Disordered Gambling Prevalence: Methodological Innovations in a General Danish Population Survey

We study Danish adult gambling behavior with an emphasis on discovering patterns relevant to public health forecasting and economic welfare assessment of policy. Methodological innovations include measurement of formative in addition to reflective constructs, estimation of prospective risk for developing gambling disorder rather than risk of being falsely negatively diagnosed, analysis with attention to sample weights and correction for sample selection bias, estimation of the impact of trigger questions on prevalence estimates and sample characteristics, and distinguishing between total and marginal effects of risk-indicating factors. The most significant novelty in our design is that nobody was excluded on the basis of their response to a ‘trigger’ or ‘gateway’ question about previous gambling history. Our sample consists of 8405 adult Danes. We administered the Focal Adult Gambling Screen to all subjects and estimate prospective risk for disordered gambling. We find that 87.6% of the population is indicated for no detectable risk, 5.4% is indicated for early risk, 1.7% is indicated for intermediate risk, 2.6% is indicated for advanced risk, and 2.6% is indicated for disordered gambling. Correcting for sample weights and controlling for sample selection has a significant effect on prevalence rates. Although these estimates of the ‘at risk’ fraction of the population are significantly higher than conventionally reported, we infer a significant decrease in overall prevalence rates of detectable risk with these corrections, since gambling behavior is positively correlated with the decision to participate in gambling surveys. We also find that imposing a threshold gambling history leads to underestimation of the prevalence of gambling problems.     

Bringing Closure to the Plotting Position Controversy

In this article, it is explicitly demonstrated that the probability of non exceedance of the mth value in n order ranked events equals m/(n + 1). Consequently, the plotting position in the extreme value analysis should be considered not as an estimate, but to be equal to m/(n + 1), regardless of the parent distribution and the application. The many other suggested plotting formulas and numerical methods to determine them should thus be abandoned. The article is intended to mark the end of the century-long controversial discussion on the plotting positions.     

The risk of under-insurance in the Finnish statutory pension scheme for self-employed workers: A trajectory analysis

Using unique data on the contribution base, we investigate under-insurance within the statutory pension scheme for self-employed workers in Finland. Under-insurance is defined as the difference between pension-declared income and tax-declared income. The trajectory modelling technique applied has allowed us to estimate the levels of under-insurance for different subgroups and to identify possible explanatory factors. Under-insurance is found to be persistent and large. The analysis reveals six distinctive and homogenous sub-groups of self-employed workers. Close to 84 per cent of these workers pay too little in contributions, often leading to inadequate protection against personal risks. Especially for lower-income self-employed workers, this points to myopic behaviour as regards contributing to the self-employed statutory pension scheme and calls for fine-tuned economic incentives.     

On the Elementary Neural Forms of Micro‐Interactional Rituals: Integrating Autonomic Nervous System Functioning Into Interaction Ritual Theory

Randall Collins's interaction ritual (IR) theory suggests social solidarity as hardwired in the human neurological capacity for rhythmic entrainment. Yet, this article suggests that IR theory may benefit from being tied more firmly to recent neurobiological research, specifically Stephen W. Porges's polyvagal theory that proposes autonomic nervous system functioning as a basis for emotions and social behavior. In this perspective, IR theory does not sufficiently acknowledge the human nervous system as a system involving a phylogenetically ordered response hierarchy, of which only one subsystem supports prosocial behavior. The ritual ingredients of mutual attention and shared mood may, moreover, be specified as part of a social engagement system, neurally regulating attention and emotional arousal via a face–heart connection. The article suggests that this social engagement system provides part of the neural basis for rhythmic entrainment. The polyvagal theory furthermore challenges IR theory to reconsider the importance of individual biological differences—ritual success may not merely be ascribed to interactional effects, but also to reciprocal causality between situations and neurobiological properties of ritual participants.     

Fairness motivation in bargaining: a matter of principle

In this paper, we study the role of fairness motivation in bargaining. We show that bargaining between two strongly fairness motivated individuals who have different views about what represents a fair division may end in disagreement. Further, by applying the Nash bargaining solution, we study the influence of fairness motivation on the bargaining outcome when an agreement is reached. In particular, we show that the bargaining outcome is sensitive to the fairness motivation of the two individuals, unless they both consider an equal division fair. We argue that our results accommodate existing experimental and field data on bargaining.     

Reflections on a Cross‐National Qualitative Study of Within‐Household Finances

This report presents some reflections on and experiences from a cross‐national qualitative research project about within‐household finances conducted by sociologists from Germany, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. The authors focus first on the challenges of making qualitative cross‐national comparisons and argue for the importance of establishing a common understanding of methodological and theoretical aspects. They then go on to consider the relevance of political – cultural context for understanding within‐household distribution of resources. They suggest that meanings of money are influenced by understandings of gender, which in turn influence and are influenced by welfare regimes. They then present a few outcomes from a cross‐national analysis of results from Spain, Sweden, and the United States. They conclude the article by suggesting that comparisons on the level of results rather than on the level of primary data is a viable option for qualitative cross‐national analysis.     

A customer view on the most preferred alliance structure between banks and insurance companies

Summary  In this paper, we have studied alternative alliance structures between banks and insurance companies from the point of view of Finnish customer representatives. Seven criteria were introduced for the evaluation of six alternative structure models for such alliances. The alliance models based on plain cross-selling agreements were considered most preferred. We also studied how familiar the customer representatives were with the alliance problem from the point of view of the bank and insurance executives and that of the supervisory authorities. We observed that the customer representatives did not recognize the problem as well from the point of view of the supervisors as that of the executives. The best compromise model from all three points of view could be the financial conglomerate on the condition that certain supervisory and customer criteria are satisfied to a sufficient degree.

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Zusammenfassung  In diesem Beitrag untersuchen wir alternative Allianzstrukturen zwischen Banken und Versicherungsgesellschaften aus der Sicht finnischer Konsumentenvertreter. Zur Bewertung sechs alternativer Strukturmodelle werden sieben Kriterien herangezogen. Dabei zeigt sich, dass diejenigen Allianzmodelle am meisten pr?feriert wurden, die einfache Leistungsverbünde darstellen. Zugleich wurde untersucht, inwieweit die Konsumentenvertreter mit der Sichtweise vertraut waren, unter der die Bank-und Versicherungsvorst?nde sowie die Aufsichtsbeh?rden Allianzprobleme analysieren. Dabei zeigte sich, dass die Konsumentenvertreter das Allianzproblem nicht in derselben Weise verstanden, wie die Aufsichtsbeh?rden und Vorst?nde. Um allen drei Sichtweisen gleicherma?en gerecht zu werden, besteht das beste Kompromissmodell darin, ein Finanzkonglomerat zu bilden, welches die Kriterien der Aufsichtsbeh?rde und der Konsumentenvertreter in hinreichendem Ma?e zufrieden stellend erfüllt.

     

Extraction of sea temperature in the Barents Sea by a scale space multiresolution method – prospects for Atlantic salmon

Variation of marine temperature at different time scales is a central environmental factor in the life cycle of marine organisms, and may have particular importance for various life stages of anadromous species, for example, Atlantic salmon. To understand the salient features of temperature variation we employ scale space multiresolution analysis, that uses differences of smooths of a time series to decompose it as a sum of scale-dependent components. The number of resolved components can be determined either automatically or by exploring a map that visualizes the structure of the time series. The statistical credibility of the features of the components is established with Bayesian inference. The method was applied to analyze a marine temperature time series measured from the Barents Sea and its correlation with the abundance of Atlantic salmon in three Barents Sea rivers. Besides the annual seasonal variation and a linear trend, the method revealed mid time-scale (～10 years) and long time-scale (～30 years) variation. The 10-year quasi-cyclical component of the temperature time series appears to be connected with a similar feature in Atlantic salmon abundance. These findings can provide information about the environmental factors affecting seasonal and periodic variation in survival and migrations of Atlantic salmon and other migratory fish.     

Multivariate posterior singular spectrum analysis

A generalized, multivariate version of the Posterior Singular Spectrum Analysis (PSSA) method is described for the identification of credible features in multivariate time series. We combine Bayesian posterior modeling with multivariate SSA (MSSA) and infer the MSSA signal components with a credibility analysis of the posterior sample. The performance of multivariate PSSA (MPSSA) is compared to the single-variate PSSA with an artificial example and the potential of MPSSA is demonstrated with real data using NAO and SOI climate index series.     

Going the Extra Mile? How Street‐level Bureaucrats Deal with the Integration of Immigrants

Dutch immigration and integration policies are being interpreted and implemented by local street‐level bureaucrats. We carried out 28 semi‐structured interviews with integration coaches, integration teachers and client managers in order to understand the dilemmas they face, and to explain their subsequent behaviour. The results show that although organizational characteristics such as the bureaucratic burden made street‐level bureaucrats reluctant to enlarge their discretionary space at the expense of policy rules, their willingness to help clients often transcends these boundaries under a combination of three conditions: high client motivation, extreme personal distress of the client, and negative assessment of existing policies and policy instruments (both in terms of fairness and practicality). Furthermore, street‐level bureaucrats were found to be constantly reinterpreting and revising their roles.