破产矿山企业档案收集中的问题与对策

本文试图通过对破产矿山企业档案收集工作中存在的难点症结及其成因进行分析与研究,进而探讨解决问题的对策,以提高企业档案收集工作的质量。     

诚心智语弘论诤言--王明浩《城市情结》读后感

人们久居城市,自然会对城市生出一份热忱、偏好和眷顾,此或日:"城市情结".然而,要思辨、理性地去阐发自己的城市情结,不仅需要足够广博的学识,更需要一种超然无我的境界.近读王明浩先生<城市情结>一书,吸引我的不仅是书名,更是其富集的思想内容.读后不由有感而发.     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

The Robustness of Trend Stationarity: An Illustration with the Extended Nelson-Plosser Dataset

We re-evaluate Andreu and Spanos's findings in favour of trend stationarity by considering the extended Nelson-Plosser data set. This expanded (to 1988) data set includes a period of rather different behaviour compared with the original Nelson-Plosser data used by Andreou and Spanos. We find that Andreou and Spanos's models (with only minor adjustments) exhibit remarable stability over this extended period, and indicate that their conclusions are more robust than they have shown.     

鄂西土家族传统情歌创唱者心理状态特点及成因

土家族传统情歌创唱者的心理状态是土家族传统情歌的重要组成部分.通过对鄂西土家族传统情歌的总体梳理,发掘土家族传统情歌创唱者心理状态的嬗变性、交揉性、稳定性等特点.并从自然条件、人文因素、历史变迁、民族心理积淀等方面探寻了情歌创唱者产生诸种心理状态的原因.同时阐发了这种特点发掘与原因探寻的意义之所在.     

从《军队的女儿》看边疆文学创作的审美追求

该文重温20世纪50年代边疆文学的代表作《军队的女儿》,以此探讨50至60年代边疆文学对青年支边那段历史的时代书写与个性追求而呈现的审美特征。以此探讨文学与意识形态、文学与历史、个人与集体、宏大叙事与个性写作之间种种复杂关系,尤其是挖掘边疆文学因独特的政治背景、地域特色所蕴涵的人文精神与审美追求。     

Unresolved Conflicts in the Regional Security System: The Case of the South Caucasus

The collapse of the USSR was accompanied by transformation of the South Caucasian latent ethnopolitical conflicts into local wars. Today the situation in the area of the conflicts is “neither war, nor peace”. Three unresolved conflicts of the South Caucasus can be considered as one of the most serious obstacles for establishing a regional security system.The article gives the general characteristics of these conflicts, the trends of their development, taking into account the time factor, and analyzes the behavioral models of the main players – de jure recognized and unrecognized de facto states of the South Caucasus. The basic objective of the main players should be to keep the situation on a level preventing the resumption of the armed conflicts. The attempts of forced resolution of the conflicts are fraught with destabilization of the situation not only in the area of any of these conflicts but in the whole region.