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911.
Since 1979, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has nearly quadrupled the size of the sample used to estimate monthly employment changes. Although first‐reported employment estimates are still noisy, the magnitude of sampling variability has declined in proportion to the increase in the sample size. A model of rational Bayesian updating predicts that investors would assign more weight to the BLS employment survey as it became more precise. However, a regression analysis of changes in interest rates on the day the employment data are released finds no evidence that the bond market's reaction to employment news intensified in the late 1980s or 1990s; indeed, in the late 1990s and early 2000s the bond markets hardly reacted to unexpected employment news. For the time period as a whole, an unexpected increase of 200,000 jobs is associated with about a 6 basis point increase in the interest rate on 30‐year Treasury bonds, and an 8 basis point increase in the interest rate on three‐month bills, all else equal. Additionally, unexpected changes in the unemployment rate and revisions to past months' employment estimates have statistically insignificant effects on long‐term interest rates. (JEL: G14, J23) 相似文献
912.
Evidence on the Superiority of Analysts Quarterly Earnings Forecasts for Small Capitalization Firms*
Financial analysts provide information to support investment analysis and decisions for an ever increasing number of firms. As part of their services they also produce earnings forecasts for covered firms. While there has been much research investigating the determinants of financial analyst earnings forecast superiority for large, widely-followed firms, little research has focused on smaller firms. Until recently, these smaller firms have been largely ignored. This study focuses exclusively on small firms and provides evidence of differing behavior for such firms compared to results previously reported for large firms. Errors in quarterly earnings per share forecasts of small firms obtained from a univariate time-series model are also examined. Regression results indicate that time-series model parameters possess information content with respect to forecast accuracy for analyst-covered firms only. These results are obtained after controlling for firm size, model adequacy, and industry, quarter, and year effects. This suggests that analysts are more likely to cover small firms for which they are able to decipher information correlated with that impounded in the “shocks” in the quarterly earnings time series as captured by the time-series model parameters. 相似文献
913.
Kenneth R. Ferris 《决策科学》1978,9(3):379-390
Expectancy theory has been tested in a variety of research settings with somewhat mixed results. One possible explanation for the sometimes low predictive ability of the model is the presence of environmental uncertainty. It was hypothesized that the greater the perceived environmental uncertainty, the greater the uncertainty regarding expectancy estimates. Hence, the predicted relationship between the level of motivation and job performance was expected to vary with the level of perceived uncertainty. Empirical results are presented supporting the hypothesis. 相似文献
914.
915.
A new multiperiod variation of the M-traveling salesman problem is introduced. The problem arises in efficient scheduling of optimal interviews among tour brokers and vendors at conventions of the tourism and travel industry. In classical traveling salesman problem vocabulary, a salesman is a tour broker at the convention and a city is a vendor's booth. In this problem, more than one salesman may be required to visit a city, but at most one salesman per time period can visit each city. The heuristic solution method presented is polynomial and is guaranteed to produce a nonconflicting set of salesmen's tours. The results of an implementation of the method for a recent convention are also reported. 相似文献
916.
A shrinking pool of potential students, due to a declining birthrate as well as uncertain economic times, is creating the need for more effective recruiting of college students. One approach using a goal programming model has been developed and is currently being used to manage recruitment activities in a small four-year college in Nebraska. The model identifies both the type and number of activities that must be completed each quarter in order to reach an enrollment goal for a given year. Factors such as budget, time, manpower, and marketing strategies are highlighted in the model. The results of the goal programming model encouraged more field activities in the first two quarters with emphasis on new-candidate identification. The third-quarter recruiting strategy is more balanced while the fourth-quarter emphasis is placed on follow-up activities that occur chiefly in the office. Use of this model will enable recruiters to meet enrollments while managing recruiting resources and activities in order to remain within the recruiting budget. 相似文献
917.
One of the most striking changes in the U.S. economy over the past 50 years has been the growth in the service sector. Between 1950 and 2000, service‐sector employment grew from 57 to 75 percent of total employment. However, over this time, the real hourly wage in the service sector grew only slightly faster than in the goods sector. In this paper, we assess whether or not the essential constancy of the relative wage implies that individuals face small costs of switching sectors, and we quantify the relative importance of labor supply and demand factors in the growth of the service sector. We specify and estimate a two‐sector labor market equilibrium model that allows us to address these empirical issues in a unified framework. Our estimates imply that there are large mobility costs: output in both sectors would have been double their current levels if these mobility costs had been zero. In addition, we find that demand‐side factors, that is, technological change and movements in product and capital prices, were responsible for the growth of the service sector. 相似文献
918.
Andrew D. Monnot Andrey Massarsky Lindsey Garnick Suren B. Bandara Kenneth M. Unice 《Risk analysis》2023,43(8):1533-1538
Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are ubiquitous in the environment and are detected in wildlife and humans. With respect to human exposure, studies have shown that ingestion is the primary route of exposure; however, in certain settings, exposure via inhalation could also be a significant source of exposure. While many studies examined toxicity of PFAS via ingestion, limited information is available for PFAS toxicity via the inhalation route, translating into a lack of exposure guidelines. Consequently, this article examined whether route-to-route extrapolation to derive guidelines for inhalation exposure is appropriate for PFAS. Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) were used as exemplary PFAS given the abundance of toxicity data for these two compounds. Our evaluation determined that available toxicity and toxicokinetic data support route-to-route extrapolation for PFAS in order to derive inhalation-based standards. Results from this analysis suggest that an air concentration of 7.0 × 10−5 mg/m3 (or 0.07 μg/m3) would be an appropriate RfC for PFOA and PFOS assuming the 2016 EPA RfD of 0.00002 mg/kg-day, whereas use of the interim RfDs proposed in 2022 of 1.5 × 10−9 and 7.9 × 10−9 mg/kg would yield much lower RfCs of 5.25 × 10−9 and 2.77 × 10−8 mg/m3 (or 5.25 × 10−6 and 2.77 × 10−5 μg/m3) for PFOA and PFOS, respectively. 相似文献
919.