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51.
We propose a Bayesian approach for inference in a dynamic disequilibrium model. To circumvent the difficulties raised by the Maddala and Nelson (1974) specification in the dynamic case, we analyze a dynamic extended version of the disequilibrium model of Ginsburgh et al. (1980). We develop a Gibbs sampler based on the simulation of the missing observations. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated by an empirical analysis of the Polish credit market, for which we conduct a specification search using the posterior deviance criterion of Spiegelhalter et al. (2002). 相似文献
52.
Design of computer experiments: space filling and beyond 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
When setting up a computer experiment, it has become a standard practice to select the inputs spread out uniformly across
the available space. These so-called space-filling designs are now ubiquitous in corresponding publications and conferences.
The statistical folklore is that such designs have superior properties when it comes to prediction and estimation of emulator
functions. In this paper we want to review the circumstances under which this superiority holds, provide some new arguments
and clarify the motives to go beyond space-filling. An overview over the state of the art of space-filling is introducing
and complementing these results. 相似文献
53.
Luc P. Devroye 《Revue canadienne de statistique》1978,6(2):179-191
If (X1,Y1), …, (Xn,Yn) is a sequence of independent identically distributed Rd × R-valued random vectors then Nadaraya (1964) and Watson (1964) proposed to estimate the regression function m(x) = ? {Y1|X1 = x{ by where K is a known density and {hn} is a sequence of positive numbers satisfying certain properties. In this paper a variety of conditions are given for the strong convergence to 0 of essXsup|mn (X)-m(X)| (here X is independent of the data and distributed as X1). The theorems are valid for all distributions of X1 and for all sequences {hn} satisfying hn → 0 and nh/log n→0. 相似文献
54.
55.
We address the problem of computing integrated mean-squared error (IMSE) optimal designs for interpolation of random fields with known mean and covariance. We assume that the mean squared error is integrated through a discrete measure and restrict the design space to its support. We show that the IMSE and its approximation by spectral truncation can be easily evaluated, which makes their global minimization affordable. Numerical experiments are carried out that illustrate the effectiveness of the approach. 相似文献
56.
Several models have been developed to capture the dynamics of the conditional correlations between time series of financial returns and several studies have shown that the market volatility is a major determinant of the correlations. We extend some models to include explicitly the dependence of the correlations on the market volatility. The models differ by the way—linear or nonlinear, direct or indirect—in which the volatility influences the correlations. Using a wide set of models with two measures of market volatility on two datasets, we find that for some models, the empirical results support to some extent the statistical significance and the economic significance of the volatility effect on the correlations, but the presence of the volatility effect does not improve the forecasting performance of the extended models. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. 相似文献
57.
58.
59.
Luc Sindjoun 《International Review of Sociology》2008,18(1):39-53
Culture and international relations are related in all circumstances. On the one hand, if one refers to the discipline of International Relations, culture is an important parameter that influences knowledge production and paradigmatic elaboration. The discipline of IR is therefore culturally situated. On the other hand, when one is dealing with the phenomenon of international relations, it appears as if all social relations, international relations are orientated by the ways of thinking, beliefs and representations of its actors. At the same time, international relations create opportunities for cultural invention in order to regulate the interaction among actors. 相似文献
60.
This paper explores income distribution modeling approaches for poverty analysis in a CGE micro-simulation context. Income
distribution functional forms such as the lognormal, Pareto, beta distribution and empirical methods are currently used in
CGE models in parallel with the estimation of FGT poverty indices. The particular methods or functional forms used in this
context are not always clearly defined and justified. In this paper, we investigate and provide better criteria for selecting
a functional distribution for poverty analysis. To achieve this, we apply parametric estimation to seven functional forms
and compare the results to a purely “empirical” method. The results showed that no single form is more appropriate in all
instances or for all household subgroups. The choice of a modeling approach should be motivated by a search for best fit and
should be based on appropriate statistical tests. Selecting inappropriate distributional forms can lead to biased results
in terms of poverty analysis. Introducing functional forms in the empirical approach can also provide greater confidence in
the results obtained.
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献