Comparison of household-survey estimates with projections of mortality and orphan numbers in sub-Saharan Africa in the era of HIV/AIDS

The United Nations publishes estimates of HIV prevalence, AIDS mortality, and orphan numbers for all countries of the world. It is important to assess the validity of these model-based estimates since they underpin much policy concerned with care and prevention. Household surveys that ask questions about the survival of children's parents (orphanhood) offer an independent source of data with which these estimates can be compared. Survey estimates of maternal and paternal orphans are significantly lower than model estimates for 40 surveys in 36 countries of sub-Saharan Africa (p < 0.001, p = 0.002). This is probably because adult mortality from causes other than AIDS is lower than assumed in the models, although under-reporting of orphanhood in surveys may also play a role. Reducing adult mortality from causes other than AIDS brings the model estimates into close agreement with the surveys. This suggests that the fraction of orphans attributable to AIDS is greater than estimated previously.     

A life satisfaction scale for use with national adult samples from the USA,Canada and Mexico

This paper describes the steps we took to develop a measure of life satisfaction which appears useful for analyses of adult sample survey data from the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Our procedure is factor analysis, and our data are drawn from the 1981–82 and 1991–92 World Values Surveys conducted in the three countries. The result is a six-variable composite measure which meets the following conditions: the constituent items have face validity, the factor structure is similar across countries and also across sub-groups within countries, the factor structure is also similar in 1981–82 and 1991–92, and the factor score based on these structures is highly correlated with variables that are customarily good predictors of life satisfaction and happiness. On the basis of these results, we will be confident in using the life satisfaction measure for future multivariate analyses of the data base aimed at explaining variation in satisfaction. For the same reasons, we would recommend the life satisfaction measure for others' research with the rich World Values Surveys data base.     

Population growth and air quality in California

Demographers are often interested in the environmental impacts of population growth. I examine the impact of growth specifically on air quality in California. In recent decades, California has suffered from notoriously polluted air and has experienced rapid population growth. Despite the population .growth, air quality actually has improved since the early 1980s due to aggressive regulatory efforts. Using data for 56 counties, I analyze the contribution of population growth to trends in atmospheric emissions of five regulated pollutants from 1980 to 1990, controlling for trends in per capita income and regulatory efforts. The analysis is disaggregated by source of emissions and demonstrates that population growth is strongly associated with some sources of emissions but not with others. Thus, the overall impact of population growth depends upon the composition of production and consumption activities in each county. I also explore whether the trend in number of households predicts better than the trend in number of persons, and whether the impact of population growth depends upon the age structure or source of growth (immigration or domestic increase). Generally, these alternative specifications of population do not improve the models of atmospheric emissions.     

Family Demography,Social Theory,and Investment in Social Capital

The analytic models used by family demographers would be strengthened by the concept of social capital, placed in the context of social exchange theory. Using that concept to designate resources that emerge from social ties, the authors advance five propositions: 1) social capital is a multidimensional attribute of an individual; 2) the dimensions of social capital are the number of relationships a person has, their quality (strength), and the resources available through those relationships; 3) group membership and interaction facilitate the development of social capital; 4) the structural properties of groups influence the development of social capital; and 5) the acquisition and maintenance of social capital is a major motivator of human behavior. The formation of sexual partnerships, the birth and rearing of children, and both intragenerational and intergenerational transfers constitute major forms of investment in social capital in virtually all societies.     

The Time-Pressure Illusion: Discretionary Time vs. Free Time

People’s welfare is a function of both time and money. People can – and, it is said, increasingly do – suffer time-poverty as well as money-poverty. It is undeniably true that people feel increasingly time pressured, particularly in dual-earner households. But much of the time devoted to paid and unpaid tasks is over and above that which is strictly necessary. In that sense, much of the time pressure that people feel is discretionary and of their own making. Using data from the 1992 Australian Time Use Survey, this paper demonstrates that the magnitude of this ‘time-pressure illusion’ varies across population groups, being least among lone parents and greatest among the childless and two-earner couples.     

The influence of catholic schools on the desegregation of public school systems: A case study of white flight in Boston

White flight from public school desegregation can result in educational and residential resegregation which defeat the purpose of desegregation programs. One form of white flight is pupil transfer to private schools, which in major metropolitan areas are predominantly Catholic schools. Unlike residential relocation, transfers to Catholic schools do not effect an increase in residential segregation and they constitute a potentially less permanent loss to the public system than that caused by relocation. Nevertheless, empty seats in area Catholic schools pose a threat to the success of any desegregation program. For the Catholic diocese, the white flight issue creates a complex conflict of interests, involving institutional self-interest and competing claims to moral principles and Church teachings.A case study of Boston indicates that approximately 2,000 students transferred to Catholic schools from the public system, accounting for over 20 percent of white pupil loss to the public system. This occurred despite diocesan policies designed to prevent white flight to Catholic schools. An analysis of political and institutional constraints on policy development and implementation provides a basis for predicting Church response to future desegregation programs in other locations. Suggestions for diocesan programs designed to address desegregation issues are included.This research was conducted as part of a national study of public school desegregation directed by Karl E. Taeuber. Funding was provided by the Institute for Research on Poverty and the Wisconsin Center for Educational Research, both at the University of Wisconsin at Madison. I wish to thank Dr. Taeuber for facilitating this particular study and for helpful comments on an earlier draft. I also wish to acknowledge the valuable assistance of Mary J. McDonald and Roger Hedge of the Massachusetts Department of Education and Rev. Eugene Sullivan, Superintendent of Schools of the Archdiocese of Boston. Conclusions and interpretations presented here are the sole responsibility of the author.     

Census-derived estimates of fertility by duration since first marriage in the Republic of Korea

This paper estimates ever-married birth rates by age and duration since first marriage and ever-married total fertility rates for the Republic of Korea, derived by applying an extension of the own-children method of fertility estimation to the 1975 and 1980 censuses. Since each census provides annual estimates for the 15-year period previous to enumeration, there is a ten-year period of overlapping estimates that facilitates checks for consistency and accuracy. Comparisons are also made with estimates derived from the 1974 Korea National Fertility Survey, which was part of the World Fertility Survey. The method works well, except in its application to the 1975 Census where the evidence suggests considerable misreporting of age at first marriage because of the way the question was asked and coded. Results confirm that ever-married fertility fell substantially in Korea between 1961 and 1980, with a temporary resurgence in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Ever-married fertility rose at younger ages and shorter durations and fell at older ages and longer durations. Ever-married fertility differentials by urban-rural residence and by education were usually in the expected direction, with urban fertility generally lower than rural fertility and the fertility of those with more education usually lower than the fertility of those with less education. Differential ever-married fertility by urban-rural residence and education declined over the estimation period.     

National indicators for health for all

This paper examines available international data relevant to the World Health Organization model of health status. It explores the possibility of constructing useful measures of health status, health policy, social and economic status, and provision of health care based on these data. A five-factor model is developed and tested empirically using World Bank statistical data from 123 countries. Two factors representing dimensions of country affluence and population density are found to explain 78 percent of the variations in the health status indicator. The countries with health status indicator levels worse than those predicted by the model are predominantly third-world countries; a majority are African. Countries with health status indicator levels better than predicted are mainly in Asia, Latin America, and Europe. Some generally accepted causal relationships were not supported by the findings in this analysis.     

Historical epidemiology of smallpox in Åland,Finland: 1751–1890

We analyze a 140-year series of smallpox deaths in the Åland Islands, Finland. Vaccination, introduced in 1805, dramatically reduced the annual number of smallpox deaths. It also influenced the age distribution of smallpox deaths, changing smallpox from a childhood disease before 1805 to one which affected both adults and children after 1805. This appears to be due to the fact that Ålanders were usually vaccinated only once during childhood and often lost their immunity during adulthood. Spectral analysis of the prevaccination time series of smallpox deaths demonstrates a strong seven-year periodicity, reflecting the amount of time necessary to build up a cohort of nonimmune individuals. After the introduction of vaccination, the periodicity changes to eight years. The probability that a parish in Åland was affected by a smallpox epidemic is shown to be highly correlated with migration patterns and parish population sizes.