Predictors of Relapse in Problem Gambling: A Prospective Cohort Study

To explore the variation of predictors of relapse in treatment and support seeking gamblers. A prospective cohort study with 158 treatment and support seeking problem gamblers in South Australia. Key measures were selected using a consensus process with international experts in problem gambling and related addictions. The outcome measures were Victorian Gambling Screen (VGS) and behaviours related to gambling. Potential predictors were gambling related cognitions and urge, emotional disturbance, social support, sensation seeking traits, and levels of work and social functioning. Mean age of participants was 44 years (SD = 12.92 years) and 85 (54 %) were male. Median time for participants enrolment in the study was 8.38 months (IQR = 2.57 months). Patterns of completed measures for points in time included 116 (73.4 %) with at least a 3 month follow-up. Using generalised mixed-effects regression models we found gambling related urge was significantly associated with relapse in problem gambling as measured by VGS (OR 1.29; 95 % CI 1.12–1.49) and gambling behaviours (OR 1.16; 95 % CI 1.06–1.27). Gambling related cognitions were also significantly associated with VGS (OR 1.06; 95 % CI 1.01–1.12). There is consistent association between urge to gamble and relapse in problem gambling but estimates for other potential predictors may have been attenuated because of methodological limitations. This study also highlighted the challenges presented from a cohort study of treatment and support seeking problem gamblers.     

Single Case Probabilities and the Social World: The Application of Popper's Propensity Interpretation

This paper is a re-examination of Popper's propensity interpretation of probability in respect of its potential methodological value in social science. A long standing problem for the (standard) frequency interpretation of probability is that whilst it is able to treat both aggregate and individual phenomena as having measurable properties, it cannot explain the ontological relationship between such concrete individual cases and aggregates. Popper's interpretation treats single cases as both real, but also as realisations of a propensity to occur. The frequency and propensity interpretations are compared and whilst some common objections raised must be upheld, they do not devalue the importance of the propensity interpretation as at least a metaphysical basis for probabilistic claims in social science. However the value of the approach may also lie in its methodological potential. Here I sugest that single case probabilities must be analysed in terms of the anterior probabilities of prior constituent events. In this I move beyond Popper's own programme, but suggest that such a move is theoretically compatible with recent complexity approaches in social science and goes some way toward meeting anti-naturalist concerns about intentionality.     

Correlates of internalized homophobia and homosexual identity formation in a sample of gay men

Eighty-six behaviourally homosexual men, at various stages of homosexual identity formation (HIF), were participants in a study that examined correlates of internalized homophobia (IH) and HIF. Results indicated higher levels of internalized homophobia were correlated with lower stages of HIF. In addition, internalized homophobia was significantly related to lower levels of self-esteem, to lower levels of self-concepts of physical appearance and emotional stability, and to higher levels of sex guilt. Post hoc regression analysis revealed that perceived level of repression against homosexuals predicted internalized homophobia and sex-guilt, which were mediator variables to the resolution of HIF. This research supports theory, that suggests internalized homophobia is a major developmental difficulty in gay men.     

The Impact of Organizational Form on Gendered Labour Markets in Engineering and Law

It is well known that occupations are differentially gendered and explanations for such gendering usually focus on structure and process in the labour market. However little is known of the fine detail of the way in which labour markets perform for particular occupations in particular local contexts. This article is based on micro-sociological research on the professional labour markets for law and engineering professionals in the city of Hobart, Australia. It addresses a discrepancy in women's participation and promotion rates in each of these professions: the proportion of women in high positions in engineering matches their educational qualification rates while that in law is considerably lower than educational qualification rates would suggest. The paper proposes that the explanation can be found in the respective organizational patterns of the two professions. Engineering is practised in large-scale bureaucratic organizations where formal rules govern recruitment and promotion, where equal opportunities legislation literally applies, and where a strict separation is maintained between public and domestic spheres. By contrast, law is practised in collegial partnerships where informal judgements govern recruitment and promotion, where the letter of equal opportunities legislation need not be applied, and where advancement depends on the subordination of the domestic to the public sphere.