A generalized polynomial-logistic distribution and applications

ABSTRACT

In the present article we introduce a new class of distributions which nests the classical Logistic distribution and offers additional flexibility when data fitting is chased. We provide exact expressions for its moments and absolute moments, investigate its ageing properties, and discuss several techniques for estimating its parameters. Finally, we use the new family to build a parametric model that describes accurately the Euro/CAD exchange reference rates for the period 1/4/1999–12/31/2011.     

Does the theory of planned behavior elements mediate the relationship between perceived constraints and intention to participate in physical activities? A study among older individuals

This study aimed to investigate the degree to which the elements of the theory of planned behavior mediate the relationship between constraints and intention to continuing participation in physical activities. The sample of the study consisted of 119 (N = 119) older individuals who participated in organized physical activity programs. The results indicated that attitudes and perceived behavioral control were negatively correlated with constraints, whereas the subjective norm variable had no relationship with them. In terms of the mediation role of the elements of the theory of planned behavior, the results indicated that both attitudes and perceived behavioral control partially mediated the relationship between constraints and intention, with the perceived behavioral control variable being the strongest mediator. These findings suggest that the theory of planned behavior elements mediate the constraints–intention relationship and determine, in a large degree, the older individuals’ intention to continuing taking part in physical activities.     

The size of under-reporting bias in recorded transnational terrorist activity

Summary.  We address an apparent gap in the applied terrorism literature providing an estimate for the size of under-reporting in transnational terrorist activity. The method that is suggested is computationally straightforward and takes into account the stochastic interactions between terrorism, polity and press freedom in a manner that utilizes their sample properties. The outcome from the application of this metric is that underreporting bias is indeed present and quite sizable.     

Truncated Poisson Regression for Time Series of Counts

We consider partial likelihood analysis of a truncated Poisson regression model for time series of counts. We focus our attention on the study of asymptotic theory for the maximum partial likelihood estimator of a vector of regression parameters. Simulations and data analysis integrate the presentation.     

Semiparametric Inference for the Two‐way Layout Under Order Restrictions

There are many situations in which a researcher would like to analyse data from a two‐way layout. Often, the assumptions of linearity and normality may not hold. To address such situations, we introduce a semiparametric model. The model extends the well‐known density ratio model from the one‐way to the two‐way layout and provides a useful framework for semiparametric analysis of variance type problems under order restrictions. In particular, the likelihood ratio order is emphasized. The model enables highly efficient inference without resorting to fully parametric assumptions or the use of transformations. Estimation and testing procedures under order restrictions are developed and investigated in detail. It is shown that the model is robust to misspecification, and several simulations suggest that it performs well in practice. The methodology is illustrated using two data examples; in the first, the response variable is discrete, whereas in the second, it is continuous.     

“A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts?

The weather forecast says that there is a "30% chance of rain," and we think we understand what it means. This quantitative statement is assumed to be unambiguous and to convey more information than does a qualitative statement like "It might rain tomorrow." Because the forecast is expressed as a single-event probability, however, it does not specify the class of events it refers to. Therefore, even numerical probabilities can be interpreted by members of the public in multiple, mutually contradictory ways. To find out whether the same statement about rain probability evokes various interpretations, we randomly surveyed pedestrians in five metropolises located in countries that have had different degrees of exposure to probabilistic forecasts--Amsterdam, Athens, Berlin, Milan, and New York. They were asked what a "30% chance of rain tomorrow" means both in a multiple-choice and a free-response format. Only in New York did a majority of them supply the standard meteorological interpretation, namely, that when the weather conditions are like today, in 3 out of 10 cases there will be (at least a trace of) rain the next day. In each of the European cities, this alternative was judged as the least appropriate. The preferred interpretation in Europe was that it will rain tomorrow "30% of the time," followed by "in 30% of the area." To improve risk communication with the public, experts need to specify the reference class, that is, the class of events to which a single-event probability refers.     

Discrimination among bivariate beta-generated distributions

Some properties of the general families of bivariate distributions generated by beta dependent random variables are derived and discussed here. Some classic measures of dependence and information are derived, and their behaviours and properties are discussed as well. Finally, a discrimination procedure within this general family of bivariate distributions is proposed based on Shannon entropy. A real-life example is presented to illustrate the model as well as the inferential results developed here.     

Shedding Some (More) Light in Bourdieu's Habitus and Doxa: A Socio-Phenomenological Approach

In this paper, I attempt to shed more light in Bourdieu's habitus and doxa, by drawing on phenomenological and Bourdieusian-based literature, social theory and some findings from sociological research. Despite the fact that there is a vast work concerning the examination of these two concepts, there are still some misunderstandings about them. For that reason, I have tried to draw a clearer picture of habitus, by linking it with phenomenological “being-in-the-world” and describing its elements. As for doxa, I discuss its conceptual relation with habitus and phenomenology's natural attitude. Also, attention is given to some aspects of both habitus and doxa, which have not addressed in detailed fashion yet, but they are nevertheless theoretically useful for empirical qualitative research.