Distributional results for special cases of the jolly-seber model

The multinomial-binomial approach to the Jolly-Seber capture- recapture model is used as a basis to derive explicit probability distributions for special cases of the Jolly-Seber model:no recruitment, or no mortality. Also given are the residual distributions that allow tests of these restricted models compared to the general Jolly-Seber model. Losses on capture are allowed. The special case distribution is also derived for no recruitment and no mortality, but allowing losses on capture; this is a generalized version of Darroch's closed capture-recapture model. Here, however, it was not possible to obtain a closed form residual distribution.     

The expansion of religious affiliation: An explanation of the growth of church participation in the United States 1850–1930

This paper focuses on the period in U.S. history that experienced the most rapid rate of increase of church membership—the decades between 1850 and 1930—in order to explain synchronic and diachronic variation in those rates. Using pooled cross-sectional time series analysis, different predictions are derived and tested from theories of secularization/social control, comparative disadvantage, resource mobilization, and pluralism. The effects of spatial diffusion and the momentum of religious tradition also are estimated. Our conclusion is that religious monopoly—not diversity—fuels religious expansion. This finding is bolstered by the complementary result that ethnic homogeneity is also conducive to religious expansion. Together these results highlight the importance for mobilization of religious and ethnocultural dominance in a particular niche.     

Diverse trajectories of cocaine use through early adulthood among rebellious and socially conforming youth

This paper tests predictions of continuity and change in antisocial behavior over time as derived from population heterogeneity and life-course perspectives. These predictions are assessed with respect to a rarely studied form of delinquent/criminal behavior, cocaine use during the late-teenage and young adult years. We first examine the extent to which differential propensities toward antisocial behavior can be detected in a nationally representative sample of youth aged 14-16 in 1979. Based on self-reported delinquent and criminal activities in late adolescense, traditional cross-sectional latent-class analysis identifies three groups of antisocial/rebellious respondents and a group of non-offenders. We then follow these groups into early adulthood, examining age trajectories of cocaine usage between 1984 and 1998. Latent-class trajectory models identify clusters of respondents who show similar age trajectories of cocaine use over time and provide parameter estimates that predict membership in those clusters. In support of the population heterogeneity perspective, we find that antisocial/rebellious youth have higher probabilities of cocaine use throughout early adulthood than non-of-fending youth. There is, however, much variation in drug use patterns among the groups as they aged. In support of a life-course perspective, we find that social ties to schools, families, religion, and the labor market help differentiate youth who refrain from, maintain, or desist from using cocaine through early adulthood.     

Evidence on the Superiority of Analysts Quarterly Earnings Forecasts for Small Capitalization Firms*

Financial analysts provide information to support investment analysis and decisions for an ever increasing number of firms. As part of their services they also produce earnings forecasts for covered firms. While there has been much research investigating the determinants of financial analyst earnings forecast superiority for large, widely-followed firms, little research has focused on smaller firms. Until recently, these smaller firms have been largely ignored. This study focuses exclusively on small firms and provides evidence of differing behavior for such firms compared to results previously reported for large firms. Errors in quarterly earnings per share forecasts of small firms obtained from a univariate time-series model are also examined. Regression results indicate that time-series model parameters possess information content with respect to forecast accuracy for analyst-covered firms only. These results are obtained after controlling for firm size, model adequacy, and industry, quarter, and year effects. This suggests that analysts are more likely to cover small firms for which they are able to decipher information correlated with that impounded in the “shocks” in the quarterly earnings time series as captured by the time-series model parameters.     

DO MARKETS RESPOND MORE TO MORE RELIABLE LABOR MARKET DATA? A TEST OF MARKET RATIONALITY

Since 1979, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has nearly quadrupled the size of the sample used to estimate monthly employment changes. Although first‐reported employment estimates are still noisy, the magnitude of sampling variability has declined in proportion to the increase in the sample size. A model of rational Bayesian updating predicts that investors would assign more weight to the BLS employment survey as it became more precise. However, a regression analysis of changes in interest rates on the day the employment data are released finds no evidence that the bond market's reaction to employment news intensified in the late 1980s or 1990s; indeed, in the late 1990s and early 2000s the bond markets hardly reacted to unexpected employment news. For the time period as a whole, an unexpected increase of 200,000 jobs is associated with about a 6 basis point increase in the interest rate on 30‐year Treasury bonds, and an 8 basis point increase in the interest rate on three‐month bills, all else equal. Additionally, unexpected changes in the unemployment rate and revisions to past months' employment estimates have statistically insignificant effects on long‐term interest rates. (JEL: G14, J23)     

PERCEIVED ENVIRONMENTAL UNCERTAINTY AS A MEDIATOR OF EXPECTANCY THEORY PREDICTIONS: SOME PRELIMINARY FINDINGS

Expectancy theory has been tested in a variety of research settings with somewhat mixed results. One possible explanation for the sometimes low predictive ability of the model is the presence of environmental uncertainty. It was hypothesized that the greater the perceived environmental uncertainty, the greater the uncertainty regarding expectancy estimates. Hence, the predicted relationship between the level of motivation and job performance was expected to vary with the level of perceived uncertainty. Empirical results are presented supporting the hypothesis.     

Intersectoral Labor Mobility and the Growth of the Service Sector

One of the most striking changes in the U.S. economy over the past 50 years has been the growth in the service sector. Between 1950 and 2000, service‐sector employment grew from 57 to 75 percent of total employment. However, over this time, the real hourly wage in the service sector grew only slightly faster than in the goods sector. In this paper, we assess whether or not the essential constancy of the relative wage implies that individuals face small costs of switching sectors, and we quantify the relative importance of labor supply and demand factors in the growth of the service sector. We specify and estimate a two‐sector labor market equilibrium model that allows us to address these empirical issues in a unified framework. Our estimates imply that there are large mobility costs: output in both sectors would have been double their current levels if these mobility costs had been zero. In addition, we find that demand‐side factors, that is, technological change and movements in product and capital prices, were responsible for the growth of the service sector.     

A New Multiperiod Multiple Traveling Salesman Problem with Heuristic and Application to a Scheduling Problem

A new multiperiod variation of the M-traveling salesman problem is introduced. The problem arises in efficient scheduling of optimal interviews among tour brokers and vendors at conventions of the tourism and travel industry. In classical traveling salesman problem vocabulary, a salesman is a tour broker at the convention and a city is a vendor's booth. In this problem, more than one salesman may be required to visit a city, but at most one salesman per time period can visit each city. The heuristic solution method presented is polynomial and is guaranteed to produce a nonconflicting set of salesmen's tours. The results of an implementation of the method for a recent convention are also reported.     

MANAGEMENT OF COLLEGE STUDENT RECRUITING ACTIVITIES USING GOAL PROGRAMMING*

A shrinking pool of potential students, due to a declining birthrate as well as uncertain economic times, is creating the need for more effective recruiting of college students. One approach using a goal programming model has been developed and is currently being used to manage recruitment activities in a small four-year college in Nebraska. The model identifies both the type and number of activities that must be completed each quarter in order to reach an enrollment goal for a given year. Factors such as budget, time, manpower, and marketing strategies are highlighted in the model. The results of the goal programming model encouraged more field activities in the first two quarters with emphasis on new-candidate identification. The third-quarter recruiting strategy is more balanced while the fourth-quarter emphasis is placed on follow-up activities that occur chiefly in the office. Use of this model will enable recruiters to meet enrollments while managing recruiting resources and activities in order to remain within the recruiting budget.