Preface

Sociological Forum -     

Student Debates in Policy Courses

This article examines the use of student debates to promote substantive knowledge and policy practice skills. The authors present a pedagogical rationale for student debates, describe the incorporation of debates into a child welfare policy course, and report the results of an evaluation. Students demonstrated significantly greater increases in self-reported knowledge of course topics when they participated in debates than when they observed debates or learned through standard forms of instruction. The majority of students reported satisfaction with the debates, reported that participation improved their policy skills and knowledge, and rated the educational value of debates higher than traditional assignments.     

Loss prediction based on run-off triangles

Loss reserving is an important subject of actuarial mathematics. It aims at the prediction of future losses caused by claims which have incurred in the past but have not yet been closed. The problem of predicting such losses is particularly important in liability insurance. More generally, it is most relevant with respect to the new regulatory requirements for insurance companies operating in the European Union, which are known as Solvency II.     

Demographic change, endogenous labor supply and the political feasibility of pension reform

Options for reforming unfunded public pension schemes that are now being discussed all share the feature that the burden induced by demographic change would be shifted towards presently living and away from unborn generations. Existing models of the political economy of pension reform can not explain why such reform options are being discussed at all. We present an alternative model in which the possibility of evasion of workers from payment of social security taxes is taken into account by modelling a labor supply function. It turns out that the burden of demographic change may fall completely or at least predominantly on the pensioners. Thus this type of model can much better explain recent trends in legislature on unfunded public pension systems in industrial democracies. Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 20 December 1999     

Children's and Adolescents' Decisions about Sharing Money with Others

Two hundred and ninety-four participants aged between 7 and 17 years of age were asked to share out money between themselves and another, imaginary group. Individual responses were recorded as well as responses after discussion in a group with two other participants. The distribution task took place in two different experimental conditions that either gave participants a free choice about how much to offer to the other group or involved making a strategic offer to avoid the other group rejecting an offer and losing all the money. From 10 years of age onwards, when allowed to choose freely how much to share, boys made progressively less generous offers than girls whereas girls' offers remained the same with age. However, when inter-group strategic constraints were present, there were few gender differences from 10 years of age. The order in which games were presented was a powerful influence on the offers that participants made.     

Maximum-likelihood and marginal-sum estimation in some particular collective models

In the present paper we consider collective models in risk theory and their thinning and decomposition. We give three applications to reinsurance, multiplicative tariffs, and loss reserving. For each of these applications we show how maximum-likelihood and marginal-sum estimation can be used to estimate the parameters.     

Mental Models of Flash Floods and Landslides

Perceptions of flash floods and landslides were analyzed in four communities of the Bavarian Alps using the mental model approach. Thirty-eight qualitative interviews, two telephone surveys with 600 respondents, and two onsite interviews (74/95 respondents) were conducted. Mental models concerning flash floods are much better developed than those for landslides because the key physical processes for flash floods are easier for the general public to recognize and understand. Mental models are influenced by the local conditions. People who have a better knowledge about the hazards are those who use many different sources to inform themselves, express fear about natural hazards, or have previous experience with hazards. Conclusions for how to improve information for the general public are discussed.     

Analysis of short-term systematic measurement error variance for the difference of paired data without repetition of measurement

The variance of short-term systematic measurement errors for the difference of paired data is estimated. The difference of paired data is determined by subtracting the measurement results of two methods, which measure the same item only once without measurement repetition. The unbiased estimators for short-term systematic measurement error variances based on the one-way random effects model are not fit for practical purpose because they can be negative. The estimators, which are derived for balanced data as well as for unbalanced data, are always positive but biased. The basis of these positive estimators is the one-way random effects model. The biases, variances, and the mean squared errors of the positive estimators are derived as well as their estimators. The positive estimators are fit for practical purpose.     

Manipulation via Endowments in Exchange Markets with Indivisible Goods

We consider exchange markets with heterogeneous indivisible goods. We are interested in exchange rules that are efficient and immune to manipulations via endowments (either with respect to hiding or destroying part of the endowment or transferring part of the endowment to another trader). We consider three manipulability axioms: hiding-proofness, destruction-proofness, and transfer-proofness. We prove that no rule satisfying efficiency and hiding-proofness (which together imply individual rationality) exists. For two agents with separable and responsive preferences, we show that efficient, individually rational, and destruction-proof rules exist. However, for some profiles of separable preferences, no rule is efficient, individually rational, and destruction-proof. In the case of transfer-proofness the compatibility with efficiency and individual rationality for the two-agent case extends to the unrestricted domain. If there are more than two agents, for some profiles of separable preferences, no rule is efficient, individually rational, and transfer-proof.     

Consumer Socialisation and Value Orientations among Estonian and Chinese Young People

This paper asks if Estonian and Chinese tweens’ access to pocket money influences their brand valuation, as well as value orientations in the context of perceived peer popularity and personal well‐being. Surveys conducted in autumns 2006 (China n = 188) and 2007 (Estonia n = 111) show an inherent cultural resistance among tweens in both countries towards using material standards to evaluate people and social relations. Access to own money correlates strongly with more consumerist values and strengthen the initial indications that individualist and expressive values are more highly esteemed by Estonian tweens, while social inclusion and approval are more vital for the Chinese.