Risk Assessment of Human Listeriosis from Semisoft Cheeses Made from Raw Sheep's Milk in Lazio and Tuscany (Italy)

Semisoft cheese made from raw sheep's milk is traditionally and economically important in southern Europe. However, raw milk cheese is also a known vehicle of human listeriosis and contamination of sheep cheese with Listeria monocytogenes has been reported. In the present study, we have developed and applied a quantitative risk assessment model, based on available evidence and challenge testing, to estimate risk of invasive listeriosis due to consumption of an artisanal sheep cheese made with raw milk collected from a single flock in central Italy. In the model, contamination of milk may originate from the farm environment or from mastitic animals, with potential growth of the pathogen in bulk milk and during cheese ripening. Based on the 48‐day challenge test of a local semisoft raw sheep's milk cheese we found limited growth only during the initial phase of ripening (24 hours) and no growth or limited decline during the following ripening period. In our simulation, in the baseline scenario, 2.2% of cheese servings are estimated to have at least 1 colony forming unit (CFU) per gram. Of these, 15.1% would be above the current E.U. limit of 100 CFU/g (5.2% would exceed 1,000 CFU/g). Risk of invasive listeriosis per random serving is estimated in the 10^?12 range (mean) for healthy adults, and in the 10^?10 range (mean) for vulnerable populations. When small flocks (10–36 animals) are combined with the presence of a sheep with undetected subclinical mastitis, risk of listeriosis increases and such flocks may represent a public health risk.     

Networks for Welfare Provision: Getting a Grip on Processes of Social Exclusion by Evaluating Network Effectiveness

It has been repeatedly stated that the topic of network effectiveness has often been neglected. This has led to a situation of ‘network euphoria’ amongst practitioners and policymakers with regard to the creation of networks as a means to (re‐)organize welfare provision. Starting from a case study of networks for welfare provision in two Belgian cities, this article focuses on the effectiveness of service delivering networks at the client level, which is understood as the contribution of the network in improving the conditions of life of those being served or targeted by the network. Therefore, we focused on the collective efforts via these networks (e.g. by creating a night shelter or by conducting case consultations) to look after a population of homeless people who face multiple problems and are not able yet to benefit from welfare provision. Our findings revealed that these networks were able to realize a ‘collaborative advantage’ by filling in service gaps and by overcoming fragmentation of care. Nevertheless, these networks equally maintained criteria that restricted the accessibility or usefulness of welfare services provided to homeless people. In the concluding section, we highlight some of the factors that could help us to explain our findings and highlight the tension between the effectiveness of networks at the client level and the effectiveness at the organizational level.     

A new estimation method for Weibull-type tails based on the mean excess function

Studying the right tail of a distribution, one can classify the distributions into three classes based on the extreme value index γ$\gamma$. The class γ>0$\gamma >0$ corresponds to Pareto-type or heavy tailed distributions, while γ<0$\gamma <0$ indicates that the underlying distribution has a finite endpoint. The Weibull-type distributions form an important subgroup within the Gumbel class with γ=0$\gamma =0$. The tail behaviour can then be specified using the Weibull tail index. Classical estimators of this index show severe bias. In this paper we present a new estimation approach based on the mean excess function, which exhibits improved bias and mean squared error. The asserted properties are supported by simulation experiments and asymptotic results. Illustrations with real life data sets are provided.     

军事熟语的文化特征

军事熟语是在中华民族的长期语言实践中反复加工锤炼而成的哲理性语言.它具有客观辩证的思维方式:联系发展的动态理念和把握全局的宏观视角;具有历史性:以谋为本的文化倾向,以治为胜的治军传统和追求全胜的最高境界;具有民族性:爱好和平的心理愿望和团结一心的民族气节.     

Social innovation and ICT in social services: European experiences compared

Innovation in social services and social policies in the European welfare systems is an evolving phenomenon stimulated by socio-demographic, cultural and economic changes. Many social service innovations are linked to disruptive technologies, especially the introduction of information and communication technology (ICT). To discuss the effects of disruptive technologies on health and social services, this article first proposes a framework consistent with the social innovation paradigm. Secondly, based on case-studies, it investigates different models of social and health service innovation driven by technology. The article shows advantages and disadvantages of service innovation driven by technology, and offers some final remarks about future challenges for ICT in health and social services. More evidences of effectiveness and efficiency are necessary to promote public and private investment to implement solutions on a wider scale. However, the impacts of technology-based solutions cannot be measured only in terms of economic aspects but also taking into account whether new technologies really provide the opportunity for citizens to have a better life and advocacy for their rights.     

A note on the posterior inference for the Yule–Simon distribution

The Yule–Simon distribution has been out of the radar of the Bayesian community, so far. In this note, we propose an explicit Gibbs sampling scheme when a Gamma prior is chosen for the shape parameter. The performance of the algorithm is illustrated with simulation studies, including count data regression, and a real data application to text analysis. We compare our proposal to the frequentist counterparts showing better performance of our algorithm when a small sample size is considered.     

Copulas related to piecewise monotone functions of the interval and associated processes

In this work, we derive the copulas related to vectors obtained from the so-called chaotic stochastic processes. These are defined by the iteration of certain piecewise monotone functions of the interval [0, 1] to some initial random variable. We study some of its properties and present some examples. Since often these types of copulas do not have closed formulas, we provide a general approximation method which converges uniformly to the true copula. Our results cover a wide class of processes, including the so-called Manneville–Pomeau processes. The general theory is applied to the parametric estimation in certain chaotic processes. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also presented.     

A Mann–Whitney type effect measure of interaction for factorial designs

We propose a measure for interaction for factorial designs that is formulated in terms of a probability similar to the effect size of the Mann–Whitney test. It is shown how asymptotic confidence intervals can be obtained for the effect size and how a statistical test can be constructed. We further show how the test is related to the test proposed by Bhapkar and Gore [Sankhya A, 36:261–272 (1974)]. The results of a simulation study indicate that the test has good power properties and illustrate when the asymptotic approximations are adequate. The effect size is demonstrated on an example dataset.     

Who does not cut down? Comparing characteristics and drinking motives of drinkers and abstainers during the exam periods

Objective: Drinking alcohol during the exams can affect academic performance and future career options, but is rarely investigated. Drinking motives, sociodemographics and personality characteristics are investigated in nonabstainers and weekly drinkers during the exams. Participants: 7,181 Belgian university students who anonymously responded to an email invitation to an online survey. Methods: Logistic regressions and mixed design analysis of variance on cross-sectional data. Results: One-third of the students continued drinking during the exams, with 40% drinking weekly. Nonabstainers were mainly men, elder, internally motivated when drinking, and housed with parents or independently. Weekly drinkers were similar, except mainly housed in student apartments or independently. Personality characteristics were nonsignificant. All drinking motives were less pronounced during the exams, with smaller differences for internal motives. Conclusions: Mainly linked to internal drinking motives, drinking during the exams in higher education is underestimated. The characteristics and motives of students doing so can be used in future interventions.