Integrating world cities into production networks: the case of port cities

In this article we analyse the location patterns of firms that provide specialized advanced producer services (APS) to international commodity chains that move through seaports. Such activities can take place in world cities or in port cities. The analysis of APS location patterns in port cities provides a good opportunity to integrate the study of world cities into the framework of Global Production Networks. Based upon our empirical findings, we conclude that while port-related APS activities predominantly follow the world city hierarchy, a number of port cities stand out because they act as nodes in global commodity flows and as centres of advanced services related to shipping and port activities. Based on these empirical findings we address future avenues of research.     

STEROIDS AND HOME RUNS

There has been no change in Major League Baseball home run hitting for 45 yr, in spite of the new records. Players hit with no more power now than before. Records are the result of chance variations in at bats, home runs per hit, and other factors. The clustering of records is implied by the intermittency of the law of home runs. Home runs follow a stable Paretian distribution with infinite variance. The shape and scale of the distribution have not changed over the years. The greatest home run hitters are as rare as great scientists, artists, or composers. (JEL A10, C02, C16, C52, L51)     

Bayesian Survival Analysis in Proportional Hazard Models with Logistic Relative Risk

Abstract.  The traditional Cox proportional hazards regression model uses an exponential relative risk function. We argue that under various plausible scenarios, the relative risk part of the model should be bounded, suggesting also that the traditional model often might overdramatize the hazard rate assessment for individuals with unusual covariates. This motivates our working with proportional hazards models where the relative risk function takes a logistic form. We provide frequentist methods, based on the partial likelihood, and then go on to semiparametric Bayesian constructions. These involve a Beta process for the cumulative baseline hazard function and any prior with a density, for example that dictated by a Jeffreys-type argument, for the regression coefficients. The posterior is derived using machinery for Lévy processes, and a simulation recipe is devised for sampling from the posterior distribution of any quantity. Our methods are illustrated on real data. A Bernshtĕn–von Mises theorem is reached for our class of semiparametric priors, guaranteeing asymptotic normality of the posterior processes.     

池田大作的中道思想与未来观

池田大作的“中道思想” ,认为矛盾对立的双方其实是统一的、依存的关系 ,所以人类要想生存、发展 ,在未来人与自然、人与社会以及国家、民族间的相互关系方面 ,必须致力于维护相互间的和谐。为了达到这一目标 ,他认为创立一种新的宗教是必要的     

A strategic model of communications demand

Strategic planning of telecommunications supply takes place in an increasingly turbulent environment due to factors such as the development of new and improved telecommunications services, the convergence of computing and telecommunications technologies and the emergence of the information society. This article is concerned with a model of future communications demand, developed under a research contract placed by British Telecom. The model describes dynamic trends in the supply and demand for communications products and services over a 30 year time horizon. Some key model features are outlined and an overview of the computer programme is given. The aim of the project was to provide decision-makers with a flexible, analytical tool for the exploration of policy issues and environmental impacts. The model should not be viewed as a forecasting tool but as an aid to structured thinking and the rapid assessment of alternative scenarios.     

Computing Probabilities of Type I Error and Type II Error of Sequential Bayesian Procedures for Testing One-Sided Hypotheses

In this article, it is shown how to compute, in an approximated way, probabilities of Type I error and Type II error of sequential Bayesian procedures for testing one-sided null hypotheses. First, some theoretical results are obtained, and then an algorithm is developed for applying these results. The prior predictive density plays a central role in this study.     

ON GENDER GAPS AND SELF‐FULFILLING EXPECTATIONS: ALTERNATIVE IMPLICATIONS OF PAID‐FOR TRAINING

This paper presents a model of self‐fulfilling expectations by firms and households which generates multiplicity of equilibria in pay and housework time allocation for ex‐ante identical spouses. Multiplicity arises from statistical discrimination exerted by firms in the provision of paid‐for training to workers, rather than from incentive problems in the labor market. Employers' beliefs about differences in spouses' reactions to housework shocks lead to symmetric (ungendered) and asymmetric (gendered) equilibria. We find that: (1) the ungendered equilibrium tends to prevail as aggregate productivity in the economy increases (regardless of the generosity of family aid policies), (2) the ungendered equilibrium could yield higher welfare under some scenarios, and (3) gender‐neutral job subsidies are more effective that gender‐targeted ones in removing the gendered equilibrium. (JEL J16, J70, J71)     

A Probabilistic Perspective on Re-Identifiability

A quasi-identifier is a set of attributes that can be used to re-identify entries in anonymized data sets. A group of individuals is considered about whom quasi-identifying numerical information is disclosed such as date of birth, age, weight, and height. The fraction of individuals is determined whose information is unique in that group and hence is identifiable unambiguously. Nonuniformity can be captured well by a single number, the Kullback-Leibler distance. For example sets of real microdata, given approximations based on Kullback-Leibler distances are accurate. Second, the effect of disclosing more specific or less specific information is analyzed experimentally. Third, the effect of correlation between numerical attributes is measured. A formula gives the re-identifiability level. The approximations are validated using publicly available demographic data sets.     

CRITIQUE DE LA THEORIE LIBERALE DU DEVELOPPEMENT

To this day, the development programs proposed for underdeveloped countries have met with little success because the economic analysis which encompasses them takes into account only the technique and data of macro-economics and ignores social relations. It is this weakness of the analysis that caused Western experts to be unaware of the effects of imperialism on the Third World, the evolution particular to underdeveloped countries that A.G. Frank called "development of underdevelopment." This evolution, characterized by the exploitation of Third World resources in the interests of the West, must be thwarted by a firmer, more independent stand on the part of the underdeveloped countries.
Les programmes de développement proposés aux pays sous-développés ont connu peu de succès jusqu'à ce jour. C'est que l'analyse économiste qui les sous-tend ne tient compte que de la technique et des données macro-économiques, ignorant ainsi les rapports sociaux. C'est la faiblesse de l'analyse qui a mené les experts occidentaux à ignorer les effets de l'impérialisme sur le Tiers-Monde, cette évolution spécifique des pays sous-développés que A.G. Frank a appelée « développement du sous-développement >>. Cette évolution, caractérisée par l'exploitation des ressources du Tiers-Monde selon les intérêts de l'Occident, doit être contrecarrée par une prise de position plus ferme et plus indépendante de la part des pays sous-développés.