Estimating heritability for cause specific mortality based on twin studies

There has been considerable interest in studying the magnitude and type of inheritance of specific diseases. This is typically derived from family or twin studies, where the basic idea is to compare the correlation for different pairs that share different amount of genes. We here consider data from the Danish twin registry and discuss how to define heritability for cancer occurrence. The key point is that this should be done taking censoring as well as competing risks due to e.g.  death into account. We describe the dependence between twins on the probability scale and show that various models can be used to achieve sensible estimates of the dependence within monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs that may vary over time. These dependence measures can subsequently be decomposed into a genetic and environmental component using random effects models. We here present several novel models that in essence describe the association in terms of the concordance probability, i.e., the probability that both twins experience the event, in the competing risks setting. We also discuss how to deal with the left truncation present in the Nordic twin registries, due to sampling only of twin pairs where both twins are alive at the initiation of the registries.     

Global employment and decent jobs, 2010–2030: The forces of demography and automation

Globally, an estimated 734 million jobs will be required between 2010 and 2030 to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts, account for plausible changes in labour force participation rates, and achieve target unemployment rates of at or below 4 per cent for adults and at or below 8 per cent for youth. The facts that most new jobs will be required in countries where “decent” jobs are less prevalent and workers in many occupations are increasingly subject to risks of automation further compound the challenge of job creation, which is already quite sizable in historical perspective. Failure to create the jobs that are needed through 2030 would put currently operative social security systems under pressure and undermine efforts to guarantee the national social protection floors enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).     

Organisation als Freiraum und Zwang

Organisations are marked by contradictions: change and continuity, health and sickness, men and women, creativity and linearity, past and future and freedom and restriction are only a few poles in which these contradictions are made visible. Organisations try to give answers to these contradictions and give space for both: freedom and restriction. Here, systems and individuals are related in mutual challenge and in permanent negotiation. It is therefore important for management and employee to reflect on the preconditions for the chance of freedom and restriction. The organisation has to provide the possibility to legitimize the ‘Management of Paradox’ in order to generate answers which are necessary to guide change and contradiction.     

Examining the Global North Migration Policies: A “Push Out – Push Back” Approach to Forced Migration

In this paper we focus on adapting the concept of push – pull factors to forced migration by proposing a “push out – push back” approach that underlines two most crucial elements of forced migrants’ experience. On the one hand, it stresses the reasons for leaving countries of origin or of temporary refuge that are not dependant on the will of people who flew those places, thus the “push out” factors. On the other hand, it represents the refusal of the countries of the Global North to accept forced migrants and their use of various practices, amounting to “push back” factors, to prevent them from entering or leaving their territory if they manage to reach it. These factors can be divided into three groups: passive, active, and symbolic.     

Interdisciplinarity and innovation dynamics. On convergence of research, technology, economy, and society

In the age of globalization, economic growth and the welfare of nations decisively depend on basic innovations. Therefore, education and knowledge is an important advantage of competition in highly developed countries with high standards of salaries, but raw material shortage. In the twenty-first century, innovations will arise from problem-oriented research, crossing over traditional faculties and disciplines. Therefore, we need platforms of interdisciplinary dialogue to choose transdisciplinary problems (e.g., environment, energy, information, health, welfare) and to cluster new portfolios of technologies. The clusters of research during the excellence initiative at German universities are examples of converging sciences. The integration of natural and engineering sciences as well as medicine can only be realized if the research training programs (e.g., graduate schools) generate a considerable added value in terms of multidisciplinary experience, international networking, scientific and entrepreneurial know-how, and personality development. The Carl von Linde-Academy is presented as an example of an interdisciplinary center of research and teaching at the Technical University of Munich.     

Prediction in the linear model under a linear constraint

In this paper we determine the Gauss–Markov predictor of the nonobservable part of a random vector satisfying the linear model under a linear constraint.     

生命周期不同阶段的幽默理解与加工机制

以往学者们大多将幽默作为一种语言现象进行研究,几乎没人关注幽默的神经心理加工过程。现代脑成像技术给学者们提供了一种更为客观的方式,有助于揭开幽默大脑加工的神秘面纱。尽管幽默的认知神经心理机制的研究已经能够帮助人们建立起对人类幽默理解的系统认识,但目前还有很多可扩展的方向：首先,目前的绝大多数研究都以成年人为研究对象,研究的外部效度存在问题,仅有个别研究着眼于儿童和老年人的幽默理解认知机制,应该开展针对其他年龄段的研究,从人类生命周期的角度整合不同年龄段的幽默理解神经心理加工机制发展变化的特点。其次,应着重结合汉语的特点和我国社会发展的特点进行研究,形成中国特色的汉语幽默认知加工理论。