A Bayesian analysis of directional data using the projected normal distribution

This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of the projected normal distribution, which is a flexible and useful distribution for the analysis of directional data. We obtain samples from the posterior distribution using the Gibbs sampler after the introduction of suitably chosen latent variables. The procedure is illustrated using simulated data as well as a real data set previously analysed in the literature.     

Programa shortstop: a culturally focused juvenile intervention for Hispanic youth

Culturally sensitive juvenile delinquency and substance abuse interventions are relatively limited and unavailable to many first-time Hispanic juvenile offenders. The purpose of this study was to test the effectiveness of a culturally focused juvenile and substance abuse intervention program for first time Hispanic youth offenders. The intent of the program was to decrease juvenile recidivism and increase substance abuse resistance. Programa Shortstop is a family based intervention designed for Hispanic youth ages 9-17. The intervention was delivered to 352 youth and at least one parent/caregiver over the 5-year study period. For intervention youth, the results of the recidivism study (n = 321) indicated that 89% of youth participating in Programa Shortstop between 1995 to 1997 were not rearrested within one year of completing Programa Shortstop. Additionally, statistical paired t-test analysis found that the intervention model had a positive effect on legal knowledge and school related factors associated with substance abuse and delinquency. Parent participants demonstrated significant increases in knowledge related to substance abuse and the legal system.     

Temporal disaggregation and restricted forecasting of multiple population time series

This article presents some applications of time-series procedures to solve two typical problems that arise when analyzing demographic information in developing countries: (1) unavailability of annual time series of population growth rates (PGRs) and their corresponding population time series and (2) inappropriately defined population growth goals in official population programs. These problems are considered as situations that require combining information of population time series. Firstly, we suggest the use of temporal disaggregation techniques to combine census data with vital statistics information in order to estimate annual PGRs. Secondly, we apply multiple restricted forecasting to combine the official targets on future PGRs with the disaggregated series. Then, we propose a mechanism to evaluate the compatibility of the demographic goals with the annual data. We apply the aforementioned procedures to data of the Mexico City Metropolitan Zone divided by concentric rings and conclude that the targets established in the official program are not feasible. Hence, we derive future PGRs that are both in line with the official targets and with the historical demographic behavior. We conclude that growth population programs should be based on this kind of analysis to be supported empirically. So, through specialized multivariate time-series techniques, we propose to obtain first an optimal estimate of a disaggregate vector of population time series and then, produce restricted forecasts in agreement with some data-based population policies here derived.     

Urban risks due to climate change in the Andean municipality of Pasto,Colombia: A Bayesian network approach

The current trends of climate change will increase people's exposure to urban risks related to events such as landslides, floods, forest fires, food production, health, and water availability, which are stochastic and very localized in nature. This research uses a Bayesian network (BN) approach to analyze the intensity of such urban risks for the Andean municipality of Pasto, Colombia, under climate change scenarios. The stochastic BN model is linked to correlational models and local scenarios of representative concentration trajectories (RCP) to project the possible risks to which the municipality of Pasto will be exposed in the future. The results show significant risks in crop yields, food security, water availability and disaster risks, but no significant risks on the incidence of acute diarrheal diseases (ADD) and acute respiratory infections (ARI), whereas positive outcomes are likely to occur in livestock production, influenced by population growth. The advantage of the BN approach is the possibility of updating beliefs in the probabilities of occurrence of events, especially in developing, intermediate cities with information-limited contexts.     

First Order Dominance Techniques and Multidimensional Poverty Indices: An Empirical Comparison of Different Approaches

In this empirically driven paper we compare the performance of two techniques in the literature of poverty measurement with ordinal data: multidimensional poverty indices and first order dominance techniques (FOD). Combining multiple scenario simulated data with observed data from 48 Demographic and Health Surveys around the developing world, our empirical findings suggest that the FOD approach can be implemented as a useful robustness check for ordinal poverty indices like the multidimensional poverty index (MPI; the United Nations Development Program’s flagship poverty indicator) to distinguish between those country comparisons that are sensitive to alternative specifications of basic measurement assumptions and those which are not. To the extent that the FOD approach is able to uncover the socio-economic gradient that exists between countries, it can be proposed as a viable complement to the MPI with the advantage of not having to rely on many of the normatively binding assumptions that underpin the construction of the index.     

“Involved in something (involucrado en algo)”: Denial and stigmatization in Mexico’s “war on drugs”

This article responds empirically to the question posed by Stan Cohen about “why, when faced by knowledge of others’ suffering and pain—particularly the suffering and pain resulting from what are called ‘human rights violations’—does ‘reaction’ so often take the form of denial, avoidance, passivity, indifference, rationalisation or collusion?”. Our context is Mexico's “war on drugs.” Since 2006 this “war” has claimed the lives of around 240,000 Mexican citizens and disappeared around 60,000 others. Perpetrators include organized criminal gangs and state security services. Violence is pervasive and widely reported. Most people are at risk. Our study is based on qualitative interviews and focus groups involving 68 “ordinary Mexicans” living in five different Mexican cities which have varying levels of violence. It investigates participant proximity to the victims and the psychological defense mechanisms they deploy to cope with proximity to the violence. We found that 62 of our participants knew, directly or indirectly, one or more people who had been affected. We also found one dominant rationalization (defense mechanism) for the violence: that the victims were “involved in something” (drugs or organized crime) and therefore “deserved their fate.” This echoes prevailing state discourses about the violence. We argue that the discourse of “involved” is a discourse of denial that plays three prominent roles in a highly violent society in which almost no-one is immune: it masks state violence, stigmatizes the victims, and sanctions bystander passivity. As such, we show how official and individual denial converge, live, and reproduce, and play a powerful role in the perpetuation of violence.     

The Experience of Learning EFT in Spanish-speaking Countries: A Multi-National Replication Study

This study is a multi-national follow-up to the original (Sandberg and Knestel (2011) Journal of Marital and Family Therapy, 37, 393–410) article on the process of learning Emotionally Focused Couples Therapy (EFT). A total of 102 clinicians from nine Spanish-speaking countries (Mexico, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Spain, Colombia, Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, and El Salvador) participated in the study. A comparison of results across the two studies revealed more similarities than differences. However, a few notable differences emerged from responses to qualitative questions, namely a heightened sense of appreciation for and resonance with the focus on core emotion in EFT and less frequent reports of difficulty learning and adapting to the model among Spanish-speaking therapists. These differences were consistent with common cultural values and forms of expression in Latin America and Spain. Results are discussed in terms of training, supervision, and future research as well.     

Are There Gender-based Effects for an Educational Program for Parents of Adolescents With Risk Behaviors?

The goals of this study were to evaluate the gender-based effectiveness of the parental intervention of the Suspertu (“recovery” in English) prevention program for adolescents with risk behaviors in Spain. The sample included 229 parents (105 fathers and 124 mothers). One open-label trial with repeated measures was used. Parents received a family therapy and a group education. The intervention improved parents’ authoritative parenting style, decreasing the degree of parental stress and reducing parent’s psychopathological symptoms and maladjustment. Improvement in both groups (fathers and mothers) was mainly observed from pre- to post-intervention assessment. According to the results, prevention programs for adolescents with risk behaviors may be a suitable context both to teach parents to deal appropriately with their children’s risk behaviors, and to improve parent’s psychological state.     

Information and communication technologies and migrant intimacies: the case of Punjabi youth in Manila

This article examines how South–South migrants use information and communication technologies (ICTs) in negotiating their encounters with traditional cultural imaginaries of intimacy. It focuses on second-generation Punjabi Indian youth in the Philippine capital of Manila. Through an ethnographic approach, it unpacks how these migrants harness technologies to steer through two particular ideals about the end-goal of intimate relationships: the Punjabi notion of arranged marriage and the Filipino notion of love marriage. I characterise how the young Punjabis use ICTs to enact what I call a ‘temporarily resolution’ to their migrant double consciousness about intimacy. I also describe how this temporary resolution continues to be entwined with the wider dynamics of multicultural relations in the Philippines. Ultimately, I aim to better understand the role of ICTs in migrant intimacies, especially within the realities of multiculturalism in a postcolonial city in the Global South.     

The question of the ergonomic use of virtual models

The comfort and functionality between man and his surroundings are the main goals of ergonomics, making it are increasingly in the production process. Many companies have tried Virtual Reality Center (VRC) to assist the analysis and development of ergonomic products. The use of virtual models brings many benefits to the design of products, including greater flexibility, speed and quality, and facilitates the control and reporting, also integrating all stages of the project. There are still some difficulties for the deployment of these resources, like the need for more powerful computers and specialized professionals. Possibly, the VR will be indispensable to the construction in some years, becoming a tool of fundamental importance to the professionals.