A note on the moments of stochastic shrinkage parameters in ridge regression

The purpose of this note is to gain insight on the performance of two well known operational Ridge Regression estimators by deriving the moments of their stochastic shrinkage parameters. We also show that, under certain conditions, one of them has bounded moments.     

Criminal history and assault of dating partners: the role of type of prior crime, age of onset, and gender

Some studies of assaults on intimate partners have found that most of the perpetrators are not violent outside the family, which suggests a specialized type of crime. However, other studies found domestic violence offenders tend to have extensive criminal histories. To further investigate the extent to which partner assaults are part of a more general pattern of criminal behavior or a specialized type of crime, we studied the dating relationships of 653 university students. Thirty-one percent reported assaulting a partner in the previous 12 months. The rate of assault on partners by females did not differ significantly for males (29%) and females (32%). We also found high rates of other self-reported crime, and much higher rates by males. For example, over one half of the male students and almost one third of the female students reported having stolen money. The male students reported an average of 3.4 crimes committed, and the female students an average of 1.4 crimes. These high crime rates and gender differences are consistent with many previous studies. Logistic regression analysis revealed that a history of prior criminal acts is associated with an increased probability of assaulting a partner. The relationship was greater when there was prior violent crime compared to property crime, when there was early onset of criminal behavior, and when the offender was female. The implications of the findings for understanding partner assaults, criminal careers, and gender differences in the etiology of violence against intimate partners are discussed.     

20 Questions of Gamblers Anonymous: A Psychometric Study with Population of Spain

The authors present a psychometric study of the questionnaire proposed by the Gamblers Anonymous organization for the self-assessment of problem gambling. The study was carried out in Spain with two samples: one of 127 problem gamblers (mean age: 41.67; sex: 78.7% men; mean duration of the problem: 5 years) and the other of 142 social gamblers (mean age: 38.46; sex: 60% men). The questionnaire was self-applied, in the presence of one of the investigators in case any doubts arose. The results indicate that it is a good screening instrument, with high reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.94), good covergent validity (the correlation with the SOGS questionnaire is high (r = 0.94; p < 0.001)), good factorial validity (the questionnaire's structure is unidimensional and coherent (just one factor explains more than 50% of the variance)), and its discriminative power is high (diagnostic efficacy = 98.88%). The study offers a comparative analysis of this instrument with other measures of problem gambling, emphasizing its extraordinary performance.     

Fractional integration and impulse responses: a bivariate application to real output in the USA and four Scandinavian countries

This article analyzes impulse response functions in the context of vector fractionally integrated time series. We derive analytically the restrictions required to identify the structural-form system. As an illustration of the recommended procedure, we carry out an empirical application based on a bivariate system including real output in the USA and, in turn, in one of the four Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden). The empirical results appear to be sensitive, to some extent, to the specification of the stochastic process driving the disturbances, but generally a positive shock to US output has a positive effect on the Scandinavian countries, which tend to disappear in the long run.     

Urban risks due to climate change in the Andean municipality of Pasto,Colombia: A Bayesian network approach

The current trends of climate change will increase people's exposure to urban risks related to events such as landslides, floods, forest fires, food production, health, and water availability, which are stochastic and very localized in nature. This research uses a Bayesian network (BN) approach to analyze the intensity of such urban risks for the Andean municipality of Pasto, Colombia, under climate change scenarios. The stochastic BN model is linked to correlational models and local scenarios of representative concentration trajectories (RCP) to project the possible risks to which the municipality of Pasto will be exposed in the future. The results show significant risks in crop yields, food security, water availability and disaster risks, but no significant risks on the incidence of acute diarrheal diseases (ADD) and acute respiratory infections (ARI), whereas positive outcomes are likely to occur in livestock production, influenced by population growth. The advantage of the BN approach is the possibility of updating beliefs in the probabilities of occurrence of events, especially in developing, intermediate cities with information-limited contexts.     

La flexibilité, une arme contre le chômage? Analyse empirique du marché du travail espagnol

L'Espagne a connu en 2010 et 2012 deux réformes majeures du marché du travail. Celles-ci reposaient sur l'idée qu'il suffisait d'accroître la flexibilité du travail et de décentraliser la négociation collective pour faire baisser le chômage (thèse de la flexibilité). Les auteurs estiment pour leur part que le comportement du chômage dépend largement de la demande et de la structure sectorielle de l'économie (thèse structurelle). Ils évaluent l'apport de ces deux hypothèses dans une analyse reposant sur des données de panel de niveau infranational. Leurs résultats tendent à infirmer la thèse de la flexibilité et font ressortir le rôle primordial des facteurs cycliques et structurels.     

Labour market turnover in Latin America: How intensive is it and to what extent does it differ across countries?

The study of labour market turnover is particularly significant in Latin America, which is characterized by marked economic cycles and limited social protection coverage. This article estimates the intensity of transitions from employment in six countries in Latin America in the new millennium and decomposes the differences observed, furthermore evaluating the employment destinations of workers making such transitions. The countries under analysis show very different turnover rates, which are mostly explained by a dissimilar incidence of informal and temporary employment. In all cases, a large share of job exits imply transitions to precarious jobs or unemployment.     

A theory of “popular political legitimation”: A dual-process model approach to legitimation and political socialization

How do everyday people—or actors who do not occupy positions of political authority—legitimate political systems? Responding to this question, I use work from sociology, political science, and cognitive science to build a theory of “Popular Political Legitimation” (PPL)—defined as everyday people's legitimation of a political system. To answer how PPL happens, we must answer two sub-questions that address legitimacy as a normative phenomenon: 1) What are the processes of socialization through which individuals learn the norms, widely held beliefs, and values that legitimate a political system? 2) How do individuals subsequently use these norms, widely held beliefs, and/or values in their own legitimations of a political system? Thus, we see that a model of socialization is central to understanding how PPL happens. I proceed in four steps. First, I review the literature on political legitimation. Next, I review the literature on political socialization. Third, to address gaps in the two aforementioned literatures concerning a model of socialization that explains legitimation, I turn to neuroscience (for reviews see Greene, 2017; Cushman, 2020) and psychology to review models of socialization and rationalization. Finally, I synthesize these literatures to develop a theory of political socialization and how it generates PPL.     

The Moral Economy of Neoliberalism: How Voters Use Neoliberal Ideology to (De)Legitimate Undocumented Worker Access to Labor Markets

Neoliberalism is prevalent in American life. While researchers have documented the use of neoliberal ideology in institutional and macrolevel policy contexts, they have yet to investigate how voters use neoliberal ideology to legitimate their position on economic policy. I use data from semi‐structured interviews with 85 Tucsonans about why they voted the way they did on Proposition 202 (2008): “Arizona Stop Illegal Hiring”—which sought to reregulate undocumented worker labor market access—to address this gap. I found evidence of two distinct neoliberal ideological legitimations: “fair market competition” and “individual responsibility.” Furthermore, I use these data to shed light on the debate over whether neoliberalism spans partisan affiliation or converges with American conservatism. I found that voters across party lines who supported the measure paired neoliberal legitimations with conservative legitimations. We can interpret this bipartisan use of neoliberal ideology as evidence of a neoliberal “moral economy”—or consensus about the moral principles in which market action is embedded. Evidence of this moral economy indicates that moral principles from neoliberal ideology are simultaneously bipartisan and converge with American conservatism. These findings suggest that there could be a broader moral consensus among voters concerning the legitimacy of anti‐immigration economic policies.     

Are there domino effects between consumers' ordinary and ‘green’ practices? An analysis of quantitative data from a sensitisation campaign on personal carbon footprint

This paper studies how consumers' reported practices related to food, energy use in housing, daily mobility, and tourism are combined and structured. Social practice theories are the main theoretical framework of this research. Data are drawn from a sensitisation campaign run by the WWF-Belgium and the methods developed to attempt to translate the theoretical focus to practices. Results show that both the low number of ‘green’ practices reported and the multiplicity of combinations of practices indicate a rather important compartmentalisation of ‘green’ practices and seem to refute the hypothesis of vast domino effects in these four different areas. In addition, a wider openness to information on environmentally friendlier practices is associated with a larger number of such practices, which raises questions about the design of such campaigns. Finally, there is no conventionalised way of linking practices and commitments taken by the respondents to reduce their environmental impact. A few policy recommendations are derived for sensitisation campaigns that often assume domino effects between ‘green’ practices, and for tools dealing with personal carbon awareness.