecasting, re-estimation, and re-identification. The results indicate that constant monitoring of the structure and parameters of the time-series models are necessary through time. It appears that adaptive forecasting techniques are insufficient to update BJ time-series models when used in conjunction with quarterly earnings data. Re-estimation is recommended as each new observation becomes available. Re-identification procedures are recommended on a less frequent basis.     

An Experimental Test of the Effects of Fictional Framing on Attitudes*

Objectives. Most studies of media effects in political communication focus on news media. A smaller body of work extends theories of news media effects to fictional entertainment media. Just as news media engage in priming and agenda setting, these studies suggest that fictional media do as well. In this study, we deal with fictional media's framing of issues. No research has sought to test the effects of framing in explicitly fictional media on political opinions. We develop the outlines of a theory we call “fictional framing” and test it in an experiment. Methods. Participants in our treatment group watched the film Cider House Rules. The movie frames the issue of abortion in the case of incest in a pro‐choice way, and frames morality in terms of following one's own conscience. Results. The film influenced opinions in ways consistent with the framing of these issues. Conclusions. Since abortion opinions and moral values tend to be entrenched, we consider this a strong first test of the effects of fictional framing.     

GNR, MGR, and exact misspeclfication testing

The Gauss-Newton regression (GNR) is widely used to compute Lagrange multiplier statistics. A regression described by Milliken and Graybill yields an exact F test in a certain class of nonlinear models which are linear under the null. This paper shows that the Milliken-Graybill regression is a GNR. Hence one interpretation of Milliken-Graybill is that they identified a class of nonlinear models for which the GNR yields an exact test.     

Statistical Computing Software Reviews

This section is similar in organization to a Book Review section in other journals; however, software of interest to statisticians is the subject of review here. Emphasis is on software for microcomputers. Programs that operate only in larger mainframe computers will seldom receive review. Normally, producers of programs make a copy of their product available to the Section Editor, who then selects one or more persons to test the product and prepare a review.

Producers of computer software who wish to have their product reviewed are invited to contact the Section Editor, Professor Kenneth Berk, Department of Mathematics, 313 Stevenson Hall, Illinois State University, Normal, IL 61761.

Findings and opinions expressed in every review are solely those of the author. They should not be construed as reflecting endorsement of the product, or opinions held, by the American Statistical Association, nor is any warranty implied about any product reviewed.

STAN, Version II.0. David M. Allen. Available from Statistical Consultants, Inc., 462 E. High Street, Lexington, KY 40508. $300. Reviewed by Peter A. Lachenbruch     

Some further aspects of the löwner-ordering antitonicity of the moore-penrose inverse

A survey is given of known proofs of the antitonicity of the inverse matrix function for positive definite matrices w.r.t. the Lowner partial ordering, and of the corresponding result for the Moore-Penrose inverse of nonnegative definite matrices [the theorem of Milliken and Akdeniz (1977)]. A short new proof of the latter result is obtained by employing an extremal representation of a nonnegative definite quadratic form. Another proof of this result involving Schur complements is also given, and is seen to be extendable to the case of symmetric (not necessarily nonnegative definite) matrices. A geometrical interpretation of Milliken and Akdeniz's theorem is presented. As an application, the relationship between the concepts of greater (maximum) concentration and smaller (minimum) dispersion is considered for a pair (class) of vector-valued statistics with possibly degenerate distributions.     

Unobserved-Components Models for Seasonal Adjustment Filters

Time series models are presented, for which the seasonal-component estimates delivered by linear least squares signal extraction closely approximate those of the standard option of the widely-used Census X-11 program. Earlier work is extended by consideration of a broader class of models and by examination of asymmetric filters, in addition to the symmetric filter implicit in the adjustment of historical data. Various criteria that guide the specification of unobserved- components models are discussed, and a new preferred model is presented. Some nonstandard options in X-11 are considered in the Appendix.