冷战后国际关系与美国外交政策

冷战结束以后国际政治发生的巨大变化是由苏联解体和国际权力结构的失衡所造成的。在失去了苏联的制衡之后,美国的行为越来越表现出肆意妄为和粗暴蛮横的特征。美国用先发制人战略取代威慑和遏制战略是错误的,布什政府的单边主义政策只能使美国在世界上越来越孤立。国际均势的恢复是一个漫长的过程,但是,国际体系的均势最终将会实现。     

Pope John Paul II and Catholic Opinion Toward the Death Penalty and Abortion*

Objective. Research on opinion leadership examines the convergence of opinion between elites and masses on issues of public policy. I examine the confluence of opinion between Pope John Paul II and American Catholics on the death penalty and legalized abortion. Method. I use data from three nationally representative opinion surveys and one statewide survey conducted prior to John Paul's death. Results. The results support the supposition that Catholics who esteemed the pope are more negative in their evaluations of the death penalty and abortion. Conclusions. John Paul II, as leader of the Catholic Church, may have influenced Catholic opinion on political issues.     

The theory of risk-bearing: Small and great risks

Under certain conditions, risk-sharing and, in particular, insurance are mutually advantageous transactions. An ideal competitive market fcr risk-shifting is described; the payments received by individuals depend on the resolution of all the uncertainties at the time of the market, including, for example, damages to all parties, not just to the insured. In an ideal system, premiums depend only on the total damage in a given state, not on its distribution over individuals. In particular, mitigation measures are optimally induced. The differences between the ideal model of insurance and the real world are described, and some explanations offered.     

Variance Function Regression in Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Models: Applications to the Study of Self-Reported Health

Two long-standing research problems of interest to sociologists are sources of variations in social inequalities and differential contributions of the temporal dimensions of age, time period, and cohort to variations in social phenomena. Recently, scholars have introduced a model called Variance Function Regression for the study of the former problem, and a model called Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort regression has been developed for the study of the latter. This article presents an integration of these two models as a means to study the evolution of social inequalities along distinct temporal dimensions. We apply the integrated model to survey data on subjective health status. We find substantial age, period, and cohort effects, as well as gender differences, not only for the conditional mean of self-rated health (i.e., between-group disparities), but also for the variance in this mean (i.e., within-group disparities)-and it is detection of age, period, and cohort variations in the latter disparities that application of the integrated model permits. Net of effects of age and individual-level covariates, in recent decades, cohort differences in conditional means of self-rated health have been less important than period differences that cut across all cohorts. By contrast, cohort differences of variances in these conditional means have dominated period differences. In particular, post-baby boom birth cohorts show significant and increasing levels of within-group disparities. These findings illustrate how the integrated model provides a powerful framework through which to identify and study the evolution of variations in social inequalities across age, period, and cohort temporal dimensions. Accordingly, this model should be broadly applicable to the study of social inequality in many different substantive contexts.     

LIFESPAN AND OUTPUT

This paper develops a finite-lifetime continuous-time model of human capital acquisition. Exogenous technological progress has two aspects, a knowledge frontier and an ease-of-learning parameter. We find that as lifespan increases: (1) output per person-hour rises in a concave fashion, and (2) learning during the work-phase of life only occurs when individuals have a sufficiently long lifespan. As a result, countries that differ in the average lifespan of their inhabitants can have permanently different levels of output per person even in the presence of free trade, perfect capital markets and common production functions. ( JEL O33, J24, F43, D91)     

GNR,MGR, and exact misspeclfication testing

The Gauss-Newton regression (GNR) is widely used to compute Lagrange multiplier statistics. A regression described by Milliken and Graybill yields an exact F test in a certain class of nonlinear models which are linear under the null. This paper shows that the Milliken-Graybill regression is a GNR. Hence one interpretation of Milliken-Graybill is that they identified a class of nonlinear models for which the GNR yields an exact test.     

An Experimental Test of the Effects of Fictional Framing on Attitudes*

Objectives. Most studies of media effects in political communication focus on news media. A smaller body of work extends theories of news media effects to fictional entertainment media. Just as news media engage in priming and agenda setting, these studies suggest that fictional media do as well. In this study, we deal with fictional media's framing of issues. No research has sought to test the effects of framing in explicitly fictional media on political opinions. We develop the outlines of a theory we call “fictional framing” and test it in an experiment. Methods. Participants in our treatment group watched the film Cider House Rules. The movie frames the issue of abortion in the case of incest in a pro‐choice way, and frames morality in terms of following one's own conscience. Results. The film influenced opinions in ways consistent with the framing of these issues. Conclusions. Since abortion opinions and moral values tend to be entrenched, we consider this a strong first test of the effects of fictional framing.     

Sleep hygiene practices and sleep duration in rotating-shift shiftworkers

Abstract

Alcohol, caffeine and tobacco intake, exercise, activities on going to bed, and sleep-enhancing measures were assessed in 72 rotating-shift shiftworkers to determine whether these variables differ following day shifts and night-shifts, and which are related to sleep duration. Only alcohol intake and exercise prior to sleep, and feeling drowsy when retiring, differed following the night-shift. Workers generally followed recommendations concerning alcohol intake, sleeping immediately on retiring, and exercising, but acted contrary to recommendations concerning caffeine and nicotine intake. The only behaviour clearly associated with poor sleep was smoking, which reduced sleep duration.