Simple detection of outlying short time series

Sets of relatively short time series arise in many situations. One aspect of their analysis may be the detection of outlying series. We examine the performance of standard normal outlier tests applied to the means, or to simple functions of the means, of AR(1) series, not necessarily of equal lengths. Although unequal lengths of series implies that the means have unequal variances, that are only known approximately, it is shown that nominal significance levels hold good under most circumstances. Thus a standard outlier test can usefully be applied, avoiding the complication of estimating the time series' parameters. The test's power is affected by unequal lengths, being higher when the slippage occurs in one of the longer series     

反思性实践：校长专业成长的重要途径

校长专业成长已经成为教育领域中人们关注的焦点。反思性实践是校长专业成长的重要途径。批判反思又是反思性实践的重要策略。本文内容包括反思性实践的概念、策略以及批判反思与校长专业成长的关系。     

依法治国视野下政协“参政”问题刍议

政协作为多党合作和政治协商的组织形式和组织机构，“参政”是其核心职能：目前在参政中出现的种种问题，其症结还是在于法治建设的缺失和滞后。解决这一问题，要进一步探索和提升多党合作与政治协商的制度化、规范化、程序化水平，不断准备实践条件，将政策性制度逐步上升为法律性制度，最终步入法治的轨道。     

Inference for the measurement of poverty in the presence of a stochastic weighting variable

Empirical applications of poverty measurement often have to deal with a stochastic weighting variable such as household size. Within the framework of a bivariate distribution function defined over income and weight, I derive the limiting distributions of the decomposable poverty measures and of the ordinates of stochastic dominance curves. The poverty line is allowed to depend on the income distribution. It is shown how the results can be used to test hypotheses concerning changes in poverty. The inference procedures are briefly illustrated using Belgian data. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Randomized response techniques for complex survey designs

Singh et al. ([13]) pointed out that the Randomized response (RR) technique proposed by Moors ([9]) is not desirable because it fails to protect the confidentiality of the respondents and they provided two alternative strategies free from the above drawback but limited to SRSWOR sampling only. In this paper, generalization of one of the strategies is provided for complex survey designs, wider class of estimators and for quantitative characteristics. Relative efficiency of the modified strategy is tested through empirical investigations. An erratum to this article is available at .     

谈汉语诗词中的叠词英译

叠词是汉语的一种修辞格,能带来特殊的语言表达效果。叠词形式多样、功能不一,在传达情感、强调意义和创造意境等方面颇具功效,其使用可促进语言形式和内容达到艺术统一。在结构工整严谨、对字词精炼传神、美学效果要求较高的汉语古诗词中,叠词起着不可忽视的作用。聚焦汉语古诗词中叠词的常见类型、特殊功能,关注其英译的策略原则是必要的。     

进攻——俄罗斯军事思想的主要特色

进攻与防御是军事上的两个基本方面,是矛盾的对立统一体.通常,弱者防御,强者进攻.但是,俄罗斯在自己并非始终强大的情况下,把进攻作为主要军事思想,获得最大利益,则是例外.沙皇时期军事进攻是侵略扩张和寻找出海口的需要,苏联时期军事进攻是巩固国防和追求霸权主义的需要,当代俄罗斯军事进攻则是实现强国梦和重登国际舞台的需要.     

国籍法的现代发展趋势

20世纪以来,随着主权国家的大量兴起及跨国人员流动的愈趋频繁和复杂,国籍法的发展呈现出了以下四方面的态势:国内立法日益向单行法方向转化;国际渊源不断丰富,相关国际条约层出不穷;内容日趋先进,平等、非歧视观念逐渐得到贯彻;趋同化倾向正在不断加强。