Stochastic modelling of regional annual rainfall anomalies in East Africa

ARIMA (p, d, q) models were fitted to areal annual rainfall of two homogeneous regions in East Africa with rainfall records extending between the period 1922–80. The areal estimates of the regional rainfall were derived from the time series of the first eigenvector, which was significantly dominant at each of the two regions. The first eigenvector accounted for about 80% of the total rainfall variance in each region.

The class of ARIMA (p, d, q) models which best fitted the areal indices of relative wetness/dryness were the A R M A (3, 1) models. Tests of forecasting skill however indicated low skill in the forecasts given by these models. In all cases the models accounted for less than 50% of the total variance.

Spectral analysis of the indices time series indicated dominant quasi-periodic fluctuations around 2.2–2.8 years, 3–3.7 years, 5–6 years and 10–13 years. These spectral bands however accounted for very low proportion of the total rainfall variance.     

Marriage and its transition in Bangladesh

The author examines developments in marriage patterns in Bangladesh in light of social, cultural, and economic conditions. Previous literature on the subject is used to discuss Muslim marriage, Hindu marriage, child marriage, mate selection and social mobility, and the question of a marriage squeeze. "The analysis presents evidence that the society is experiencing a change in its family formation, mating process and family type. This transition is to some extent towards the characteristics of [the] Western World, but in a poor economy. Part of this transition is due to the effect of modernization and part due to increasing poverty."     

International factors in the formation of refugee movements

The authors construct a theoretical framework for analyzing factors influencing international refugee movements. "On the basis of detailed case studies by the authors of the principal refugee flows generated in Asia, Africa, and Latin America from approximately 1960 to the present, it was found that international factors often intrude both directly and indirectly on the major types of social conflict that trigger refugee flows, and tend to exacerbate their effects. Refugees are also produced by conflicts that are manifestly international, but which are themselves often related to internal social conflict among the antagonists."     

The therapeutic utilization of canines in a child welfare setting

This article describes the therapeutic use of canines in child welfare work. The chronically rejected child, or those who virtually spend their entire youth in care, tend to develop a withdrawn, depressed, and suspicious posture toward their relations with other people. This ultimately results in their failure to respond to conventional treatment modalities. Under these circumstances, the canine intervention may prove to be a valuable adjunct, helping to develop and to expedite the process of the therapeutic alliance.This article is a revised version of one presented to meet the requirements for the Masters in Social Work Degree from Hunter College School of Social Work.     

The recent socio-economic transformations in Italy and its internal and external migratory movements

Recent migration trends involving Italy are described. The authors note that Italy has changed from a manpower-exporting country to a labor-importing country. Consideration is also given to changes in internal migration patterns.     

The law,immigration and human rights: changing the Australian immigration control system

This paper examines the structure of the present system of immigration control in Australia in the context of its origin, evolution, and responses to current human rights and anti-discrimination standards. The system has serious shortcomings because it confers broad discredionary powers on immigration officals and provides no comprehensive system of judical review. Since the 1970s the system has been gradually losing its legitimacy and has become a subject of challenges by various groups; its efficiency has been undermined and it breeds social conflict and systematic human rights violations. The 1958 Migration Act contains a level of discretion unknown in other "machinery" legislation, conferring a wide range of discretionay power on 1) the minister, 2) authorized officers, 3) officers, and 4) prescribed authorities. The current review system, in response to political pressure and in the context of administrative law reforms, provides for limited access to judicial review under the Administrative Decisions Act of 1977. The ethnic gains of the 1970s were achieved when Australian society was going through a period of profound liberal changes. The 1980s have brought continuing high unemployment and high inflation rates, a large budget deficit and associated restraints in government expenditure, as well as a substantial cut in the immigrant intake after the Labor Victory of March, 1983. Overall, an entirely new immigration control system should be developed that will aim at providing a better balance between stability, predictability, and fairness of the system on the one hand, and the need for government to maintain its ability to adapt its program to fluctuations in economic and social conditions both within and outside Australia on the other hand.     

Gender,academic careers,and the social psychology of aging

Because of cultural, historical and other social structural factors, men and women with the same chronological age have had quite different career trajectories. This paper examines how the different career-paths of men and women academics create differences in their images of aging, self and work. In-depth interviews (N=47) were conducted with a sample of male and female professors, currently between fifty and sixty years of age. Male respondents nearly uniformly followed continuous, linear careers while the women's careers were, with equal uniformity, discontinuous. Data suggest that this difference in career routes fashions different gender timeclocks, i.e., different experiences of aging.     

The encoding and decoding of liking from behavioral cues in both auditory and visual channels

Fifty high school students met in same-sex dyads for the first time over a cup of coffee in an experimental room designed as a comfortable living room. They then responded to a questionnaire designed to measure liking and perceived similarity. The interactions were video-taped. Two different panels of 6 judges later either viewed (video only) or heard (audio-only) the videotape and raed the subjects behavior on a number of scales. The judges also judged the degree of liking felt by the subjects by estimating subjects responses to the questionnaire. In addition gaze behaviour during the interaction was measured. Factor analysis demonstrated that 60% of the variance in The Liking Scale was attributed to 14 items relating to liking and perceived similarity. A separate factor to assess perceived similarity could not be found. Twenty-nine percent of the variance in the liking reported by subjects was predicted by an interrelated pattern of expressing behaviour including approproate looking, mutual gaze, self-disclosure, synchrony in movement and gesture, expressiveness of the face and liveliness of the voice. Video judges liking correlated 0.33 with subjects liking and 48% of the variance in their judgements was explained by the valid cues of looking and expressiveness of the face. Audio judges liking, although it correlated at 0.34 with video judges liking, did not correlate at all with subjects' liking because of an over-reliance on the important content cues. It is suggested that major problems leading to decoding inaccuracy may be over-reliance on content cues and over-confidence in the possibility of decoding accuracy. The evidence suggests that differences between subjects in encoding may be considerable.     

A tool for selecting residential child care workers: an initial report

What strengths and talents make an outstanding child care worker? How can these qualities be measured? How can one predict whether an individual will succeed as a child care worker? The authors attempt to answer these questions by focusing on the "life themes" of highly rated child care workers and using a technique to measure these themes.     

Relationship quality of gay men in closed or open relationships

This study compared gay men in monogamous ("closed") relationships (n = 98) and gay men in nonmonogamous ("open") relationships (n = 34). Partners in open relationships were living together significantly longer than partners in closed relationships. Partners in the two types of relationships did not differ in Psychological Adjustment. Controlling for length of time living together, partners in closed relationships reported higher Affiliation/Dependency, more Favorable Attitudes toward the Relationship, and lower Tension than partners in open relationships. Global relationship quality for both types of couples was related to many Attractions, many Barriers, and few Alternatives to the relationship; few beliefs regarding both Disagreement is Destructive and Partners Cannot Change; high Dyadic Attachment; high Shared Decision Making; and low Psychological Maladjustment. Partners in both types of relationships were more similar to each other than different from each other, especially on the variables of Relationship Quality, a belief in Partner Changeability, and Dyadic Attachment.