A copula-based partition Markov procedure

The number of parameters needed to specify a discrete multivariate Markov chain grows exponentially with the order and dimension of the chain, and when the size of the database is not large enough, it is not possibly a consistent estimation. In this paper, we introduce a strategy to estimate a multivariate process with an order greater than the order achieved using standard procedures. The new strategy consists in obtaining a partition of the state space which is constructed from a combination of the partitions corresponding to the marginal processes and the partitions corresponding to the multivariate Markov chain.     

No overall effect of urbanization on nest-dwelling arthropods of great tits (Parus major).

Urbanization has been shown to strongly affect community composition of various taxa with potentially strong shifts in ecological interactions, including those between hosts and parasites. We investigated the effect of urbanization on the composition of arthropods in nests of great tits in Flanders, Belgium. These nests contain taxonomically and functionally diverse arthropod communities including parasites, predators, detritivores and accidental commensals. Using a standardized hierarchical sampling design with subplots (200 m?×?200 m) nested in plots (3 km?×?3 km) of varying urbanization levels, we collected arthropods from nests of resident great tits after the young had fledged. Arthropods were extracted, identified to Primary Taxonomical Groups (PTG) and counted. Using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) we found diverging effects of urbanization on PTG occurrences and abundances at various levels, but we did not find an overall signal in arthropod diversity or richness. Also, visual inspection of non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) plots did not reveal any community differences between urbanization levels at plot or subplot scales. Land use and environmental variables at different distances around nestboxes did not contribute much to the variation between communities. Our results indicate that arthropod nestbox communities are generally not adversely affected by urbanization, and even city gardens and parks harbor comparable communities to forests and suburban areas. We thus found no evidence for a parasite release effect due to urbanization, nor an increased risk of parasitism in human-dominated environments.

     

Population and Climate Change: Consensus and Dissensus among Demographers

What role does population play in thinking about the problem of climate change and some of its solutions? In a survey conducted between February and April 2020, we asked European demographers to state their views on the relationship between climate change and population developments, and asked them to rate their concern about climate change and other socio-demographic issues. We found that climate change is at the top of the list of demographers’ concerns, but that their sense of urgency with respect to taking action to redress global warming is not matched by their belief that population policy can make a crucial difference in reducing CO₂ emissions: demographers are highly divided on the question whether the global population size should be reduced to lower CO₂ emissions, as well as on the question whether family planning is an effective policy instrument.     

Evaluating the Quality of Urban Development Plans Promoted by the European Union: The URBAN and URBANA Initiatives in Spain (1994–2013)

Since the 1990s, the European Union has launched different programs to promote urban development plans. Implementation and outcomes evaluations have resulted in a “European urban acquis” concerning the importance of comprehensiveness, collaborative governance, and participation to promote “good plans.” However, the evaluation of the quality of local plans, has received less attention. This article analyses quality of local plans developed under the framework of European Policies in Spain applying the plan quality evaluation approach, as well as factors explaining quality levels of these local plans. A scale to measure plan quality is proposed based on five main dimensions (fact base, objectives, policy actions, plan governance, evaluation). 64 local plans are analyzed applying content analysis. RgW and AD tests are used to measure codification reliability. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) is used to assess the validity of plan quality scale. Lineal regression is applied to analyze the impact of different aspects of planning process included in the ‘European urban acquis’ on plan quality. Main results show that CFA validates the scale proposed to measure local plan quality as a second-order factor; and point out objectives and policy actions as the most important first-order factors. Public participation during planning process, and more comprehensive plan across different policy areas, are the main factors explaining ‘good plans’. Therefore, the importance of the ‘European urban acquis,’ is confirmed in order to produce ‘good’ urban development plans; and the article provides a validated scale to evaluate the quality of urban development plans, and their main dimensions.

     

Adolescent social isolation and premature mortality in a Swedish birth cohort

Research shows consistently that social ties are important for longevity, and they may be particularly important during adolescence. An absence of social ties, or social isolation, during adolescence may adversely affect long-term health and wellbeing. While prior research has examined associations between isolation from friends and long-term health, and having no siblings and mortality, no study (of which we are aware) considers jointly both the role of having no friends and no siblings, nor more generally with whom adolescents spend time, and the risk of premature mortality. This paper extends the literature by drawing on data from the Stockholm Birth Cohort Study to examine the association between different types of social isolation during adolescence (i.e., an absence of friends, siblings, and time with other adolescents) and the risk of premature mortality by midlife. Results suggest that having no siblings, being unliked at school, and spending (mostly) no time with other adolescents, increases the risk of premature mortality. The association between being unliked and premature mortality was attenuated by demographic and adolescent characteristics. Consistent with our expectations, net of a robust set of covariates, adolescents who had no siblings and mostly spent no time with other adolescents (i.e., isolates) were the group most vulnerable to premature mortality by midlife. However, this was only true for females.

     

On bootstrap testing inference in cure rate models

Survival models deal with the time until the occurrence of an event of interest. However, in some situations the event may not occur in part of the studied population. The fraction of the population that will never experience the event of interest is generally called cure rate. Models that consider this fact (cure rate models) have been extensively studied in the literature. Hypothesis testing on the parameters of these models can be performed based on likelihood ratio, gradient, score or Wald statistics. Critical values of these tests are obtained through approximations that are valid in large samples and may result in size distortion in small or moderate sample sizes. In this sense, this paper proposes bootstrap corrections to the four mentioned tests and bootstrap Bartlett correction for the likelihood ratio statistic in the Weibull promotion time model. Besides, we present an algorithm for bootstrap resampling when the data presents cure fraction and right censoring time (random and non-informative). Simulation studies are conducted to compare the finite sample performances of the corrected tests. The numerical evidence favours the corrected tests we propose. We also present an application in an actual data set.     

Legal Corruption and Dissatisfaction with Democracy in the European Union

We aim to clarify a puzzling paradox: while shares of highly educated and non-religious individuals—who generally hold less prejudice—have increased in the Netherlands, levels of prejudice against ethnic minorities have yet risen over time. To solve the paradox, we use cross-sectional data from 1985 to 2011 in counterfactual analyses. In these analyses we simulate that levels of ethnic prejudice within categories of education, church membership, and church attendance are kept constant at the 1985 level and a new simulated trend in prejudice is estimated for the 1985–2011 period. Our findings show that changing levels of prejudice within categories of education are partly responsible for the trend. We conclude that the increasing share of highly educated individuals has not resulted in a decline of prejudice in the Netherlands over time, because all Dutch have become more prejudiced over the years and in particular the higher educated.     

Norwegian child welfare workers' perceptions of emergency placements

Emergency placements in child welfare services have increased during the last 10 years in Norway. At the time of placement, some of these children have been in the child welfare system for several years. Based on qualitative interviews, our study explores Norwegian child welfare workers' perceptions of long‐term cases resulting in emergency placements. The participants reported that they felt they had intervened too late, as it took them too long to understand the severity of the situation. This occurred mainly due to three factors: (a) The work had mainly been based on the parents' premises; (b) having too much distance to the child, as they talked too little with the child, too late in the process; (c) an experience of lacking methodological skills needed and sufficient opportunities to conduct proper observations and assessments; (d) supportive measures were tried for too long, and these measures were not properly evaluated. Giving other professionals' assessments considerable weight in the decision‐making process, and the use of legal language rather than independent, professional assessments, can be seen as another way of distancing themselves from both the family and the decisions being made.     

The construction of ‘religions’ during field visits

ABSTRACT

Field visits to churches, mosques, temples or other buildings used by religious groups, are often valued by students of religious education as an opportunity to engage with the ‘reality’ of the subject: religions as they exist in the world. The Council of Europe text Signposts specifies field visits as an important contributor to the religious dimension of intercultural education, but also identifies issues that need to be addressed by researchers and teachers. During an excursion, students interact with representatives who are likely to represent their tradition in one particular way. The aim of this paper is to investigate how the representation of religion and religiosity is constructed during excursions by representatives and visitors. We have developed an analytical tool based on the interpretive approach and the theory of speech genres. Based on our analysis of documentation related to four field visits with students to places of worship, we suggest how the different speech genres in play during an excursion can help in promoting awareness of different levels of religion: individual, group and the whole tradition.