中国劳动力流动的形势及其变化--从历时最久的流动中得到的启示

文章的目的是探索中国劳动力流动的潜在动态变化,并以墨西哥劳动力迁移到美国的案例为类比对象.墨西哥-美国迁移从开始到现在已经40多年了,文章考察了这一时期墨西哥-美国迁移形势的主要变化,显示其如何随着来源地、目标地和迁移过程的因素变化而变化,并将这些因素与可能影响中国人口流动的类似因素进行了比较.     

Behavioral personal digital assistants: The seventh generation of computing

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior - Skinner (1985) described two divergent approaches to developing computer systems that would behave with some approximation to intelligence. The first approach,...     

The once and future crisis

The insurance crisis of the mid-1980s produced a number of legal and public policy reactions. Although many of the immediate symptoms of that crisis have disappeared, a number of its underlying causes remain. This article analyzes the continuing effect of these factors on the insurance markets, and predicts the occurrence of a milder crisis during the mid-1990s.     

Factor structure of quality of life: The Lehman interview

This study of 67 chronically mentally ill outpatients with psychotic disorders examined subjective quality of life scores from Lehman's Quality of Life (QOL) interview. Factor analyses identified ‘Affiliative’ and ‘Instrumental’ dimensions which accounted for 67% of the variance in subjective satisfaction ratings. The results suggest a model in which instrumental and affiliative needs comprise significant portions of subjective life satisfaction and that global QOL satisfaction is related more to instrumental than affiliative needs. These findings further clarify the concept of life satisfaction in this population of severely mentally ill individuals and suggest modifications in how quality of life information is evaluated.     

International Dimensions of Post-1980 Internal Migration in the United States: The Role of Sustenance Specialization and Dominance

Post-1980 internal migration patterns were unanticipated, and prevailing explanations of them fail to account for the effects of new international relationships. A human ecological theory is developed which suggests an explanation based on the sphere of sustenance activities in ecosystems and relative dominance in these activities. Larger net migration was expected for counties specialized in activities that operate in international ecosystems in which the United States is dominant and less in other types of counties. The results for post-1980 migration in United States counties support these expectations and the utility of an expanded human ecological perspective.     

The race gap in support group participation by breast cancer survivors: real or artifact?

Addressing methodological weaknesses of previous research, this study assesses whether African American women are, in fact, less likely to participate in breast cancer support groups than are White women. Of the breast cancer survivors, 958 (26% African Americans, 73% Caucasian) completed interviews concerning demographic characteristics, other support networks, effects of illness on home and spiritual life, and support group participation. Contrary to previous research, no race difference was found in support group participation. This research suggests more effort needs to be paid to sampling techniques and other methodological factors to adequately reflect the experiences and needs of breast cancer survivors, specifically African American women.     

Measuring the impacts of community development initiatives: a new application of the adjusted interrupted time-series method

The authors contribute to the development of empirical methods for measuring the impacts of place-based local development strategies by introducing the adjusted interrupted time-series (AITS) approach. It estimates a more precise counterfactual scenario, thus offering a stronger basis for drawing causal inferences about impacts. The authors applied the AITS approach to three community development initiatives using single-family home prices as the outcome indicator and found that it could measure impacts on both the base level of prices and the rate of price appreciation. The authors also found a situation in which the method appears unreliable, however. The AITS approach benefits from more recurrent data on outcomes during the pre-and post-intervention periods, with an intertemporal pattern that avoids great volatility. The AITS approach to measuring effects of community development initiatives holds strong promise, with caveats.     

A new method for correcting under-estimation of disabled life expectancy and an application to the chinese oldest-old

This article demonstrates that disabled life expectancies that are based on conventional multistate life-table methods are significantly underestimated because of the assumption of no changes in functional status between age x and death. We present a new method to correct the bias and apply it to data from a longitudinal survey of about 9,000 oldest-old Chinese aged 80-105 collected in 1998 and 2000. In our application, the age trajectories of disability (activities of daily living--ADL), status-specific death rates, and the probabilities of transitions between ADL states of the oldest-old were investigated for the first time in a developing country. In this article, we report estimates of bias-corrected disabled and active life expectancies of the Chinese oldest-old and demonstrate patterns of large differences associated with initial status, gender, and advances in ages. Using combined information on ADL disabilities and length of having been bedridden before dying, we analyze gender and age patterns of the extent of morbidity before dying among the oldest-old and their implications for debates on the hypothesis of compression of morbidity.     

Diverse trajectories of cocaine use through early adulthood among rebellious and socially conforming youth

This paper tests predictions of continuity and change in antisocial behavior over time as derived from population heterogeneity and life-course perspectives. These predictions are assessed with respect to a rarely studied form of delinquent/criminal behavior, cocaine use during the late-teenage and young adult years. We first examine the extent to which differential propensities toward antisocial behavior can be detected in a nationally representative sample of youth aged 14-16 in 1979. Based on self-reported delinquent and criminal activities in late adolescense, traditional cross-sectional latent-class analysis identifies three groups of antisocial/rebellious respondents and a group of non-offenders. We then follow these groups into early adulthood, examining age trajectories of cocaine usage between 1984 and 1998. Latent-class trajectory models identify clusters of respondents who show similar age trajectories of cocaine use over time and provide parameter estimates that predict membership in those clusters. In support of the population heterogeneity perspective, we find that antisocial/rebellious youth have higher probabilities of cocaine use throughout early adulthood than non-of-fending youth. There is, however, much variation in drug use patterns among the groups as they aged. In support of a life-course perspective, we find that social ties to schools, families, religion, and the labor market help differentiate youth who refrain from, maintain, or desist from using cocaine through early adulthood.