H-likelihood: problems and solutions

In recent issues of this journal it has been asserted in two papers that the use of h-likelihood is wrong, in the sense of giving unsatisfactory estimates of some parameters for binary data (Kuk and Cheng, 1999; Waddington and Thompson, 2004) or theoretically unsound (Kuk and Cheng, 1999). We wish to refute both these assertions.     

President Nixon sees a ‘cover up’: Public relations in federal agencies

Early in his first term. President Nixon initiated an effort to make major cuts in the number of personnel of federal agencies engaged in public relations as well as in the agencies' public relations budgets. He described those public relations employees as “covered up pretty properly.” His goal was to “get the public relations complement in each Department reduced by 50 per cent regardless of what they are officially called.” This article reports on the origin, implementation and denouement of President Nixon's war on public relations in public administration at the federal level of government.     

Union survival strategies for the twenty-first century

Clearly, the necessary changes in the law and culture will not come easily or quickly. But, transcending all forms of these labor market segments is a set of concerns that arguably should spur a search for common ground between labor and management. The proliferation of automated technologies, together with the continuing impact of foreign competition with cheap labor markets, has led some to predict that, over the next quarter century, we will witness the elimination of the blue-collar, mass assembly-line worker from the production process.¹⁴ Moreover, the theory that those losing jobs in the manufacturing sector will be generally absorbed into the service sector is losing currency as it is becoming clear that service jobs are, themselves, not invulnerable either to offshore outsourcing (e.g., telephone operators, data processors) or to automated technology (e.g., bank tellers, office secretaries). Nor is it realistic to expect the new “knowledge sector” to absorb more than a fraction of the unemployed and underemployed casualties of this transformation. As a result, the widening gap between the haves and have nots will only continue to grow. As the trend accelerates, certain possibilities for a labor-management accommodation emerge. For one thing, although corporations may be enjoying short-term gains from present wage stagnation, downsizing, outsourcing, and casting off of permanent employees, the longer term effects include a work force with considerably diminished consumer purchasing power. In some industries, corporations are already acknowledging the adverse effects of this trend. Furthermore, as employers are contributing into pension funds on behalf of fewer and fewer “employees,” the forced savings pool that has for many years constituted a primary financing source of capital investments in our economy, will gradually be depleted.¹⁵ At the same time as employers are coming face to face with the disadvantages of the union-free environment they have so long sought, employers are also rediscovering the contributions to productivity, quality, and efficiency that can be gained from a truly empowered work force with an independent voice in the workplace. All of this should lead an enlightened management to place less currency on resisting unionization and other legitimate forms of independent employee representation, and to join labor in advocating strong labor standards and effective labor law for all four of the labor market segments that exist today and will exist tomorrow. The authors wish to convey their deep appreciation for the invaluable contributions to this paper made by David Silberman of Bredhoff & Kaiser and Craig Becker, Associate General Counsel, Service Employees International Union. Another version of this paper was published in Labor Lawyer.     

Conditional maxima and inferences for the truncated exponential distribution

This paper derives the conditional distribution of the maximum given the sample total for a random sample from the truncated exponential distribution. Based on that result, the paper develops tests or associated confidence intervals for the truncation parameter θ with another parameter θ assumed unknown.     

Social Isolation and Lethal Violence Across the Metro/Nonmetro Divide: The Effects of Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Poverty Concentration on Homicide*

Abstract This study extends the macro‐level criminological research tradition by examining the links between socioeconomic disadvantage, poverty concentration, and homicide in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan U.S. counties. Most research in this tradition has tested structural theories using urban areas as the unit of analysis. This “urban bias” has resulted in a limited understanding of the social forces driving violence in nonmetropolitan areas. To partially address this problem, we link the literature on the spatial and social organization of nonmetropolitan communities with the social isolation perspective from the urban poverty literature. We hypothesize that the spatial concentration of poverty drives up rates of homicide in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas regardless of levels of socioeconomic disadvantage. Negative binomial regression for 1,746 nonmetropolitan and 778 metropolitan counties suggest that both socioeconomic disadvantage and poverty concentration elevate homicide in metropolitan areas. However, in nonmetropolitan counties only socioeconomic disadvantage has a significant impact. We conclude by discussing the implications of these differential findings for the social isolation perspective.     

Immigrants' Language Skills: The Australian Experience in a Longitudinal Survey

This article is concerned with the determinants of English language proficiency (speaking, reading and writing) among immigrants. It presents a model of immigrant destination language proficiency based on economic incentives, exposure to the destination language, and efficiency in second language acquisition. A unique data set, the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia, is used to test the model. This survey had three waves, at about six months, eighteen months and three‐and‐a‐half years after immigration. The analyses are performed by wave, type of language skill and gender using probit analysis. Bivariate probit analysis is used across waves. The hypotheses are supported by the data. The bivariate probit analysis indicates a positive correlation in the unexplained component that declines with time between waves, suggesting a “regression to the mean” in the unobserved components of English language proficiency.     

Hair loss and electability: The bald truth

This study probes one particular component of the well documented linkage between personal appearance and impression formation by investigating the extent to which and the mechanisms through which bald and balding men are underrepresented in high elective office. Study 1 compares the prevalence of hair loss among governors and members of Congress, on the one hand, and the general public, on the other, and concludes that officeholders are much more likely to have a full head of hair than would be expected of men of their age. Study 2 poses an experimental test of voter bias against bald and balding candidates by presenting voters in a simulated congressional race with materials depicting otherwise identical candidates in either their natural bald or balding condition or wearing a professionally fitted hairpiece. No voter bias against bald or balding candidates is apparent, a finding that suggests that the causal mechanism underlying underrepresentation of bald and balding men is not voter bias.Ugly is a field without grass, a plant without leaves, or a head without hair (Ovid, quoted by Klenhard, 1986, p. 11).Politics represents an area of public life in which the effects of appearance may lead to very important social consequences and in which the idea of special privilege for the pretty is particularly repellent (Efran and Patterson, 1975, p. 352).The authors thank Judee Burgoon, Michael Burgoon, and Carol Sigelman for useful comments and suggestions, and Brandt Baker, Henry Ewbank, Jeff Gardner, Henry Kenski, Dan Singer, and David Williams for their assistance with this project.     

Older Workers: Who are the working poor in the U.S.?

With data from the 2000 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), the purpose of this study was to provide a profile of older workers who live poverty, and to compare the demographic, financial, employment, and health attributes of such individuals to similar persons not living in poverty. This study found that 3.5% of employed individuals between the ages of 51 and 61 belonged to the class of working poor. The results of the multivariate logistic regression analyses indicated that the older working poor were more likely to be non-White, less educated, non-married, and had lower levels of net worth than the working non-poor. They were more likely to be employed part time and were less likely to be covered by employee-sponsored health insurance.