Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050

This research contributes to an understanding of the relationship between climate change, economic impacts and migration. We model the long-term relationship (up to 45 years of projection) between demographic dynamics—particularly migration—driven by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate changes in the Northeast region of Brazil. The region is of particular relevance to the study of climate change impacts given its large human population (28% of Brazil’s population) and high levels of impoverishment, having an extensive semi-dry area which will be severely impacted by growing temperatures. Ultimately, the integrated model generates state- and municipal-level migration scenarios based on climate change impacts on the primary economic sectors and their articulations with other sectors. Results suggest that the predicted climate changes will impact severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country. Finally, we discuss how the increased vulnerability of some groups, particularly migrants, can be factored into Brazilian public policy and planning.     

Teaching Business Demography Using Case Studies

Many faculty members consider using case studies but not all end up using them. We provide a brief review of what cases are intended to do and identify three ways in which they can be used. We then use an example to illustrate how we have used the case study method in teaching business demography. Among other benefits, we note that the case studies method not only encourages the acquisition of skills by students, but can be used to promote “deep structure learning,” an approach naturally accommodates other features associated with the case studies method—the development of critical thinking skills, the use of real world problems, the emphasis of concepts over mechanics, writing and presentation skills, active cooperative learning and the “worthwhileness” of a course. As noted by others, we understand the limitations of the case study method. However, given its strengths, we believe it has a place in the instructional toolbox for courses in business demography. The fact that courses we teach is a testament to our perceived efficacy of this tool.     

New Directions in the Development of Population Estimates in the United States?

The advent of a continuously updated Master Area File (MAF) following the 2000 census represents an information resource that can be tapped for purposes of developing timely, cost-effective, and precise population estimates for even the smallest of geographical units (e.g., census blocks). We argue that the MAF can be enhanced (EMAF) for these purposes. In support of our argument we describe a set of activities needed to develop EMAF, each of which is well within the current capabilities of the U.S. Census Bureau and discuss various costs and benefits of each. We also describe how EMAF would provide population estimates containing a wide range of demographic (e.g., age, race, and sex) and socio-economic characteristics (e.g., educational attainment, income, and employment). As such, it could largely negate and eliminate the need for many of the traditional demographic methods of population estimation and possibly reduce the number of sample surveys. We identify important challenges that must be surmounted in order to realize EMAF and make suggestions for doing so. We conclude by noting that the idea of the EMAF could be of interest to other countries with MAF files and strong administrative records systems that, like the United States, are facing the challenge of producing good population information in the face of increasing census costs.     

Investigating Validity Evidence of the Satisfaction with Life Scale Adapted for Children

This study introduces the Satisfaction with Life Scale adapted for Children (SWLS-C) and presents psychometric findings regarding its validation. The SWLS-C was adapted from the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS; Diener et al. 1985), which is one of the most commonly used measures to assess satisfaction with life in adults. Three subject matter experts adapted the SWLS by changing the wording of the item stem and response format in order to make it more understandable for children. A stratified random sample of 1,233 students (48% girls) in grades 4–7 (mean age 11 years and 7 months) provided data on the SWLS-C and measures of optimism, self-concept, self-efficacy, depression, emphatic concern, and perspective taking. The SWLS-C demonstrated a unidimensional factor structure and high internal consistency. Furthermore, differential item functioning and differential scale functioning analyses indicated that the SWLS-C measures satisfaction with life in the same way for different groups of children (i.e., with regard to gender, first language learned at home—English vs. other language(s) than English—and across different grades) at the item and at the scale level. Associations between scores on the SWLS-C and demographic variables were statistically non-significant or of small effect size. In addition, the SWLS-C showed evidence of convergent and discriminant validity in relation to the other measures. Our results indicate that the SWLS-C is a psychometrically sound instrument that demonstrated evidence of construct validity for this age group. Limitations and future directions are discussed.     

No One Is Immune: A Community Education Partnership Addressing HIV/AIDS and Older Adults

There has been a dramatic increase in the number of new HIV diagnoses among people aged 50 to 64 in the United States, and according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in just 7 years (by 2015) 50% of those living with AIDS will be aged 50 or older. To address this public health concern, viable HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment options for individuals over the age of 50 are necessary. This article discusses the No One Is Immune initiative that planned, implemented, and coordinated evidence- based HIV/AIDS prevention and education programs specifically tailored for middle-aged and older adults. Guided by the health belief model, an educational conference entitled "Sexuality, Medication, and HIV/AIDS in Middle and Later Adulthood" was conducted along with research activities that assessed HIV/AIDS knowledge gained using both qualitative and quantitative measures. This project can be replicated by other providers within the aging network.     

Exercise self-regulation among older women participating in a heart disease-management intervention

Using behavioral self-regulation processes may facilitate exercise among older women with heart disease. Data from women in a heart disease-management program (n = 658, mean 73 years), was used to explore associations among exercise self-regulation components (i.e., choosing to improve exercise and observing, judging, and reacting to one's behavior) and exercise capacity. General linear models showed that choosing exercise predicted higher exercise self-regulation scores postprogram and 8 months later. In turn, these scores predicted greater improvements in exercise capacity concurrently and 8 months later. Interaction analyses revealed that the effect of self-regulation on exercise capacity was stronger among women who chose to work on exercise.     

The changing face of the Maltese population

In the last decade the Maltese population has seen an influx of overseas-born individuals. This has been largely due to Malta’s access to the European Union and the increased intake of refugee immigrants. These immigration trends have resulted in changes in population composition, with the overseas-born population increasing from 17,740 (4.7%) in 1995 to 24,560 (6.1%) in 2005. There has also been an increase in the proportion of births registered in Malta to overseas citizens, including citizens of non-EU Europe (1.1%); the African continent (1.5%); America (0.3%); and Asia (0.8%). About ten per cent of marriages in Malta are between a Maltese spouse and a foreigner. The data suggest that the Maltese population is slowly becoming more cosmopolitan, a trend that is gradually changing the ethnic composition of the Maltese community.     

Improving Gambling Survey Research Using Dual-Frame Sampling of Landline and Mobile Phone Numbers

Gambling prevalence studies are typically conducted within a single (landline) telephone sampling frame. This practice continues, despite emerging evidence that significant differences exist between landline and mobile (cell) phone only households. This study utilised a dual-frame (landline and mobile) telephone sampling methodology to cast light on the extent of differences across groups of respondents in respect to demographic, health, and gambling characteristics. A total of 2,014 participants from across Australian states and territories ranging in age from 18 to 96 years participated. Interviews were conducted using computer assisted telephone interviewing technology where 1,012 respondents from the landline sampling frame and 1,002 from the mobile phone sampling frame completed a questionnaire about gambling and other health behaviours. Responses across the landline sampling frame, the mobile phone sampling frame, and the subset of the mobile phone sampling frame that possessed a mobile phone only (MPO) were contrasted. The findings revealed that although respondents in the landline sample (62.7 %) did not significantly differ from respondents in the mobile phone sample (59.2 %) in gambling participation in the previous 12 months, they were significantly more likely to have gambled in the previous 12 months than the MPO sample (56.4 %). There were no significant differences in internet gambling participation over the previous 12 months in the landline sample (4.7 %), mobile phone sample (4.7 %) and the MPO sample (5.0 %). However, endorsement of lifetime problem gambling on the NODS-CLiP was significantly higher within the mobile sample (10.7 %) and the MPO sample (14.8 %) than the landline sample (6.6 %). Our research supports previous findings that reliance on a traditional landline telephone sampling approach effectively excludes distinct subgroups of the population from being represented in research findings. Consequently, we suggest that research best practice necessitates the use of a dual-frame sampling methodology. Despite inherent logistical and cost issues, this approach needs to become the norm in gambling survey research.     

Household Saving Behavior and the Influence of Family-Owned Business

This study focused on the lifecycle income objective of business-owning (farm and nonfarm) households. We hypothesized that the complex relationship between household and business management decisions had the potential to challenge predictions from standard household savings theory. Specifically, we tested for differences in saving behavior of these entrepreneurial households relative to the average US household. A limited dependent variable model was performed, keying in on the saving behavior and ability of household respondents in the Survey of Consumer Finances for 2007. The estimation results indicated that, along with standard demographic influences of savings models, households owning a farm or nonfarm business had a significantly higher likelihood of maintaining private saving in a given year. Our results highlight the necessity for future research on household saving behavior to account for the differing objectives and choice sets faced by households that own businesses when conducting analyses of household saving.