The estimation of Unwanted Fertility

The estimation of unwanted fertility is a major objective of demographic surveys, including DHS surveys conducted in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Levels and trends in unwanted fertility are important input to the formulation of population policy and the evaluation of family planning programs. Yet existing methods for estimating unwanted fertility are known to be defective, among other reasons because they rely on subjective data whose validity and reliability are questionable. In this article, we propose a new estimator of unwanted fertility-the "aggregate prospective estimator"--so named because it depends on the stated preference for another child at the time of the survey, the fertility-desires item consistently shown to possess the highest validity and reliability. Under reasonable assumptions, the aggregate prospective estimator produces less biased estimates of unwanted fertility than the most widely used existing methods. The new estimator has the limitation of generating only aggregate-level estimates, but such estimates are the primary data for policy formulation and program evaluation. The new estimator is presented in this article, along with an evaluation of its underlying assumptions and its sensitivity to several sources of error. In an illustrative application to recent DHS data from six countries, the new estimator yields substantially higher estimates of unwanted fertility than existing methods in all six countries.     

美国撤军伊拉克后伊朗和沙特的抗衡

美国从伊拉克撤军后对伊拉克安全稳定的最大挑战是地区势力的角逐,尤其是伊朗和沙特在该地区的竞争将对伊拉克的安全和稳定带来重要影响。沙特担心伊朗将利用其在伊拉克的影响来使其在美国撤军后在地区称霸。本文讨论伊朗和沙特之间的竞争以及该竞争对伊拉克未来稳定的影响。     

美国撤军伊拉克后伊朗和沙特的抗衡

美国从伊拉克撤军后对伊拉克安全稳定的最大挑战是地区势力的角逐,尤其是伊朗和沙特在该地区的竞争将对伊拉克的安全和稳定带来重要影响。沙特担心伊朗将利用其在伊拉克的影响来使其在美国撤军后在地区称霸。本文讨论伊朗和沙特之间的竞争以及该竞争对伊拉克未来稳定的影响。     

Risk Communication for Empowerment: Interventions in a Rohingya Refugee Settlement

There are many reasons that people, when warned of an impending extreme event, do not take proactive, self-defensive action. We focus on one possible reason, which is that, sometimes, people lack a sense of agency or even experience disempowerment, which can lead to passivity. This article takes up one situation where the possibility of disempowerment is salient, that of Rohingya refugees who were evicted from their homes in Myanmar and forced to cross the border into neighboring Bangladesh. In their plight, we see the twin elements of marginalization and displacement acting jointly to produce heightened vulnerability to the risks from extreme weather. Building on a relational model of risk communication, a consortium of researchers and practitioners designed a risk communication training workshop that featured elements of empowerment-based practice. The program was implemented in two refugee camps. Evaluation suggests that the workshop may have had an appreciable effect in increasing participants' sense of agency and hope, while decreasing their level of fatalism. The outcomes were considerably more positive for female than male participants, which has important implications. This work underscores the potential for participatory modes of risk communication to empower the more marginalized, and thus more vulnerable, members of society.     

La Familia - How Trust Towards Family Decreases Female Labor Force Participation

This paper investigates whether comprehensive trust towards immediate family members leads to a decrease in female labor force participation in Sub Saharan African countries. Using three recent waves, third, fourth and fifth rounds of the Afrobarometer survey data allows us to capture the willingness to participate in the labor market as well as the level of trust individuals have towards their family members. We find that a high amount of trust significantly decreases labor force participation vary in range from minimum of 7 percent to 13 percent at maximum in our probit estimations. Moreover, the statistical as well as economic effects are significantly stronger for females than the effect for males. Our main contribution to the emerging economies literature in informal institutions is that we are able to show how different cultural traits such as family ties lead to different choices in terms of participation in the labor market.     

Everyday life of persons with intellectual disability living in residential settings: a systematic review of qualitative studies

This article presents a systematic review of studies published between November 2010 and November 2014 about the everyday life of adults with intellectual disability as viewed from their own perspective. Everyday life refers to an interdisciplinary concept including approaches attentive to the mundane and to ordinary routines of social relations and practices. Twelve studies met the inclusion criteria. The review was carried out as an interpretive synthesis. Findings from the included studies revealed neglect of participation regarding the wishes, self-determination, choice and control of persons with intellectual disability in their everyday lives. This neglect demonstrates the limitations persons with intellectual disability face as agents and adult citizens in their everyday life, and shows violation of fundamental human rights.     

Biodiversity conservation in the Brazilian social sciences: an analysis of epistemological paths and conditions of possibility

This article aims to present the analysis of a carefully chosen literature in social sciences on the subject of biodiversity conservation. The purpose was to recognize some of the methods and epistemological conceptions which underlie the arguments published in the main academic journals of Sociology, Anthropology and Political Sciences. The analysis is based on a confrontation of Foucault’s concept of “conditions of possibility” with the discursive practices present in the survey. This exercise enabled us to demonstrate that even though we specifically targeted the social sciences, it is possible to recognize the presence of different conditions possibility that are not necessarily compatible and can be critic of each other. These criticisms arise in a context in which the objectivist view was widely accessed in order to corroborate restrictive and punitive actions on biodiversity conservation. This mapping can thus contribute to problematize the dialogue between disciplines in a scenario where each science has a particular political weight.     

Sectarian terrorism in Pakistan: Causes,impact and remedies

Although terrorism has been widely studied for its impact and potential determinants in Pakistan, the answer to the policy question regarding the role of external factors in influencing specifically the sectarian terrorism is not empirically well researched. The study, particularly, analyses the role of Pakistan’s regional foreign policy towards neighbouring India, Afghan wars, and the relations with bi-polar fundamental Muslim Block, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Iran, on sectarian (religious) terrorist incidents for the period 1973–2017. The findings suggest that economic cooperation with India which drive peace-making relations increases the sectarian terrorism. Both the bilateral loans disbursed by the KSA and trade relations with Iran, significantly increase the chances of sectarian terrorism in Pakistan by activating extremist (proxy) groups. However, the Afghan Wars that call for Pak-US strategic partnership helps Pakistan to control the religious terrorism.