Unobserved-Components Models for Seasonal Adjustment Filters

Time series models are presented, for which the seasonal-component estimates delivered by linear least squares signal extraction closely approximate those of the standard option of the widely-used Census X-11 program. Earlier work is extended by consideration of a broader class of models and by examination of asymmetric filters, in addition to the symmetric filter implicit in the adjustment of historical data. Various criteria that guide the specification of unobserved- components models are discussed, and a new preferred model is presented. Some nonstandard options in X-11 are considered in the Appendix.     

GNR,MGR, and exact misspeclfication testing

The Gauss-Newton regression (GNR) is widely used to compute Lagrange multiplier statistics. A regression described by Milliken and Graybill yields an exact F test in a certain class of nonlinear models which are linear under the null. This paper shows that the Milliken-Graybill regression is a GNR. Hence one interpretation of Milliken-Graybill is that they identified a class of nonlinear models for which the GNR yields an exact test.     

GNR, MGR, and exact misspeclfication testing

The Gauss-Newton regression (GNR) is widely used to compute Lagrange multiplier statistics. A regression described by Milliken and Graybill yields an exact F test in a certain class of nonlinear models which are linear under the null. This paper shows that the Milliken-Graybill regression is a GNR. Hence one interpretation of Milliken-Graybill is that they identified a class of nonlinear models for which the GNR yields an exact test.     

Exploring the Traits of Happy People

This paper explores self-reported happiness across afourfold personality framework that synthesizespsychoanalytic and psychometric approaches topersonality structure. Using survey data from arepresentative sample of the U.S. adult population, weidentified four personality types rooted in two basicdimensions – Extraversion/Introversion andTendermindedness/Toughmindedness. On a general level,we found that Extraverts were happier than Introverts,and Tendermindeds were happier than Toughmindeds. More specifically, we identified patterns ofsimilarities and differences across personality typesin the meaning of happiness with respect to goodeating habits, financial insecurity, anxiety andtension, financial optimism, and health concerns.     

A longitudinal analysis of family migration and the gender gap in earnings in the united states and great britain

This article uses longitudinal data for the United States and Great Britain to examine the impact of residential mobility and childbirth on the earnings of women, their family earnings, and the related division of earnings by gender. This project is the _ rst to compare explicitly the impact of childbirth and family migration on women’s earnings, and it extends prior cross-sectional and longitudinal studies on isolated countries by providing a direct contrast between two major industrialized nations, using comparable measures. The results indicate that families respond in similar ways in both countries to migration and childbirth. In response to both migration and childbirth, women’s earnings fall at the time of the event and recover slowly afterward, but the magnitude of the impact is roughly twice as large for childbirth as for migration. However, migration but not the birth of a child is also associated with a significant increase in total family earnings because of increased husbands’ earnings. As a result, the effect of migration on the relative earnings of wives to husbands is similar to the effect of childbirth. These results suggest that family migration should be given consideration in the literature on the gender earnings gap.     

Pre‐procreative ages in population stability and cyclicity

Age‐specific models of population renewal (with and without feedback) which imply convergence to a stable state for some levels of fertility or feedback may imply the presence of long‐term cycling around a constant or exponentially changing equilibrium for other levels of fertility or feedback. The switch from one regime to the other is a “bifurcation.”; The conditions for bifurcation involve the roots of an analogue of Lotka's Equation.

Typically bifurcation is induced by raising the strength of feedback or the level of fertility. It has been known since the early 1980s, however, that this is sometimes impossible. It is sometimes impossible even with the linear renewal equation itself and with the most basic of non‐linear models, Lee's cohort feedback model.

Here it is proved that this typical route to bifurcation does not fail for these basic models in the presence of a condition which always holds for realistic applications with higher organisms: the existence of a span of ages before the onset of fertility.

Specifically, a strictly positive lower bound on ages of procreation is proved to be sufficient to guarantee the existence of a rescaling of Lotka's Equation for which the real part of some complex root vanishes. This result holds for absolutely Lebesgue‐integrable (signed) net maternity functions on the positive real line and for absolutely summable (signed) net maternities on the positive integers.

It follows that Coale's rescaling device for the analysis of approach to stability in stable population theory can be implemented for all realistic human net maternity schedules. It also follows that the many special cases of the cohort feedback model throughout population biology will all generate persistent cycling instead of stability if feedback is sufficiently strong.     

Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Associations of Categories of Physical Activities with Dimensions of Subjective Well-Being in Taiwanese Older Adults

Physical activity takes place in different social contexts such as leisure, home, and work. However, the differential associations of these distinct categories of activity with aspects of well-being have rarely been investigated. This study was designed to estimate independent associations of (a) leisure-time, (b) domestic and (c) work-related physical activities with subjective well-being in older adults. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2009 with 2,295 community-dwelling older adults aged 65 or older in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Among them, 307 participants were selected for a 3-year follow-up study in 2012. The results based on cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses demonstrated that leisure-time physical activity, after multivariate adjustment, was positively associated with five dimensions of well-being, including ‘physical’, ‘psychological’, ‘independence’, ‘learning and growth’, and ‘social’ well-being. Household physical activity was positively associated only with ‘social’ well-being. Occupational physical activity was not related to any dimension of well-being. The study suggests that associations between physical activity and dimensions of subjective well-being during later life are dependent on the social context in which the activity takes place. This study indicates that physical activity taken as leisure has greatest potential to enhance the quality of life of older adults.     

Back to Normal: Gender and Disaster

Our earlier studies of Hurricane Andrew focused on the destruction of everyday life during the crisis itself and the reconstruction of a taken-for-granted world during the recovery period; this paper examines the significance of gender in these processes. The abrupt loss of taken-for-granted reality occasioned by the storm involved only a slight and momentary disruption of gender roles. The resilience of these roles can be understood only if gender is seen as a property of social organization that shapes not only interactional expectations and pressures, but also cultural and institutional processes, as well as bodily experiences.