Assessing readiness to work from a stages of change perspective: implications for return to work

The Lam Assessment on Stages of Employment Readiness (LASER) was developed to assess welfare recipients' employment readiness. The LASER consists of 14 items corresponding to Prochaska's stages of change model (Prochaska, DiClemente and Norcross, 1992). A sample of 149 welfare recipients from a work training program participated in the study. The Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) supported the three factors structure corresponding to Prochaska's Pre-Contemplation, Contemplation, and Action stages. A cluster analysis classified the sample into three groups according to their LASER scores. A six months follow-up on employment outcomes showed that those who were in Pre-contemplation stage had the poorest employment outcome (25%), those who were in the Action stage had the best outcome (56%) and those in the Contemplation stage were in between (38%). Implications for work rehabilitation and treatment matching were discussed.     

Age,Experience, and Schooling: Decomposing Earnings Inequality in the United States and Brazil*

This article analyzes age and experience profiles of earnings inequality for U.S. and Brazilian males. Decomposition of the inequality profiles using a standard human capital earnings equation clarifies the determinants of cross-sectional inequality profiles and demonstrates a number of important differences in the shape of the two countries' profiles and in their underlying components. Most dramatic are Brazil's higher returns to schooling and higher variance in years of schooling, both factors contributing to the significantly higher level of income inequality in Brazil. Changes in the distribution of schooling across cohorts are shown to play a central role in explaining cross-sectional inequality profiles within each country and differences in earnings inequality in the United States and Brazil.     

The effects of temperature on human fertility

Monthly birth and temperature data for a variety of states and countries are used to estimate the effect of short-run temperature fluctuations on fertility. Regressions of monthly births on a flexible specification of lagged monthly temperature show that temperature has quantitatively important effects on both seasonal and nonseasonal variation in births. Summer temperature extremes reduce conceptions in the southern United States, explaining a substantial part of the observed seasonal birth pattern. Extreme cold shows no evidence of affecting conceptions. The results also show significant seasonality in births even after accounting for temperature. Controls for monthly temperature do not explain the persistent spring peak in births in northern Europe. This finding suggests that other factors play an important role.     

Recovering event histories by cubic spline interpolation

If event data are recorded in discrete intervals of time, errors are introduced when the data are converted from the unit in which they were recorded, such as date, to another unit such as age or duration. The problem is illustrated by the inconsistent age at marriage schedules published by 2 recent US censuses. This paper develops a general method for treating problems of this type using cubic spline interpolation. The method is used to adjust US age at marriage schedules, explaining a substantial part of the discrepancy in the 1960 and 1970 censuses.     

Nonparametric Estimation of Multiplicative Counting Process Intensity Functions with an Application to the Beijing SARS Epidemic

The local polynomial methods and martingale estimating equations are used to develop closed form estimators of the intensity function and its derivatives for multiplicative counting process models. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators are established. The estimator generalizes that proposed by Ramlau-Hansen (1983 Ramlau-Hansen , H. ( 1983 ). Smoothing counting process intensities by means of kernel function . Ann. Statist. 11 ( 2 ): 453 – 466 . [Google Scholar]) with a smaller bias than the Ramlau-Hansen intensity estimator. The derivative estimators give smoother estimates than the Ramlau-Hansen derivative estimators. The proposed estimators are applied to analyze the infection rate and its derivatives of the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Beijing, China.     

The Influence of Religiosity on Gambling Participation

Gambling is now a popular legal activity among people around the world. Despite numerous studies on individuals’ gambling behavior, few researchers examine the influence of religiosity on gambling participation. This study investigated the effect of religiosity, measured in terms of frequency of religious participation and importance of faith, on gambling participation across four different types of games: casino, track, lottery, and bingo. Using data collected by the National Gambling Impact Study Commission in 1999, the study found that there was indeed a significant difference in the frequency of religious participation between gamblers and non-gamblers. Moreover, it seemed like the more types of games one played, the lower was their frequency of religious participation. The importance of faith, however, did not seem to have a significant impact on gambling participation. The implications of these findings to businesses and public policy makers were discussed.     

Generalized Supremum Tests for the Equality of Cause Specific Hazard Rates

In this paper we propose two new classes of asymptotically distribution-free Renyi-type tests for testing the equality of two risks in a competing risk model with possible censoring. This work extends the work of Aly, Kochar and McKeague [1994, Journal of American Statistical Association, 89, 994–999] and many of the existing tests for this problem belong to these newly proposed classes. The asymptotic properties of the proposed tests are investigated. Simulation studies are done to compare the performance with existing tests. A competing risks data set is analyzed to demonstrate the usefulness of the procedure.     

The future for wool

Single dimensional projections are inadequate to determine what the future holds. A wide variety of economic, technological and social changes will influence the future environment for wool and other fibres. In these circumstances, and bearing in mind that, for planning purposes, strategic assumptions are often markedly superior to firm predictions, a set of alternative scenarios is a useful instrument. Consideration of some brief scenarios leads to the conclusion that wool's future depends, in no small measure, upon the actions of the wool-growing industry and governments of wool exporting countries.