On the measurement of unfairness An application to high school attendance in Argentina

This paper presents a framework to measure unfairness in certain outcomes, like education attendance or basic health services consumption. The determinants of an individual outcome are divided into socially acceptable and unacceptable sources of differences in that outcome. To detect an unfair situation, comparisons are restricted to those individuals who share the same value of the vector of acceptable factors. The relevant argument to compare is the expectation of the outcome conditional on the vector of unacceptable variables. Unfairness is related to inequality in the distribution of those conditional expectations across individuals. An illustration of the framework is presented for the case of high school attendance in the Greater Buenos Aires area and other Argentine cities. Received: 25 August 2000/Accepted: 6 August 2001     

Forecasting spring flow time series

Summary The paper deals with a statistical analysis, carried out to define the underlying reason of some of the damage observed in many buildings of a southern Italian town. Engineering considerations, substantiated by specific measurements, attributed them to the lowering of the groundwater table in the area below the building locations. Due to two coinciding events which occurred in the preceding years, i.e. a persistent drought and the start up of a system of wells, it was not possible to define the cause of the former phenomenon. As shutting down the wells could generate additional problems, an accurate picture of the whole situation was necessary, before taking any action. By taking advantage of some fragmentary data belonging to the flow of a spring located in the area and on the basis of the knowledge of the rainfall data recorded in the Italian hydrographic service directory, two models have been developed which reproduce the spring flow time series in relation to the rainfall recorded in the surrounding area. By comparing the spring flow predictions with the actual data it has been possible to highlight the main role played by the wells.     

Exponential Family Techniques for the Lognormal Left Tail

Let X be lognormal(μ,σ²) with density f(x); let θ > 0 and define . We study properties of the exponentially tilted density (Esscher transform) f_θ(x) = e^?θxf(x)/L(θ), in particular its moments, its asymptotic form as θ→∞ and asymptotics for the saddlepoint θ(x) determined by . The asymptotic formulas involve the Lambert W function. The established relations are used to provide two different numerical methods for evaluating the left tail probability of the sum of lognormals S_n=X₁+?+X_n: a saddlepoint approximation and an exponential tilting importance sampling estimator. For the latter, we demonstrate logarithmic efficiency. Numerical examples for the cdf F_n(x) and the pdf f_n(x) of S_n are given in a range of values of σ²,n and x motivated by portfolio value‐at‐risk calculations.     

Quick Exposure Check (QEC): a cross-cultural adaptation into Brazilian-Portuguese

Most instruments used by occupational safety and health professionals have been originally developed in English. Cross-cultural adaptation enables the use of these instruments in other countries, cultures and languages in countries like Brazil, where the official language is not English. This methodology ensures that the translation process includes the cultural and linguistic equivalence between the original instrument and the translated version. Therefore, this study aimed to translate and cross-culturally adapt the instrument Quick Exposure Check (QEC) into Brazilian-Portuguese. The process of cross-cultural adaptation followed the steps of translation, synthesis, back-translation, expert committee review and pretesting. The final questionnaire was pretested by two raters in 40 workers employed in an expedition of knitting and textile industry. All versions resulting from the translation process (T1, T2) and back-translation (BT1, BT2) showed good agreement. During the pre-test was not presented any difficulty in understanding or completing the instrument adapted QEC for Brazilian language.     

Size matters: vegetation patch size and surface temperature relationship in foothills cities of northwestern Argentina

Urbanization is one of the most extreme forms of land alteration. Energy fluxes are severely affected and cities tend to have the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon, although vegetated areas inside cities could have a positive effect in mitigating UHI effect. Our main objective was to analyze the relationship between vegetation characteristics, patch size and land surface temperature (LST) in three urban areas of northwestern Argentina. We selected 38 green spaces of different size distributed in four cities, all located in the eastern foothills of the subtropical mountain forests. We used Landsat TM satellite images to calculate Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and LST. We assessed the net effect of patch size on LST by computing a Difference Temperature Index. At the regional scale, our results showed that vegetation patch size had a direct effect on reducing the LST of the green space. At a local scale, the analysis of the relationship between vegetation on urban green spaces and LST along a gradient of urbanization showed that green spaces with more vegetation tends to reduce LST. The results showed that largest green spaces were between 1.5 and 2.8 °C cooler than the surrounding built. In order to mitigate the UHI effect in cities, larger green spaces appear to be a possible solution.     

Development and Validation of the Transgender Inclusive Behavior Scale (TIBS)

Transgender-inclusive behaviors are actions and communication supporting transgender individuals. Examples include using language not reinforcing the gender binary, asking for and using correct pronouns, creation of spaces that welcome members of the transgender community, and acknowledging cisgender (non-transgender) privilege. A survey was developed measuring this behavior in individuals to examine the impact of transgender-inclusive behavior and the potential effect of interventions on promoting inclusive behavior. Data were collected utilizing an online survey (N = 1,051). The sample was split in half to run two sets of cases in a principal components analysis. Analysis of the full sample showed Cronbach’s alpha to be .93 (n = 918). Findings suggest that the Transgender Inclusive Behavior Scale (TIBS) may be a useful instrument for identifying behaviors related to being inclusive of transgender individuals, groups, and communities. It may also be used to measure behavior change before and after transgender-specific educational and behavioral interventions.     

Censoring the Sexual Self: Reflections from an Ethnographic Study of Gay Filipinos on Mobile Dating Apps in Manila

This paper reflects upon Evelyn Blackwood's 1995 ‘Falling in Love with An-Other Lesbian’ essay on love and desire during fieldwork research as it intersects with the figure of the ‘virtual anthropologist’ in Kath Weston's 1997 essay of the same name. My multiple subjectivities (specifically those nativised) enabled and restricted what I considered bonds and differences between me and others during ethnographic research among gay Filipino men using mobile dating apps. I revisit an experience from four weeks of preliminary data collection between May and June 2015 in Manila, Philippines, where I decided not to include a sexual encounter with a research participant named Wesley. Moving forward with my study, my reflections on censoring sexual encounters with research participants helped me to acknowledge several sources of moral anxieties and ethical considerations that influence how this specific testimony took its shape and to consider how to construct and apply a malleable ethic of honesty for current and future projects especially when intimacies themselves are the focus.     

Who Evacuates When Hurricanes Approach? The Role of Risk,Information, and Location*

Objective. This article offers an expanded perspective on evacuation decision making during severe weather. In particular, this work focuses on uncovering determinants of individual evacuation decisions. Methods. We draw on a survey conducted in 2005 of residents in the eight‐county Houston metropolitan area after Hurricane Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005. Results. We find that evacuation decisions are influenced by a heterogeneous set of parameters, including perceived risk from wind, influence of media and neighbors, and awareness of evacuation zone, that are often at variance with one of the primary measures of risk used by public officials to order or recommend an evacuation (i.e., storm surge). We further find that perceived risk and its influence on evacuation behavior is a local phenomenon more readily communicated by and among individuals who share the same geography, as is the case with residents living inside and outside official risk areas. Conclusions. Who evacuates and why is partially dependent on where one lives because perceptions of risk are not uniformly shared across the area threatened by an approaching hurricane and the same sources and content of information do not have the same effect on evacuation behavior. Hence, efforts to persuade residential populations about risk and when, where, and how to evacuate or shelter in place should originate in the neighborhood rather than emanating from blanket statements from the media or public officials. Our findings also raise important policy questions (included in the discussion section) that require further study and consideration by those responsible with organizing and implementing evacuation plans.     

Tracing out the effects of demographic changes on the income distribution

During the 1980s and 1990s fertility decisions varied significantly and not uniformly along the income distribution in Argentina. In this paper we study the effects of these demographic changes on income poverty and inequality by applying microeconometric decomposition techniques. In particular, we simulate the equivalized household income distribution that would emerge if individuals observed in a given base year had taken fertility decisions as they did in another different year. The results suggest that these demographic factors have contributed considerably to the changes in poverty and inequality experienced by Argentina since the 1980s.