Owner motivation and land use on landed estates in the north-west Highlands of Scotland

Although rarely defined, the terms misuse and underuse have been widely used in relation to the land uses of large Highland estates. This paper considers the results of a study of estates in north-west Sutherland which examined the links between owner motivation and land use. The estates are classified according to land use and use intensity, and differences in these are considered as the product of owner motivations and management objectives, and of the financial backgrounds of owners.The dominant owner motivation is private enjoyment, particularly on sporting estates. Management structures are typically simple, reflecting the restricted range of uses. Most decision-makers are non-resident and their management input is more important on commercially-orientated estates than on those associated with private sport. Government agencies, except those associated with grants and subsidies, have little influence on management: owner motivation is more important.Most estates in the survey identified development potential, but few had invested in developments. Amenity rather than economic potential, particularly on sporting estates, is the most important constraint. More commercially-orientated estates generated investment capital internally from their enterprises. There seems to be a growing difference between estates associated with private sport and all other types of estates. Even on land of similar quality, the latter are expanding their enterprises, while the former are contracting.In the absence of a coherent public policy framework, landholders are the rural decision-makers. If land development and employment creation are to be pursued in the rural Highlands, a more positive and interventionist approach is required.     

A kalman filter in the presence of outliers

A Kalman Filtering algorithm which is robust to observational outliers is developed by assuming that the measurement error may come from either one of two Normal distributions, and that the transition between these distributions is governed by a Markov Chain. The resulting algorithm is very simple, and consists of two parallel Kalman Filters having different gains. The state estimate is obtained as a weighted average of the estimates from the two parallel filters, where the weights are the posterior probabilities that the current observation comes from either of the two distributions. The large improvements obtained by this Robust Kalman Filter in the presence of outliers is demonstrated with examples.     

Perception of Risks From Electromagnetic Fields: A Psychometric Evaluation of a Risk-Communication Approach

Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reading the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs about the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed.     

Practice and Research in Career Counseling and Development—2000

The authors summarize the career counseling and development literature that appeared during 2000 in refereed journals, book chapters, and full‐length books. The review of literature is divided into 5 major categories: (a) theoretical and conceptual advances, (b) career counseling and development of identified populations, (c) assessment in career counseling and development, (d) career counseling programs and interventions, and (e) resources for the professional development of career counselors and vocational psychologists.     

A Stakeholder Analysis of Admission in a Baccalaureate Social Work Program

Social work programs shape the profession through their admission practices. A stakeholder analysis of a baccalaureate social work program was conducted to seek stakeholder perspectives on admission practices through interviews and focus groups with 53 participants representing seven stakeholder groups. Results suggest that external stakeholders such as field instructors, social service employers, and adjunct faculty members are not widely represented in the BSW admission process. Four categories of stake-holder expectations for social work admission were found: gatekeeping for professional suitability, a process of self-reflection for students, an indicator of educational quality for the social work program, and progression of students’ professional socialization as a social worker. Findings provide insights to inform faculty as they oversee social work admission.     

What users think about computer models

This paper presents the findings of a survey of the EPS user base in the U.K. The objective of the survey was to develop improvements in corporate modelling in the light of the response. It is inevitably biased towards large companies with in-house facilities, but as the results make useful comments on the use of financial modelling systems in general use.     

Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts about Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality

Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The “analytic system” uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The “experiential system” is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange‐smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed “doses of feeling” into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too “coldly rational”? This article addresses these important questions.     

Judged Lethality: How Much People Seem to Know Depends Upon How They Are Asked

Four formally equivalent response modes were used to elicit laypeople's beliefs regarding the lethality of various potential causes of death. Results showed that respondents had an articulated core of beliefs about lethality that yielded similar orderings of maladies by lethality regardless of the response mode used. Moreover, this subjective ordering was fairly similar to that revealed by public health statistics. However, the absolute estimates of lethality produced by the different response modes varied enormously. Depending upon the mode used, respondents were seen to greatly overestimate or greatly underestimate lethality. The implications of these discrepancies for public education and risk analysis are explored.