Kimberly M. Thompson  Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens  Mark A. Pallansch  Olen M. Kew  Roland W. Sutter  R. Bruce Aylward  Margaret Watkins  Howard Gary  James P. Alexander  Linda Venczel  Denise Johnson  Victor M. Cáceres  Nalinee Sangrujee  Hamid Jafari  Stephen L. Cochi 《Risk analysis》2006,26(6):1571-1580

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.  相似文献   

    

Simon J. T. Pollard  Ray V. Kemp  Mark Crawford  Raquel Duarte-Davidson  James G. Irwin  Roger Yearsley 《Risk analysis》2004,24(6):1551-1560

Environmental policymakers and regulators are often in the position of having to prioritize their actions across a diverse range of environmental pressures to secure environmental protection and improvements. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of strategic analysis can be disparate; it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy analysis and comparison. Nevertheless, judgments are required on the significance of various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties to inform strategic assessments such as “state of the environment” reports. How can decisionmakers go about this type of strategic and comparative risk analysis? In an attempt to provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has conducted a program of developmental research on strategic risk assessment since 1996. The tools developed under this program use the concept of “environmental harm” as a common metric, viewed from technical, social, and economic perspectives, to analyze impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate on the relative importance of these perspectives is an understanding and analysis of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to actual or potential environmental harm from a range of hazards. Recent developments in our approach, described herein, allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk‐management decisions.  相似文献   

    

Whitney K. Newey  James L. Powell 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2003,71(5):1565-1578

In econometrics there are many occasions where knowledge of the structural relationship among dependent variables is required to answer questions of interest. This paper gives identification and estimation results for nonparametric conditional moment restrictions. We characterize identification of structural functions as completeness of certain conditional distributions, and give sufficient identification conditions for exponential families and discrete variables. We also give a consistent, nonparametric estimator of the structural function. The estimator is nonparametric two‐stage least squares based on series approximation, which overcomes an ill‐posed inverse problem by placing bounds on integrals of higher‐order derivatives.  相似文献   

    

James B. Rieley 《Global Business and Organizational Excellence》2003,22(3):53-64

A variety of difficulties can arise when defining, designing, and coordinating a large project. Some organizational tools can help each step along the way. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   

    

Maria Leung  James H. Lambert  Alexander Mosenthal 《Risk analysis》2004,24(4):963-984

This article presents an approach to the problem of terrorism risk assessment and management by adapting the framework of the risk filtering, ranking, and management method. The assessment is conducted at two levels: (1) the system level, and (2) the asset-specific level. The system-level risk assessment attempts to identify and prioritize critical infrastructures from an inventory of system assets. The definition of critical infrastructures offered by Presidential Decision Directive 63 was used to determine the set of attributes to identify critical assets--categorized according to national, regional, and local impact. An example application is demonstrated using information from the Federal Highway Administration National Bridge Inventory for the State of Virginia. Conversely, the asset-specific risk assessment performs an in-depth analysis of the threats and vulnerabilities of a specific critical infrastructure. An illustration is presented to offer some insights in risk scenario identification and prioritization, multiobjective evaluation of management options, and extreme-event analysis for critical infrastructure protection.  相似文献   

    

James B. Rieley  Ian Clarkson 《Global Business and Organizational Excellence》2001,20(4):45-52

Too often, change management efforts focus solely on the new, desired end results—but ignore the shaping of new behaviors that are implicitly required to reach them. There are some practical tools—used by a business advisory firm and others—that can help make the implicit explicit. By using them, the organization aligns its people's actions with their goals, increasing the likelihood of improved performance. © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  相似文献   

    

James J. Kline 《Global Business and Organizational Excellence》2001,20(3):41-47

Recognizing that customer service is becoming an increasingly important function of government, quality award‐winning governments, at all levels and around the world, are not only seeking customer feedback, but are incorporating customer satisfaction measures into their strategic plans. Thus, they are setting customer standards that are evaluated regularly, benchmarking customer service procedures against the best in business, and including customer service training, benchmarking, and customer satisfaction performance measures in labor contracts. This article, which examined the customer service practices of quality award‐winning governments at the federal, state, and local level in the United Kingdom, United States, and Australia, demonstrates the worldwide nature of the quality improvement and customer satisfaction effort. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  相似文献   

    

James M. Hunt  Joseph Weintraub 《Global Business and Organizational Excellence》2002,21(2):39-44

Managers who coach their employees become known as good managers to work for, developers of talent, and achievers of business results. They also become better leaders in the process. The average manager, however, doesn't coach, believing it would take too much time or be a waste of effort. Such barriers, however, are more psychological than real, and represent an expression of the status quo. The fact is that coaching managers behave differently, and that contributes to their brand. The bottom line: Since most managers don't coach, those who do actively help their employees learn and grow have a competitive advantage, one that can enhance their careers. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   

    

James W. Cortada 《Global Business and Organizational Excellence》2002,21(2):23-29

The perspectives of history are usually seen to be of value in politics, but the same approach can equally well serve businesses. Learning from the past—of the company, of the industry, of the market—can help point the way to future success. Consider what a historian could do for your company. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   

    

James Andreoni  John Miller 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2002,70(2):737-753

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