Household Debt and Adult Depressive Symptoms in the United States

This study used data from Waves 1 (1987–1989) and 2 (1992–1994) of the National Survey of Families and Households in the United States and a series of regression models, some of which included individual-specific fixed effects, to estimate associations of particular types and levels of debt with adult depressive symptoms. Results suggest that household debt is positively associated with greater depressive symptoms. However, this association appears to be driven by short-term (unsecured) debt; we found little evidence of associations with depressive symptoms for mid- or long-term debt. The link between short-term debt and depressive symptoms persisted with alternative estimation strategies, including defining debt in absolute and relative terms. Furthermore, this association was particularly concentrated among 51–64 year-old adults, those with a high school education or less, and those who were not stably married throughout the observation period. These findings suggest that short-term debt may have an adverse influence on psychological wellbeing, particularly for those who are less educated, approaching retirement age, or unmarried.     

Sorokin as Lifelong Russian Intellectual: The Enactment of an Historically Rooted Sensibility

Prior to his 1922 emigration to Europe and thence to the United States, Pitirim Alexandrovich Sorokin had an exceptional intellectual and political career in Russia and the Soviet Union (Sorokin 1924, 1963a; Johnston 1995; Krotov 2005). Indeed, he was among the early founders of the science of sociology in his native land, where, according to a relatively recent bibliography (Sorokin 2000), he produced 162 Russian-language publications between the ages of 21 and 33. This listing includes not only book reviews and journal articles, but also substantial monographs and a two-volume theoretical treatise. While still a relatively young man, Sorokin had thus gained widespread recognition as a scholar of the first rank. He was also the initial chairperson (from 1919 to 1922) of a fledgling department of sociology at the University of Petrograd (St. Petersburg), an elected member of the national Constituent Assembly and an appointed staff member of the 1917 Provisional Government, the first democratic regime in Russia. This much would have sufficed for an entry in a sociological encyclopedia, and Sorokin’s political career has few parallels in the history of the field, other than the involvement of Emile Durkheim in French educational policy and the participation of Max Weber in creating the Weimar Republic in Germany. Nevertheless sociologists in the United States and most western historians of the field have not yet appreciated the full influence of the formative period, especially from 1905 to 1922. Lacking familiarity with Russian culture of that era and knowing little about the larger Russian socio-historical milieu, its intellectual discourse and collective memory, they have not been able to comprehend Sorokin’s outlook, behavior and professional output in the United States in relation to these earlier contextual factors. This is arguably a fundamental reason why many U.S. sociologists have tended to see Sorokin, especially since 1937, as a marginal figure and to regard his works largely as deviations from accepted social scientific practice. This paper will argue that a more adequate appreciation of Sorokin’s background and early adult life illumines both stylistic features of his works in America and also places into proper perspective several of his substantive foci that did not accord with contemporary “normal science” (Kuhn 1962). In short, despite his overall assimilation into American society and higher education, including his appointment at Harvard University and his election as president of the American Sociological Association, Sorokin should be understood in large measure as a life-long Russian intellectual. His was a Russian-born sensibility and consciousness—indeed a “Russian soul”—so deeply ingrained that it stamped his entire professional career in the United States, including his published researches, his popular sociology and his university teaching.     

EFFECTS OF EXPOSURE ON PREVALENCE AND CUMULATIVE RELATIVE RISK: DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS IN A RECURSIVE HAZARD MODEL

This paper outlines decomposition methods for assessing how exposure affects prevalence and cumulative relative risk. Let     x     denote a vector of exogenous covariates and suppose that a single dimension of time   t   governs two event processes     T ₁  and   T ₂.    If the occurrence of the event     T ₁    determines entry into the risk of the event     T ₂,    then subgroup variation in     T ₁    will affect the prevalence     T ₂,    even if subgroups in the population are otherwise identical. Although researchers often acknowledge this phenomenon, the literature has not provided procedures to assess the magnitude of an exposure effect of     T ₁    on the prevalence of     T ₂.    We derive decompositions that assess how variation in exposure generated by direct and indirect effects of the covariates     x     affect measures of absolute and relative prevalence of     T ₂.    We employ a parametric but highly flexible specification for baseline hazard for the     T ₁  and   T ₂    processes and use the resulting parametric proportional hazard model to illustrate the direct and indirect effects of family structure when     T ₁    is age at first sexual intercourse and     T ₂    is age at a premarital first birth for data on a cohort of non-hispanic white U.S. women.     

Analyzing the Homeland Security of the U.S.-Mexico Border

We develop a mathematical optimization model at the intersection of homeland security and immigration, that chooses various immigration enforcement decision variables to minimize the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States across the U.S.-Mexico border. Included are a discrete choice model for the probability that a potential alien crosser will attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border in terms of the likelihood of success and the U.S. wage for illegal workers, a spatial model that calculates the apprehension probability as a function of the number of crossers, the number of border patrol agents, and the amount of surveillance technology on the border, a queueing model that determines the probability that an apprehended alien will be detained and removed as a function of the number of detention beds, and an equilibrium model for the illegal wage that balances the supply and demand for work and incorporates the impact of worksite enforcement. Our main result is that detention beds are the current system bottleneck (even after the large reduction in detention residence times recently achieved by expedited removal), and increases in border patrol staffing or surveillance technology would not provide any improvements without a large increase in detention capacity. Our model also predicts that surveillance technology is more cost effective than border patrol agents, which in turn are more cost effective than worksite inspectors, but these results are not robust due to the difficulty of predicting human behavior from existing data. Overall, the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States is very high, and it would be extremely costly and difficult to significantly reduce it. We also investigate the alternative objective function of minimizing the flow of illegal aliens across the U.S.-Mexico border, and obtain qualitatively similar results.     

Sick building syndrome and perceived indoor environmental quality: A survey of apartment buildings in Hong Kong

The outbreak of a highly communicable disease, SARS, in Asia in 2003 has revealed the health risk of living in a high-density environment. To show the important connection between human health and environmental quality, this study surveys the prevalence of sick building syndrome (SBS) among apartment residents and their evaluation of indoor environmental quality (IEQ). Based on a sample of 748 households living in Hong Kong, two interesting findings are revealed: (1) nasal discomfort was the commonest home-related SBS symptom despite the absence of any central ventilation system in apartment buildings; (2) noise, rather than ventilation, was the major IEQ problem perceived by residents. Our statistical analysis further showed that residents with SBS symptoms were less satisfied with their IEQ than those without. That is, despite a positive evaluation of specific IEQ criteria with respect to the building residents lived in, if they reported feeling SBS related symptoms, the overall IEQ evaluation of their building could still be negative. This perception bias gives rise to a sample selection problem in measuring perceived IEQ, which has implications on housing management practices and the formulation of a healthy housing policy.     

A Mechanical Interpretation of the Coefficient of Rank Correlation and other Analogies

Periodically, the pyramid or “chain letter” scheme is offered to Americans under the guise of a business dealership. Recently, the FTC ordered Glen Turner's “Dare to be Great” firm to repay 44 million dollars to participants. In order to demonstrate that the potential gains are misrepresented by promoters, a probability model of the pyramid scheme is developed. The major implications are that the vast majority of participants have less than a ten percent chance of recouping their initial investment when a small profit is achieved as soon as they recruit three people and that, on the average, half of the participants will recruit no one else and lose all their money.     

Composition and decomposition in nonmarital fertility

Ermisch (2009) criticized Gray, Stockard, and Stone (2006), arguing that they incorrectly tested a model positing a nonlinear relationship between the nonmarital fertility ratio and the proportion of unmarried women. I identify a different problem, which is that even if this model were to hold for a particular population, it would not in general hold for subgroups of this population; likewise, were it to hold for subgroups, it would not hold for aggregations of these subgroups.