PERCEIVED ENVIRONMENTAL UNCERTAINTY AS A MEDIATOR OF EXPECTANCY THEORY PREDICTIONS: SOME PRELIMINARY FINDINGS

Expectancy theory has been tested in a variety of research settings with somewhat mixed results. One possible explanation for the sometimes low predictive ability of the model is the presence of environmental uncertainty. It was hypothesized that the greater the perceived environmental uncertainty, the greater the uncertainty regarding expectancy estimates. Hence, the predicted relationship between the level of motivation and job performance was expected to vary with the level of perceived uncertainty. Empirical results are presented supporting the hypothesis.     

A New Multiperiod Multiple Traveling Salesman Problem with Heuristic and Application to a Scheduling Problem

A new multiperiod variation of the M-traveling salesman problem is introduced. The problem arises in efficient scheduling of optimal interviews among tour brokers and vendors at conventions of the tourism and travel industry. In classical traveling salesman problem vocabulary, a salesman is a tour broker at the convention and a city is a vendor's booth. In this problem, more than one salesman may be required to visit a city, but at most one salesman per time period can visit each city. The heuristic solution method presented is polynomial and is guaranteed to produce a nonconflicting set of salesmen's tours. The results of an implementation of the method for a recent convention are also reported.     

MANAGEMENT OF COLLEGE STUDENT RECRUITING ACTIVITIES USING GOAL PROGRAMMING*

A shrinking pool of potential students, due to a declining birthrate as well as uncertain economic times, is creating the need for more effective recruiting of college students. One approach using a goal programming model has been developed and is currently being used to manage recruitment activities in a small four-year college in Nebraska. The model identifies both the type and number of activities that must be completed each quarter in order to reach an enrollment goal for a given year. Factors such as budget, time, manpower, and marketing strategies are highlighted in the model. The results of the goal programming model encouraged more field activities in the first two quarters with emphasis on new-candidate identification. The third-quarter recruiting strategy is more balanced while the fourth-quarter emphasis is placed on follow-up activities that occur chiefly in the office. Use of this model will enable recruiters to meet enrollments while managing recruiting resources and activities in order to remain within the recruiting budget.     

Intersectoral Labor Mobility and the Growth of the Service Sector

One of the most striking changes in the U.S. economy over the past 50 years has been the growth in the service sector. Between 1950 and 2000, service‐sector employment grew from 57 to 75 percent of total employment. However, over this time, the real hourly wage in the service sector grew only slightly faster than in the goods sector. In this paper, we assess whether or not the essential constancy of the relative wage implies that individuals face small costs of switching sectors, and we quantify the relative importance of labor supply and demand factors in the growth of the service sector. We specify and estimate a two‐sector labor market equilibrium model that allows us to address these empirical issues in a unified framework. Our estimates imply that there are large mobility costs: output in both sectors would have been double their current levels if these mobility costs had been zero. In addition, we find that demand‐side factors, that is, technological change and movements in product and capital prices, were responsible for the growth of the service sector.