Demographics: people and markets

The basics of demography are now basic to us business as well. Demographics combine demographic data with socioeconomic and geographic factors to help business and other managers know the market for their goods and services. This pamphlet explains market, product, and site analyses, discusses data sources and resources, and includes case studies involving major corporations. Post-war population trends have had an enormous impact on consumer and labor markets, bringing home to business the importance of taking advantage of demographic shifts. Advances in computerized access to data describing changes and increased consciousness of their economic significance has spurred the application of demographic knowledge by managers and the growth of the demographics information industry. The pamphlet describes the resources and methods of demographics including the creation and use of demographic data products.     

The effects of the age and structure of population on family change]

The age structure of a population is one basic factor of population research. It is not only affected by birth, death, immigration, and marriage, but it also reflected in changes of family size. The article analyzed it from two aspects: (1) the age structure of population acts on the size and structure of the family. The younger the age structure, the larger the family size. Otherwise, it is the opposite. According to the 1982 census, 35.4% of the population was 0-14 years in rural areas, and average family size was 4.6; but in urban areas 26.0% of the population was 0-14 years and family size was 3.9. The family was characterized as a nuclear family as industrialization in economic development increased and the population aged. In the 1982 census, 64.7% were nuclear family and 6% were aging population in China. Three- generation families (or more) have decreased dramatically. The change of family size and structure is affected by change of internal family age structure. The younger population (0-14 years) is dependent and 90% live with their parents. The adult population (15-59) years are more affected by marriage, birth and social economic action. Families are established in this age period and give much more effect to fertility. The aging population (over 60) years is facing changes. They appear to be a "Defect" family because the wife or husband has passed away. They change from independent to dependent. 78.3% population over 60 years were dependent on children or social welfare, only 21.7% were independent according to the survey in Beijing Changping County.     

An analytical paradigm for the analysis of national inmigration patterns

This study proposes and demonstrates an analytic paradigm based upon a substantive categorization of a set of inmigration correlates. It exemplifies the notion of categorizing, analyzing according to the categorization, and subsequently discussing the phenomenon in more depth. The paradigm has 2 steps: 1) the variables are categorized according to the cells resulting from the intersection of a preferably small number of nominal dimensions and 2) the data are analyzed, directly anchored in the prior categorization. The data used is Israel's 1983 census macro-data gathered from the Central Bureau of Statistics for the Israeli towns with populations of at least 5000. The authors defined 6 variables as push variables and 4 as pull variables. Results of the regression employing push variables show that 4 variables accounting for 72% of inmigration were found to significantly predict inmigration: 1) unemployment, 2) percentage of Asians-Africans, 3) town size, and 4) religiosity. Within the pull classification, the regression analysis reveals that 2 of the 4 variables explain 31% of the inmigration variance: 1) educational level (26%) and 2) income (5%). The 1st regression analysis on the 2nd dimension shows that the percentage of Asian-African origin and town population size account for 32% of the immigration variance. In the 2nd regression analysis, unemployment explains 48% of the inmigration variance and educational level explains 8%. In the 3rd regression, only home crowding explains a significant amount of the immigration variance (19%). Results of a multiple regression analysis show that unemployment level, percentage of Asian-Africans, population size, and level of religiosity account for 72% of the inmigration variance. Thus, the characteristics of a town inmigrating (push variables) are demographic, economic, and social. However, the attractive features of a town are only economic. Among all economic factors, unemployment is primary. In addition, not only are both percentage of Asians-Africans and population size significantly deflective of inmigration, but each also plays a separate and independent role.     

From making to being the excuse: An analysis of deception and verbal/nonverbal issues

Excuse-making is defined, and the issues of deception and verbal/nonverbal presentations are discussed in regard to the excuse process. Subsequently, the deception and verbal/nonverbal issues are described in greater detail in the context of whether the excuse occurs temporally after a negative outcome (retrospective), before a negative outcome (anticipatory), or as part of the characterological makeup of the person (incorporated). Going from retrospective to anticipatory to incorporated excuses, it is concluded that the role of nonverbal factors increases. Likewise, in the progression from making to being the excuse, it is argued that self- and other-deception also become more pervasive.     

The developmental implications of migration from and between small island nations

This article discusses the role of migration in relieving population pressures, thus making continuing development possible, using small nations in the Caribbean and the South Pacific as examples. The Caribbean islands and many Pacific islands have used out-migration to ease population pressures in this century. Surplus labor has been emerging in various Caribbean nations, independent of the international marketing problems of plantation agriculture. Rural populations alienated from plantations have had to make do on questionable and/or remote land. Population surpluses appear to originate in rural areas, but little evidence exists to suggest that those surpluses are the basis for the emigration patterns of the Caribbean islands. Emigration does not solve population problems because when ambitious, skilled workers leave their country, their actions have little to do with the existence of domestic surplus labor and their leaving may do little to facilitate domestic labor absorption. Thus, if mini-states wish to sustain their hopes of economic expansion, they must find the means to employ their surplus labor. Since mainly skilled migrants leave, their going may actually slow development and retard opportunities for labor absorption. Population movements internal to the Caribbean region may further complicate surplus labor and/or population problems. If protective entry requirements impede normal inter-island relations, they may interfere with developmental processes. In general, migration is not a feasible strategy for population control for small island nations. While temporary migration has a more positive impact than other forms of migration, problems do exist. For example, temporary migration 1) can impose significant economic costs on the source-country, and 2) may result in the source country being unable to capitalize on its initial investment in training and education of temporary migrants. In conclusion, import substitution through cooperation between small island nations, production for export where feasible, and more attention to more sophisticated international service linkages hold a better prospect for material progress than relying on the export of surplus populations.     

INTERVIEWING OLDER ADULTS: MODE COMPARISON USING DATA FROM A FACE-TO-FACE SURVEY AND A TELEPHONE RESURVEY

A face-to-face survey conducted in 1984 with a sample of 1491residents of the Detroit metropolitan area (including an oversampleof older adults) and a reinterview of a random subset of theserespondents by telephone were used to compare the two modesof data collection across two age levels. Except for a tendencytoward a disproportionately large number of DK answers and adisproportionately large amount of interviewer assistance onthe telephone, respondents 60 years of age and older did notexhibit larger mode differences than did respondents under 60.For both age groups, response distributions were rather similar,suggesting little effect of mode. Likewise, response style differedlittle by mode, while a higher proportion of missing data (i.e.,"I don't know" answers) was given on the telephone. The responserate for the telephone reinterview was 90%, somewhat lower forolder than younger persons. The findings support the feasibilityof using the telephone for reinterviewing older adults.     

On estimating census undercount in small areas

"Net undercount rates in the U.S. decennial census have been steadily declining over the last several censuses. Differential undercounts among race groups and geographic areas, however, appear to persist. In the following, we examine and compare several methodologies for providing small area estimates of census coverage by constructing artificial populations. Measures of performance are also introduced to assess the various small area estimates. Synthetic estimation in combination with regression modelling provide the best results over the methods considered. Sampling error effects are also simulated. The results form the basis for determining coverage evaluation survey small area estimates of the 1900 decennial census."     

Catholicism and the Philippine population problem

"The Philippines has two characteristics which differentiate if from other countries in Southeast Asia. It is the only predominantly Christian country in the region and it has one of the highest rates of population growth. Non-Catholic Christians make up only about 9 per cent of the population compared with around 82 per cent for Roman Catholics. Given the Catholic Church objections to both contraception and abortion, it is not illogical to hypothesize a relation between the religious composition of the population and its rate of population growth."     

Policies and strategies for integrating women in agriculture and rural development

Continued economic stagnation, civil unrest, rural-urban migration, and a series of natural disasters have impeded efforts in the Sudan to integrate women into the development process. Although the Four-Year (1988-1989 to 1991-92) Salvation, Recovery, and Development Programs Plan does not explicitly addresses women's issues, its emphasis on food security, appropriate technology for the agricultural sector, small-scale industries and handicrafts, balanced regional development, and the needs of the poorest 20% of the population guarantees that women will be major recipients. There remains a need, however, to increase women's participation in the development planning process and to base projects on reliable data on women's economic activities. More successful in defining women's needs have been community development projects--Western Savannah Development Corporation, Blue Nile Integrated Rural Development Project, Nuba Mountain Project, and Jebel Marra Rural Development Project--that combine income generation, social welfare, and agricultural research. It is recommended that all such large integrated rural development or agricultural projects allot funds specifically for women's activities and ensure coordination with women's organizations to avoid duplication and identify areas of greatest need. Also urged is the development of appropriate technologies that will alleviate women's double burden of poverty and household chores and address the inequitable distribution of income. Establishment of a women's bureau for women's affairs and development within the National Planning Department would facilitate project formulation and evaluation. In need of change if women in development projects in the Sudan are to be successful are laws that limit female land ownership and practices that deny women loans and credit.